Category: AG Report

May 30

Weekly #AGwx And #Severe Weather Outlook…

Weekly Highlights:

I. May ends and June opens with well below normal temperatures and humidity levels.

II. Summer pattern emerges during the 2nd half of next week, along with a return of hefty storms.

The upcoming 7-day period will be dominated by 2 distinct patterns: cool & refreshing (now through Tue.) and hot/ sticky (Wed. on). Overall, this will lead to a week that “averages out” close to normal.
While the pattern looks dry overall (and certainly will be up until the middle of next week), there’s the potential of storm clusters diving in from the northwest and providing heavy rain late in the period.
We’re actually more bullish on the precipitation front than what models currently portray. We’re going with a 7-day total between 1”-2” across central Indiana- most of which falls in the Wednesday-Friday time frame.
The Storm Prediction Center doesn’t currently outline a threat of severe weather in the upcoming period. However, that may change as we get closer to the back half of the week.

Forecast Period: 05.30.20 through 06.06.20

Cool, Canadian high pressure will dominate our weekend weather, continuing into early parts of next week. Enjoy the refreshing air while we have it as an upper ridge will expand east, providing a return of warm to hot and muggy weather by the 2nd half of the forecast period. This transition will also be met with the opportunity of “ridge riding” thunderstorm clusters into the Ohio Valley by mid to late week. These clusters will potentially deliver severe wind and heavy rain and the overall threat will certainly warrant our attention as we move through the next couple of days.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/weekly-agwx-and-severe-weather-outlook-8/

May 24

Weekly #AGwx And #Severe Outlook…

Weekly Highlights:

I. Summer-like pattern arrives for most just in time for the unofficial start to summer.

II. Cold front rumbles in late week with a better chance of organized storms and much cooler air for the weekend.

The upcoming 7-day period will feature above normal temperatures for a change overall. Keep in mind, the period will end cooler but warmth (and humidity) will be the headline for the majority of the week.
Overall, precipitation will run near normal levels for the period, primarily driven by “splash and dash” coverage of storms daily.
We are forecasting between 0.50” and 1” this week on a widespread basis. There will, however, be much higher amounts where slow moving storms track.

Forecast period: 05.24.20 through 05.31.20

The majority of this forecast period will feature a “rinse and repeat” forecast on a daily basis: warm to hot, humid, and daily chances of isolated to widely scattered thunder. The exception will be late week (centered on Friday) as a cold front drops in from the north. This will result in better coverage of thunderstorms along with much cooler air by next weekend (good bet lows fall into the upper 40s by next weekend). Looking ahead to early June looks to continue the “back and forth” theme as we welcome in meteorological summer.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/weekly-agwx-and-severe-outlook-8/

May 16

Weekly #AGwx And #Severe Outlook…

Weekly Highlights:

I. Cut off upper low will keep things cool and unsettled for much of the upcoming week across the East.

II. Summer-like heat is poised to expand across a good chunk of the area around and just after Memorial Day weekend.

Below normal temperatures are expected across not only our area over the upcoming 7-day period, but a good portion of the East, courtesy of a “cut off” upper low.
The upper level low will also be responsible for generating a wet pattern along the eastern seaboard.
1.5” to 2” of rain is expected during the period across central Indiana. Most of this will fall tonight into Sunday.
A couple gusty storms are possible across the area Sunday. Overall, widespread severe weather isn’t expected during the period.

Forecast Period: 05.16.20 through 05.23.20

Most of our Saturday will feature beautiful weather to spend time outdoors. In fact, we’re not expecting a drop of rain across central Indiana through the daytime. Add in highs around 80° and a gorgeous day is in the making! Get out and enjoy it!

Weather conditions will begin to go downhill tonight and Sunday as periods of showers and thunderstorms develop. Locally heavy rain is expected. This is all thanks to an area of low pressure and associated cold front that will help pull in a much cooler airmass as we progress through early week. After the heavy rain threat tonight into Sunday, the showers that fall early week (associated with the upper low) will be more of the nuisance variety.

That much cooler air mass will linger through a good portion of the week before an upper level ridge expands into the area around Memorial Day weekend. This will deliver a more summer-like airmass to the immediate area.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/weekly-agwx-and-severe-outlook-7/

May 11

From One Extreme To The Other…

The work week will get off to the same unusually chilly start we’ve begun to grow accustomed to. Additional frost and freeze threats are present Tuesday and Wednesday mornings if skies can clear (big if there). However, significant changes loom as we flip the page to the second half of the work week and longer term indications suggest we’re well on our way to a true summer-like feel by week 2.

Note how bullish the European ensemble is regarding the significant pattern flip over the next couple weeks.

A lot of this is driven by a change in the EPO. This is the kind of pattern that stands to at least threaten sending high temperatures soaring to between 85°-90° between Week 2 and month’s end. Talk about a contrast from the late winter and early spring-like chill to open the month!

The transition in the pattern is likely to be met with a much more active storm track through the area beginning midweek. There will be a threat of locally heavy rain and stronger storms that will continue at times into the weekend and beyond into next week, as well.

For a month that’s gotten off to a dry start, we’ll likely recover quickly with this wetter regime that accompanies the flip to warm.

We continue to believe most central Indiana neighborhoods will see between 1.75”-2.25” late week into the weekend, but there will be locally heavier amounts. The majority of data also suggests a corridor of wetter than normal conditions sets up from the Plains into the northern Ohio Valley/ Great Lakes into Week 2.

Stay tuned.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/from-one-extreme-to-the-other/

May 10

Weekly #AGwx And #Severe Outlook…

Weekly Highlights:

I. Additional threat of late season frost/ freeze early in the forecast period.

II. Transition in the pattern midweek signals a significant flip from the record chill across the East to one much more typical for mid-late May. Meanwhile, the West will turn much cooler.

A transition in our overall weather pattern will lead to a return of wet weather mid-late week, including multiple rounds of t-storms from the Plains into the Ohio Valley.
7-day rainfall should run between 1.75″ and 2.25″ with locally heavier amounts across central Indiana.
While the period will run cooler than normal, it’s because the first few days this week will run so far below normal. We’ll actually warm significantly mid-late week, however, the deviation from normal won’t be enough to tip the scale from the week being cooler overall across the Plains and East.
A couple gusty storms are possible across central and eastern IN this afternoon. We’ll also have to closely monitor late week for the threat of additional strong thunderstorms.

Forecast Period: 05.10.20 through 05.17.20

An area of low pressure and associated cold front will blast across the Ohio Valley during the next 24 hours. Ahead of the front, scattered showers are already entering the state from the west this morning. As we progress into the afternoon, we’ll watch for the potential of a couple skinny lines of thunderstorms try to develop across central and eastern parts of the state. A couple of these storms could quickly pulse to strong – severe levels and pose a threat of damaging straight line winds and hail. Once the front scoots to our east, we’ll notice a much colder (yet again) northwesterly breeze and drier conditions to open the work week. There will be a threat of another frost and freeze by Tuesday morning. Patchy frost is also possible Wednesday morning, especially across east-central parts of the state.

Thereafter, our region will undergo a rather significant flip in the overall pattern. As a result, an airmass much more typical of mid-May will engulf the eastern portion of the country. With the significantly warmer conditions will also come a few rounds of rain and thunder during the mid-late week stretch. Locally heavy rain is likely towards the end of the period including the threat of additional strong thunderstorms in the Thursday-Saturday time frame.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/weekly-agwx-and-severe-outlook-6/