Category: 7-Day Outlook
Updated: 02.19.21 @ 7:55a
Cold Times Persist Into The Weekend…It’s been 13 full days since we last saw anything close to the freezing mark and we’ll tack on a couple more days before we inch back up above freezing Sunday. This has been an impressive cold stretch (likely longest since back in 2007).
While we’ll see some early sunshine today, clouds will begin to increase through the afternoon and will eventually yield some light snow showers as we move into later tonight and Saturday. The positive in these clouds? It’ll keep us in the “balmy” single digits (as opposed to the once thought 0° to 5° below zero range) to open up our Saturday.
A slightly stronger system will arrive on the scene Sunday afternoon and evening and you know the fear here: that we will be looking at icing issues Sunday PM. Even with temperatures expected to be a couple degrees above freezing, given the strength and magnitude of the cold as of late, the concern is that any sort of liquid precipitation will freeze on the surface. I’d plan on potentially slick travel across the region Sunday evening as this system blows through. Precipitation should arrive mostly after 4p and while we’re not talking about plentiful amounts (0.2″ to 0.4″ for most), it doesn’t take much to create problems.
A gusty westerly breeze will then greet us to open the new work week and this will blow relatively milder air into the region into midweek before a cold front settles south and returns the chill for late next week. As this takes place, we’ll have to keep our eyes to the southwest for the possibility of another more significant winter feature impacting the general area just beyond the current 7-day period.
Averages: H: 41°/ L: 25° on the 19th –> H: 44°/ L: 27° on the 25th
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/02/19/02-19-21-weather-bulletin-13-days-and-counting/
Updated 02.14.21 @ 8a
Back-to-Back Heavy Snow Storms…Use today to complete preparations for what will be a memorable week of winter weather. While bitter out this morning, we’ll at least enjoy a dry day. Wind chills that are at dangerous levels right now (-10° to -20°) will “warm” to between 0° and 5° above this afternoon.
Snow will overspread the state from southwest to northeast as we move through the night. Initially, we’re talking about mostly light snow, but roadways will be a mess for the morning commute Monday (given how cold it’s been as of late). If you can avoid travel altogether, we’d recommend doing so. Snow will really begin to pick up in intensity after lunchtime Monday, and especially towards evening, continuing into the overnight hours. Periods of heavy snow can be expected during this time frame. The snow will be mostly out of here by Tuesday morning, but not before depositing a widespread 5″ to 8″, including localized amounts up to 10″. You’ll want to get on the clean up from the first storm as another “big one” awaits.
After a mostly dry Tuesday and daytime Wednesday, light snow will develop towards sunset and become heavy at times Thursday. This second storm has the potential to be equally, if not more, significant than its predecessor and we’ll have early snowfall numbers issued this afternoon. By Friday morning, widespread snowfall totals of 10″ to 15″ (if not more in spots) can be expected with drifts in the open country that even a yardstick won’t be able to handle.
We’ll have our updated snowfall maps included with our Client video update that will be published this afternoon. A Client Brief will be posted later today, as well, focusing on the specific details of Storm #1.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/02/14/02-14-21-weather-bulletin-memorable-week-of-winter-weather/
Updated: 02.12.21 @ 7:34a
Use This Weekend To Prep…The short-term portion of this forecast is relatively quiet. Take advantage and prepare for significant winter weather next week. We may even see a few breaks in the cloud cover today. All in all, look for mostly cloudy and continued cold conditions. Keep in mind, average highs this time of year should be close to 40°. We’ll be nowhere near that anytime soon. In fact, most days will feature high temperatures even colder than average lows for this time of year!
Reinforcing arctic air will penetrate the area Saturday and will likely kick up some light snow showers- especially during the afternoon. Light snow will remain a possibility Valentine’s Day, but “light” is the key word.
The more exciting part of this forecast comes at us as we open the work week. Surface low pressure will develop in the northwest Gulf of Mexico Sunday night and track northeast up along the Appalachians. This will spread a swath of snow into the Ohio Valley through the day Monday. It appears as if snow will become heavy at times Monday evening into the predawn hours Tuesday before tapering to light snow/ snow showers late Tuesday morning. This will be a much more powdery snow than we typically see with these Gulf storms, due to having truly arctic air involved with the storm. Gusty winds will create significant blowing and drifting issues throughout the early and middle portion of the work week.
That then leads us to the threat of another significant winter storm as we push into Wednesday night into Friday morning. We don’t want to get ahead of ourselves, but the threat is very real that this storm also deals out heavy impacts across the region with additional heavy snow possible during the aforementioned time frame.
We’d suggest using the weekend to prepare for the potential of two back-to-back “big deal” winter storms. We’ll be here through the weekend with additional updates.
Averages: H: 39/ L: 23° on the 12th –> H: 41°/ L: 25° on the 18th
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/02/12/02-12-21-weather-bulletin-continuing-to-keep-close-eyes-on-next-week/
Updated 02.09.21 @ 8a
Keep That Head On A Swivel…Before we talk about what’s ahead, it was a snowy night across south-central Indiana. Many of the reports coming in from down that way indicate our 3″ to 5″ forecast played out quite nicely, including most common snowfall totals between 4″ and 5″ (with a few isolated heavier amounts). Thank you for those ground truth reports, friends! I know we’ve said it before, but they are more valuable than you know!
Now to look ahead. Storm systems will come flying through fast and furious over the upcoming 7-days. Scattered lingering snow showers and flurries today will give way to a steadier snow as we move into Wednesday. Meanwhile, an icy mixture of sleet and freezing rain is expected across far southern Indiana. After the 12z model suite is complete this afternoon, we’ll be back with a fresh look on expected snowfall amounts later this evening.
