Category: AG Report

Jun 18

Long Range Update: Changes Afoot…

Looking at a simple snapshot of the latest sea surface temperature anomaly map would suggest a La Nina is brewing (image 1), BUT the latest SOI (Southern Oscillation Index, also knows as the SOI) suggests otherwise (images 2-3):

In fact, the SOI values noted would suggest an El Nino is coming on. The daily hit of more than 30 suggests some wild swings in the weather over the upcoming couple of weeks across the Lower 48. Now, we still anticipate this to transition more towards a positive direction and a subsequent La Nina to, indeed, develop by fall and winter, but this is worth continuing to pay attention to and we’ll do just that.

As we look at June to-date across central Indiana, temperatures are running a little more than 2° above normal and precipitation is just over 1″ below normal. Given the pattern ahead, we continue to like where we stand with our June forecast overall: near-average precipitation and temperatures. This will, obviously take a wetter, cooler shift in the regime as we move through the next 10-12 days. Overall, that’s where we continue to believe we’re heading.

The latest JMA Weeklies hot off the press shows this big cool, wet change across our region. A series of troughs are shown to descend into the Ohio Valley during the next 10-16 days. As the individual cold fronts sweep through the region, better chances of rain will result and temperatures will run cooler than normal, overall.

Week 1

Week 2

The latest GEFS data is very similar in this wet, cool shift.

Days 4-10
Days 10-16
Days 6-10
Days 10-14

There’s support for this pattern in looking at the latest East Pacific Oscillation, as well. Negative values support central/ eastern cool and periods of transition from positive to negative (and vice-versa) also can help promote wet/ more active periods.

The MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) is a “sneaky” wild card in all of this. Note how the MJO is currently shown to slowly move through Phase 2 before going into the wheelhouse and emerging into Phase 8 by month’s end. While certainly not highly amplified, this is enough to have impacts. Note that Phases 2 and 8 this time of year maintain a cooler look, locally.

In summary, though it’s certainly been dry over the past couple of weeks, we think there’s more than enough reason not to fret. Not only are we looking at a pattern that should keep the heat (at least in a prolonged sense) west of our region, but the pattern drivers above should also result in a much more active regime with frontal passages and associated areas of low pressure moving through the region. This will begin in earnest early next week and continue through Week 2.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/long-range-update-changes-afoot/

Jun 13

Weekly #AGwx And #Severe Weather Outlook…

I. Unseasonably cool weather dominates the area to open the period with a late warming trend.

II. Widespread dry conditions persist through the upcoming week.

Between the cool pattern to open the period and warmth to end, temperatures will balance out very close to “average” for the period as a whole.
The forecast period will run much drier than normal from the Plains and points east. The one exception? Along the Carolina coast, thanks to a stalled cold front.
We’re only forecasting 0.10″ to 0.25″ over the upcoming 7-day period across central Indiana.

Forecast Period: 06.13.20 through 06.20.20

A very quiet weather pattern is ahead through the forecast period. A weak disturbance will move southeast this morning across the region. While northern parts of the state picked up measurable rainfall this morning, most of this will scoot east of immediate central Indiana. This system will also serve to reinforce the cool pattern in place into early parts of next week. In fact, overnight lows tonight will fall into the 40s as far south as central Indiana. Anyone else craving fall?! The pattern beyond will feature a warming trend along with continued dry weather. Heat and humidity will build in earnest late in the period along with an opportunity for scattered showers and thunderstorms next weekend ahead of an approaching cold front. Between now and then, enjoy the quiet conditions.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/weekly-agwx-and-severe-weather-outlook-10/

Jun 12

Long Range Update: Timing Out When The Dry Pattern Breaks Down; 2nd Half Of Summer Chatter…

The balance of the upcoming 7-10 days will feature bone dry conditions across central Indiana. A fast moving disturbance will drop southeast Saturday and could spawn a scattered shower across central Indiana, but we believe the more concentrated rain activity will remain to our east and southwest. If you do see a Saturday shower, count yourself lucky! This disturbance and associated cold front will serve to reinforce the dry airmass currently in place, along with bring temperatures down another couple of “notches” for the weekend (wouldn’t be surprised if some outlying areas get into the 40s Sunday or Monday mornings).

As we look ahead, a ridge of high pressure will dominate next week’s weather pattern. An extended stretch of dry (pleasant humidity levels), sunny days can be expected with a slow warming trend.

A ridge of high pressure will dominate our weather pattern next week as a “cut off” low tracks into the Southeast and Carolinas. The end result will be an extended period of dry weather for our region.

