While a trough settles into the West, the eastern portion of the country will have to deal with a pesky cut off low for a good chunk of the forecast period.
Well above normal temperatures will dominate the northern tier, Plains, and East through the period while cooler conditions settle into the West.
A wet pattern will be associated with the cut off low across the Deep South and Ohio Valley. Wetter conditions will also develop across the West.
We forecast central Indiana to pick up 0.50″ to 1″ of rain in the 7-day forecast period with localized heavier totals.
Forecast Period: 10.03.21 through 10.10.21
A stubborn cut off low pressure system will keep things unsettled around these parts for a good chunk of the forecast period. It certainly won’t rain the entire period, but compared to the past couple of weeks, most will notice a drastic difference in the wetter conditions. We think greatest coverage of rain will come today and midweek. By this time next week, most central Indiana rain gauges can expect to tack on an additional 0.50″ to 1″ of rain with locally heavier totals.
The other big story by late in the week will be an expanding ridge of high pressure. This will keep our region well above normal from a temperature perspective, including the likelihood of multiple days of 80°+ in the 6-10 day stretch. This will be driven by a strongly negative PNA and positive EPO and is supported by October La Ninas from the past (analogs). The persistent warmer than normal regime shouldn’t really go anywhere in the longer range. It’s not until we get to the 2nd half of November (and beyond) when we believe a more profound shift to more persistent cold lurks.
A ridge will expand across the northern Plains and upper Midwest during the 7-day forecast period ahead. Meanwhile, a ‘mean’ trough will take up shop across the Northeast and the Pacific Northwest.
Well above normal (near record) heat will center itself across the central and northern Plains into the upper Midwest. Overall, a slightly warmer than normal period is ahead for a good chunk of the country, front loaded early week.
Well above normal precipitation is expected across the southern Plains and southern Rocky Mountain region, into the Four Corners. Widespread drier than average conditions can be expected across the East.
A weak system will approach our region late week with the potential of some light rain (0.10″ to 0.25″ type stuff). Otherwise, it’s a quiet pattern, locally.
Forecast Period: 09.26.21 through 10.03.21
A very quiet weather pattern will dominate the 7-day forecast period. Plentiful sunshine and warmer temperatures can be expected through the early and middle part of the work week before we cool closer to normal late in the period. While there’s plenty of disagreement, the GFS is a little more bullish on bringing in a weak storm system late in the period that could* produce a few showers Friday. If this does, indeed, take shape, it only appears as if we’re looking at 0.10″ to 0.25″ type rainfall. We’ll keep an eye on things. Otherwise, it’s a dry and very uneventful stretch ahead over the upcoming 7 days.
A trough will settle into the eastern portion of the country as we move into the 2nd half of the week. Meanwhile, ridging will expand across the West.
Warmer than normal conditions will dominate the period across the West and northern tier while cooler than average temperatures settle into the Ohio Valley and Southeast.
Well above normal rainfall is expected in the Ohio Valley into the eastern Great Lakes.
We forecast between 2″ and 3″ of rain to fall across central Indiana in the upcoming 7-day period- heaviest totals are expiated across far eastern parts of the state.
Forecast Period: 09.19.21 through 09.26.21
A much more active weather pattern will take control of the region during the above mentioned forecast period. An area of low pressure will track north into the Ohio Valley during the overnight and Monday morning which will help lead to an expanding area of rain and embedded thunder to kick off the work week. Rain is expected to be most widespread across the southern half of the state early in the day before making progress north. As this is taking place, a cold front will take aim on the region from the west, and should push through the Hoosier state Tuesday with a line of showers and thunderstorms. While there could be a couple of stronger storms widespread severe weather isn’t expected. Perhaps what will be a bigger “headache” will have to do with the evolution of things as the front is moving east across Indiana. A wave of low pressure is expected to develop to our south Tuesday before lifting north…
As of Sunday evening, two of our more trusted forecast models (GFS and European) differ with respect to exactly where the developing surface low will track (GFS is more progressive while the European is slower). Regardless, MUCH cooler air will pour into the region through the middle of the week. Should the slower European solution (our lean at the moment) come to fruition, then we’re looking at a midweek rain out, combined with October-like daytime temperatures. Chili weather, anyone?! Stay tuned for future updates as we fine tune things for midweek. High pressure will return in time for the weekend, allowing sunshine and pleasant fall temperatures to claim headlines.
A broad upper ridge will take up shop in the week ahead across the Ohio Valley and Northeast. Meanwhile, a trough will settle into the Northwest. Well above normal temperatures can be expected across the central portion of the country, extending from the West Coast into the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic. Below normal temperatures will be found across the Pacific Northwest and along the Gulf Coast. An active weather pattern is on deck across the northwest Gulf and eastern Great Lakes. Elsewhere, generally quiet times are expected.We think around 0.50” of rain will fall during the forecast period (most likely not until late in the week).
Forecast Period: 09.11.21 through 09.18.21
A quiet weather pattern is expected to dominate this forecast period, locally. A southwesterly airflow will draw unseasonably warm and muggy air northward today, but really begin to be felt as we progress into early next week. We aren’t talking about organized precipitation chances until late in the forecast period (centered on Friday and next Saturday) as a cold front slowly begins to sink south into the area. Until then, an extended period of warm and increasingly humid air will dominate the weather headlines.
The upper air pattern this week will feature a trough across the Northeast and Great Lakes with an upper ridge anchored over the Four Corners.
Temperatures will run below average from the Ohio Valley into the MS Valley, with well above normal temperatures expected across the West.
Most of the country can expect below to well below average precipitation in the week ahead. The one exception? Northern New England.
We only forecast 0.10″ to 0.25″ of rain here in central Indiana during the 7-day period.
Forecast Period: 09.05.21 through 09.12.21
A very quiet weather pattern will settle into the region as we go through the upcoming week. The one exception to that is Tuesday night as a cold front quickly passes through the area. Moisture levels will return ever so slightly ahead of the boundary and may be enough to produce a couple of storms Tuesday evening (widely scattered coverage). The front will help to reinforce the dry airmass in place, along with provide cooler temperatures for mid and late week. As we look ahead beyond this week, indications are that things will moderate and turn a bit more active (though that’s admittedly not saying much, considering just how quiet things will be this week).
