Category: AG Report

Needed Break From The Rain…

It’s been a very wet July across these parts. Specifically talking about Indianapolis, we’re running a whopping 8.5″ above normal, month-to-date!     Cool and wet has been the theme across…

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At Odds With Some Of The Modeling In The Mid/ Long Range…

Right off the bat, we tend to lean more in the direction of the 12z GFS and its’ associated cooler look next week, rather than the warm European. It’s a…

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AG Weather Report: 6.17.15

June has gotten off to a warm start across the region.   It’s been a wet month (to date) across northern regions of our #AGwx viewing area.      Bill’s remnant moisture…

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Ag Weather Report: 6/9/15

From time to time we like to post some of our AG weather reports here as opposed to our weekly updates via e-mail.  (BTW, if you’re interested in more information around this feature, please e-mail bill@indywx.com).

Rains the past couple of days have been beneficial for many areas that were dry in May.  (Here’s a hint, there’s more where that came from).

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2Unfortunately, some of that heavy rain came with hail damage- particularly across northern IN Monday afternoon.

Abnormally dry conditions have continued to shrink over the region over the past couple weeks.   May and early June is a crucial time in setting the tone for the summer/ early fall months ahead.  This, of course, is fantastic news.

10As we progress ahead into the second half of the week, additional severe threats will present themselves.  Similar to Monday, hail and damaging winds are of greatest concerns in our particular Ag-weather viewing area (#IAwx, #INwx, #ILwx, #OHwx).

Day 2- Wednesday

3Day 3- Thursday

4As we move forward, a very warm to hot and humid pattern will settle in o/ the course of the next 7-14 days (and beyond).  In looking at the latest European Weeklies (can’t post here due to licensing issues) the warmer than normal pattern and wetter than normal regime is likely to continue through the rest of the month.  It’s not so much the high temperatures in terms of absolutes, but the combination of wet ground (humid and sultry) and warmer overnight lows that will really help power the warmer than normal period in the coming couple weeks.

6In the shorter term, heat will really expand across the region mid week, including many of the first 90 degree readings of the season for most folks.  The European shows the ridge flexing it’s muscle yet again into early next week.

7A very humid time of things will continue, due to the recent wet times and more rain ahead.  Aside from the storm threat(s) mid week, Friday into Saturday will also prove to offer a smattering of thunderstorms as a cold front moves in and stalls south before returning north Sunday.

Upcoming 10-day rainfall numbers are respectable, including 2″-3″ totals for many, with locally heavier amounts a good bet where storms train.

5Note the wet pattern shown deeper into June off the CFSv2:

wk1.wk2_20150608.NAThe JAMSTEC shows the wet pattern into the heart of the summer (June, July, August) and would argue against any idea of major long-lasting heat for the heart of the summer.

8BTW- for you winter lovers out there, here’s a little something to entertain you.  The JAMSTEC is onboard for another “fun” winter ahead.  Factor in those warm NPAC anomalies and a weakening El Nino into the winter and the stage very well may be set for wintry fun and games…  Long way to go here, however… 🙂

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Warm May On The Way?

As our attention shifts to May, we wanted to share some of our thoughts on the upcoming month. Due to licensing issues, we’re not allowed to share all of the forecast models that we look at here with you, but did want to give you an idea of some of the data we’re looking at.

The month is likely to open up with an anomalous pattern in place, including one that will support a rather significant coastal storm along the SE coast.  That said, as we progress a bit deeper into the month, guidance suggests a much warmer pattern awaits for those locally across the Ohio Valley and Mid West.

Using a combination of model guidance, here’s an idea of what we’re projecting the upper air pattern to look like as we open the month and progress into the middle of the month.

May1

May10th

As a whole, the majority of forecast data, including analogs of weak El Nino events of the past would imply a warmer than normal May is on the way.  Note the warmer anomalies across the mid South and Ohio Valley region.

Screen Shot 2015-04-26 at 9.23.21 AM

 

 

 

 

 

The CFSv2 also is in agreement with the warm idea for May.  Areas where cooler air will be more likely?  The SW and northern tier regions.


Precipitation for April has been running above normal across our region and across the southeast, as a whole.  This is a good sign if you don’t like exceptionally hot and dry summers.  Precipitation this time of year can set the tone for both as we move into the summer months ahead.

  

For the month of May, we anticipate near normal precipitation (right around 5″), but stress that precipitation isn’t always uniform this time of year as thunderstorms can dump locally heavier totals.

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