Things begin to get a little more “murky” late next week as forecast model solutions differ significantly. The new GFS forecast model drives a cold front into the Ohio Valley before stalling out as multiple disturbances ride along the boundary. This would lead to needed rain (and potentially heavy rain at that) late next week into next weekend. Meanwhile, the European model isn’t nearly as excited about this wet weather potential. The reality likely lies somewhere in between and we’ll trend our forecast wetter late week, but hold on the heavy rain threat for now. Stay tuned.

With that said, we do believe (given the pattern drivers discussed below) that the wetter trends shown on the GFS ensemble data in the Week 2 (and beyond) time frame has validity.

Precipitation anomalies Days 6-12
Precipitation anomalies Days 10-16

The latest JMA Weekly data also shows a similar wet idea during this time period.

As we look at the PNA and EPO, the transition in both teleconnections next week do give credence to the wetter them shown above during the said period.

Additionally, the positive PNA (image 1 above) and negative EPO (image 2 above) argue for the possibility of another period of cool weather to wrap up the month. This would come after transitional heat late next week.

The GEFS is cooler than the European during this time frame. Given the above, it wouldn’t surprise us if the Euro is forced to cool as we get closer to this period.

We’re undoubtedly entering into a critical time frame for the remainder of the summer. The upcoming couple of weeks will go a long way in determining the balance of the rest of this season. Despite the short-term dry pattern, we do believe (at least locally), rain will return before things get out of hand. The same may not be able to be said just to our west. It’s there (more from the Rockies into the Plains) where we think July heat will build in more significant fashion with the drier soils.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/long-range-update-timing-out-when-the-dry-pattern-breaks-down-2nd-half-of-summer-chatter/

Jun 06

Weekly #AGwx And #Severe Weather Outlook…

Weekly Highlights:

I. Cristobal’s remnant moisture

II. Strong cold front delivers unseasonably cool close to the week

A warm open to the forecast period will transition much cooler to close the week. All-in-all, things will “balance out” close to average, locally.
Overall, it’s a dry pattern from the Plains into the East. The one exception? Where Cristobal’s remnants track and Northwest.
The heavy, tropical moisture associated with Cristobal is still expected to remain to our west. Wednesday will likely be our wettest day of the period which should feature 0.25″ to 0.75″ amounts over the upcoming 7-days.

Forecast Period: 06.06.20 through 06.13.20

Though it’ll still be a warm weekend, less humid air will be welcomed with open arms. Dry conditions will prevail through the weekend and as we open up the new work week, including plentiful sunshine. All eyes through the weekend will be on the Gulf of Mexico and Tropical Storm Cristobal. Cristobal will slowly strengthen over the next 24-36 hours before making landfall as a strong tropical storm along the southeast LA coastline. While we still don’t think we’ll be directly impacted by Cristobal’s remnants (those will track through the MS Valley and into the Upper Midwest), the fetch off the Gulf Coast directly ahead of a midweek cold front will lead to better chances of rain late Tuesday into Wednesday. That aforementioned cold front will be the first of two fronts to sweep the region before week’s end. The second front that blows through Friday will usher in a fall-like airmass next weekend.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/weekly-agwx-and-severe-weather-outlook-9/

May 30

Weekly #AGwx And #Severe Weather Outlook…

Weekly Highlights:

I. May ends and June opens with well below normal temperatures and humidity levels.

II. Summer pattern emerges during the 2nd half of next week, along with a return of hefty storms.

The upcoming 7-day period will be dominated by 2 distinct patterns: cool & refreshing (now through Tue.) and hot/ sticky (Wed. on). Overall, this will lead to a week that “averages out” close to normal.
While the pattern looks dry overall (and certainly will be up until the middle of next week), there’s the potential of storm clusters diving in from the northwest and providing heavy rain late in the period.
We’re actually more bullish on the precipitation front than what models currently portray. We’re going with a 7-day total between 1”-2” across central Indiana- most of which falls in the Wednesday-Friday time frame.
The Storm Prediction Center doesn’t currently outline a threat of severe weather in the upcoming period. However, that may change as we get closer to the back half of the week.

Forecast Period: 05.30.20 through 06.06.20

Cool, Canadian high pressure will dominate our weekend weather, continuing into early parts of next week. Enjoy the refreshing air while we have it as an upper ridge will expand east, providing a return of warm to hot and muggy weather by the 2nd half of the forecast period. This transition will also be met with the opportunity of “ridge riding” thunderstorm clusters into the Ohio Valley by mid to late week. These clusters will potentially deliver severe wind and heavy rain and the overall threat will certainly warrant our attention as we move through the next couple of days.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/weekly-agwx-and-severe-weather-outlook-8/