I. Summer-like pattern arrives for most just in time for the unofficial start to summer.
II. Cold front rumbles in late week with a better chance of organized storms and much cooler air for the weekend.
The upcoming 7-day period will feature above normal temperatures for a change overall. Keep in mind, the period will end cooler but warmth (and humidity) will be the headline for the majority of the week.
Overall, precipitation will run near normal levels for the period, primarily driven by “splash and dash” coverage of storms daily.
We are forecasting between 0.50” and 1” this week on a widespread basis. There will, however, be much higher amounts where slow moving storms track.
Forecast period: 05.24.20 through 05.31.20
The majority of this forecast period will feature a “rinse and repeat” forecast on a daily basis: warm to hot, humid, and daily chances of isolated to widely scattered thunder. The exception will be late week (centered on Friday) as a cold front drops in from the north. This will result in better coverage of thunderstorms along with much cooler air by next weekend (good bet lows fall into the upper 40s by next weekend). Looking ahead to early June looks to continue the “back and forth” theme as we welcome in meteorological summer.
I. Cut off upper low will keep things cool and unsettled for much of the upcoming week across the East.
II. Summer-like heat is poised to expand across a good chunk of the area around and just after Memorial Day weekend.
Below normal temperatures are expected across not only our area over the upcoming 7-day period, but a good portion of the East, courtesy of a “cut off” upper low.
The upper level low will also be responsible for generating a wet pattern along the eastern seaboard.
1.5” to 2” of rain is expected during the period across central Indiana. Most of this will fall tonight into Sunday.
A couple gusty storms are possible across the area Sunday. Overall, widespread severe weather isn’t expected during the period.
Forecast Period: 05.16.20 through 05.23.20
Most of our Saturday will feature beautiful weather to spend time outdoors. In fact, we’re not expecting a drop of rain across central Indiana through the daytime. Add in highs around 80° and a gorgeous day is in the making! Get out and enjoy it!
Weather conditions will begin to go downhill tonight and Sunday as periods of showers and thunderstorms develop. Locally heavy rain is expected. This is all thanks to an area of low pressure and associated cold front that will help pull in a much cooler airmass as we progress through early week. After the heavy rain threat tonight into Sunday, the showers that fall early week (associated with the upper low) will be more of the nuisance variety.
That much cooler air mass will linger through a good portion of the week before an upper level ridge expands into the area around Memorial Day weekend. This will deliver a more summer-like airmass to the immediate area.
The work week will get off to the same unusually chilly start we’ve begun to grow accustomed to. Additional frost and freeze threats are present Tuesday and Wednesday mornings if skies can clear (big if there). However, significant changes loom as we flip the page to the second half of the work week and longer term indications suggest we’re well on our way to a true summer-like feel by week 2.
Note how bullish the European ensemble is regarding the significant pattern flip over the next couple weeks.
A lot of this is driven by a change in the EPO. This is the kind of pattern that stands to at least threaten sending high temperatures soaring to between 85°-90° between Week 2 and month’s end. Talk about a contrast from the late winter and early spring-like chill to open the month!
The transition in the pattern is likely to be met with a much more active storm track through the area beginning midweek. There will be a threat of locally heavy rain and stronger storms that will continue at times into the weekend and beyond into next week, as well.
For a month that’s gotten off to a dry start, we’ll likely recover quickly with this wetter regime that accompanies the flip to warm.
We continue to believe most central Indiana neighborhoods will see between 1.75”-2.25” late week into the weekend, but there will be locally heavier amounts. The majority of data also suggests a corridor of wetter than normal conditions sets up from the Plains into the northern Ohio Valley/ Great Lakes into Week 2.
I. Additional threat of late season frost/ freeze early in the forecast period.
II. Transition in the pattern midweek signals a significant flip from the record chill across the East to one much more typical for mid-late May. Meanwhile, the West will turn much cooler.
A transition in our overall weather pattern will lead to a return of wet weather mid-late week, including multiple rounds of t-storms from the Plains into the Ohio Valley.
7-day rainfall should run between 1.75″ and 2.25″ with locally heavier amounts across central Indiana.
While the period will run cooler than normal, it’s because the first few days this week will run so far below normal. We’ll actually warm significantly mid-late week, however, the deviation from normal won’t be enough to tip the scale from the week being cooler overall across the Plains and East.
A couple gusty storms are possible across central and eastern IN this afternoon. We’ll also have to closely monitor late week for the threat of additional strong thunderstorms.
Forecast Period: 05.10.20 through 05.17.20
An area of low pressure and associated cold front will blast across the Ohio Valley during the next 24 hours. Ahead of the front, scattered showers are already entering the state from the west this morning. As we progress into the afternoon, we’ll watch for the potential of a couple skinny lines of thunderstorms try to develop across central and eastern parts of the state. A couple of these storms could quickly pulse to strong – severe levels and pose a threat of damaging straight line winds and hail. Once the front scoots to our east, we’ll notice a much colder (yet again) northwesterly breeze and drier conditions to open the work week. There will be a threat of another frost and freeze by Tuesday morning. Patchy frost is also possible Wednesday morning, especially across east-central parts of the state.
Thereafter, our region will undergo a rather significant flip in the overall pattern. As a result, an airmass much more typical of mid-May will engulf the eastern portion of the country. With the significantly warmer conditions will also come a few rounds of rain and thunder during the mid-late week stretch. Locally heavy rain is likely towards the end of the period including the threat of additional strong thunderstorms in the Thursday-Saturday time frame.
We may only be a few weeks away from meteorological summer, but you wouldn’t know it. Instead, we’re talking about the potential of wet snow mixing in with a cold rain to close the work week and threat of lows falling into the 20s Saturday morning!
A strong cold front will settle south across the Ohio Valley Friday morning. In response to the front moving south, surface low pressure will organize along the boundary across the TN Valley Friday morning before roaring northeast and off the New England coast Saturday morning.
Widespread light rain will overspread the southern half of the state during the wee morning hours Friday, continuing into the mid to late morning before pushing off to the east. This will be a cold rain and may even mix with wet snowflakes at times before ending.
This won’t be a huge precipitation producer across central Indiana with most checking in between 0.10″ and 0.25″ (heavier amounts expected across southern Indiana).
Temperatures will slowly fall through the 40s during the daytime Friday. (Yes, we’re talking about May 8th)!
That then sets us up to at least be in position to break the all-time record low for the month of May (28° set in 1966). This will be an airmass with arctic origins and if high pressure can clear us out in time Friday night, overnight lows by Saturday morning are likely to fall into the upper 20s. High resolution guidance takes IND to between 26° and 27° while the European data remains consistent at 28°. Regardless, this will be “rare air” for so late in the season. Those with ag interests should use today to prepare for a hard freeze Friday night into Saturday morning.
Looking ahead, the bulk of the upcoming 7-day period will remain much cooler than average, but there are at least hints of a potential pattern change during the 8-10 day period. The European data is much warmer than the GEFS or new JMA Weeklies that are in-house. Additionally, the teleconnections don’t scream an all-out pattern change. Regardless, a period of moderation would certainly be welcome after this unusually chilly spell. We’ll have much more on this later today with our long range video update. Stay tuned.
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