An upper level low pressure system will track northeast today into tonight, and as it does, look for more numerous showers and embedded thunder to develop. Some localized heavier downpours are a good bet this evening across central Indiana.
Otherwise, look for considerable cloudiness and highs topping out in the lower 70s today.
While we’ll have to contend with a few showers Saturday, overall, the day should be drier compared to today and what lies ahead Sunday. Speaking of Sunday, we’re monitoring the potential of a couple of storms reaching strong to severe levels to close the weekend. The Storm Prediction Center includes central portions of the state in a “marginal” risk of severe with their update Friday morning. It wouldn’t surprise us if a portion of the marginal risk is upgraded to a “slight” risk in future updates. We’ll fine tune storm timing over the next 24 hours.
As we look ahead to the end of May, there really aren’t any significant changes to the overall warmer than normal theme we’ve enjoyed so far this month. Longer range guidance off of the European ensemble continues to support broad scale upper ridging across the Mid West and Ohio Valley and a corresponding warmer than average regime. From a precipitation perspective, the next couple of weeks do look more active compared to the dry start to the month. Case in point, the balance of the upcoming week will be dominated by a stalled frontal boundary. While we’ll have to fine tune exactly where the front stalls, daily chances of showers and thunderstorms (scattered fashion) can be expected.
At the surface, all three major global models agree on warmth in the long range period, including the GEFS, EPS, and CFSv2:
Guidance suggests below average precipitation during the period. With broad scale ridging in place, we agree on a drier theme compared to normal. While trying to put our finger on the flip from the prolonged cold to warmer was difficult to nail down from March and April, May always looked like a drier than average month from several weeks out. (One note is the potential of active times across the Great Lakes region as “sudden summer” gains steam to the south and stubborn chill refuses to let go to our north. The gradient would promote heavier than normal precipitation relative to average).
Given the agreement in the data, along with some additional pattern drivers, we continue to believe the medium to longer term period (including mid and late May) will feature an overall warmer than average pattern along with drier than normal conditions.
Drier and slightly cooler air will build in as we open the new work week. Overnight lows will fall into the mid and upper 40s both Monday and Tuesday mornings. High pressure will supply plentiful sunshine.
A broad southwesterly air flow will return as we progress through the latter stages of the work week and head into next weekend. We’ll certainly notice an uptick in humidity by Thursday and that summer-like feel will remain into the weekend. The increased moisture will also result in periods of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Expect “splash and dash” variety of storms in a daily fashion beginning Wednesday evening.
While scattered storms will be on the radar daily from midweek on, significant widespread rainfall isn’t expected. There will be some locally heavier amounts, but for the most part across central Indiana, 7-day totals won’t exceed three quarters of an inch.
…and a year-to-date that looks like this:
…sustained warmth is music to the ears of many Hoosiers! Thankfully, the balance of the upcoming (10) days will feature warmer than average conditions, as illustrated by the latest European ensemble data.
This will include multiple days with high temperatures rising into the 80s over the upcoming 10-day stretch (Tuesday and Wednesday and again next Monday through Wednesday).
As for rainfall totals, it still appears widespread amounts will check-in in the half inch to one inch range, but a few locally heavier amounts can be expected.
Models continue to dry us out in time for the weekend and all of those important Cinco de Mayo/ Derby plans. An increasingly sunny sky will be with us along with highs in the middle 70s Saturday afternoon! Can you say “perfection?”