Friday appears to offer up a much needed one day breather from wintry systems with cold, dry conditions expected. Then our attention will shift to the weekend and threat of potentially a more significant winter storm. Guidance is trying to sort out which feature has the best chance of phasing into a more potent storm system. The GFS likes the lead wave this weekend while the European holds things off until early next week. Please stay tuned.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/02/09/02-09-21-weather-bulletin-active-would-be-an-understatement/
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Filed under 7-Day Outlook, Arctic Cold, Blowing/ Drifting, Client, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Rain, snow, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Windy
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February 3, 2021
Updated 02.03.21 @ 8:19a
Best Day Of The Week…We can’t get too picky this time of year in the weather department. Long time fellow Hoosiers know to never take a day featuring sunshine for granted in early February. Though still chilly, given the pattern ahead, I’d recommend getting outside and enjoying some of those rays today.
A cold front blows into town Thursday and will deliver a chilly rain by the afternoon. As colder air rushes in on the backside of the system, rain will likely mix with and end as a period of snow across the northern half of the state Thursday evening. Though the moisture will be leaving as the cold air is arriving, we may still be able to squeeze out a dusting to 1″ of wet snow for northern areas.
Attention will then shift to an arctic wave that will move into the Ohio Valley this weekend. Snow will become widespread across the central Plains Friday evening into Saturday morning before expanding east into our neck of the woods Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. With cold air in place, this will be a higher ratio snow event than we’ve seen so far this winter (“fluff factor” will be in full effect). Additionally, strong and gusty winds are expected during this time frame leading to blowing and drifting concerns. Stay tuned. We’ll take a stab at early accumulation numbers with this evening’s Client Video update.
Additional upper level energy will scoot through the region into early next week, keeping a supply of snow showers ongoing. While still cold, models have pushed back the truly dangerous cold until late week. Case of delayed, but not denied? Unfortunately think so…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/02/03/02-03-21-weather-bulletin-keeping-a-watchful-eye-on-the-weekend/
Updated 02.01.21 @ 6:34p
Bottom Drops Out Early Next Week…Brief high pressure will build overhead through the next 24 to 48 hours and supply a return of sunshine. We may still have a few light flurries around through the early afternoon Tuesday, but the story over the next couple of days will be improving weather, albeit still chilly.
Our next storm system will approach Wednesday night and Thursday in the form of a cold front. Precipitation should arrive Thursday morning as a cold rain (might start as a brief wintry mix, but this shouldn’t be a big deal). The cold front will then sweep through the state Friday morning. Highs will likely take place during the predawn hours with falling temperatures through the day. Any lingering morning precipitation should exit stage right relatively quickly.
Things become much more interesting over the weekend as a couple of arctic fronts sweep across the region. The first front will feature vigorous upper level energy and will likely result in a period of snow. The second front will really drop the “arctic hammer” and not only lead to the coldest air we’ve seen in quite some time, but a continuation of snow chances into early next week.
We’ll keep a close eye on the development of things for the weekend. With arctic air getting involved, it’ll likely maximize any available moisture and a couple of seemingly rather “harmless” snow events could turn into over-achievers as we grow closer. I’d keep close tabs on the weekend forecast.
Bitter air will pour into the region early next week, including dangerously cold wind chill values. Those with ag/ livestock interests should be prepared to make adjustments for the severe cold.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/02/01/02-01-21-weather-bulletin-the-arctic-hounds-come-calling/
Updated 01.31.21 @ 11:00a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/01/31/video-rain-mix-changes-back-to-snow-looking-at-a-busy-couple-weeks-ahead/
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Filed under 7-Day Outlook, Client, Ensemble Discussion, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Heavy Snow, Rain, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Weather Videos, Winter Storm
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January 29, 2021
Updated 01.29.21 @ 5:05p
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/01/29/video-heavy-wet-snow-arrives-saturday-afternoon-looking-into-early-february/
Updated 01.27.21 @ 7:51a
No Rest For The Weary…A fast moving area of low pressure will scoot east this afternoon and evening. This will spread a swath of light to moderate snow across the southern half of the state in the 1p (west) to midnight (exiting southeastern portions of the state) window. While still primarily a light event, models have “beefed up” snow amounts ever so slightly with this system over the past 24 hours. Our snowfall forecast for system #1 can be found below.
Colder air will pour in for all during the overnight and should be just enough to kick up some lake-generated scattered snow shower activity into Thursday morning.
Weak high pressure will then build in and supply a sunny close to the work week. You enjoy the sun and briefly quieter weather and let us worry about the weekend!
Speaking of the weekend, this is the period that continues to look increasingly likely to produce the most impactful winter storm of the season for our immediate area. We forecast early sun to quickly give way to a lowering and thickening cloud canopy Saturday (the sky will have the looks of a snow storm brewing by lunch for most). Precipitation will then overspread the region from southwest to northeast as we progress through the afternoon. The potential is there for a heavy wet snow thump Saturday PM before precipitation transitions to a wintry mix as low pressure scoot by just to our south. Before that transition, “several” inches of wet snow is looking increasingly likely. As colder air wraps back around into the region, wrap-around moisture will fall as light snow and snow showers into early next week.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/01/27/01-27-21-weather-bulletin-snow-builds-in-this-afternoon-for-the-southern-half-of-the-state-keeping-close-eyes-on-the-weekend/
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Filed under 7-Day Outlook, Client, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Freezing Rain, Rain, Sleet, snow, Winter Storm, Wintry Mix
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January 22, 2021
Updated 01.22.21 @ 9:20a
Focus Is On Next Week…The 1st half of the weekend is easy as high pressure builds into the area, supplying a fresh batch of cold, dry air. Enjoy the sun while you’ve got it. (Don’t anticipate much in the vitamin D department next week). Saturday morning will be very cold (middle 10s for most with single digit ‘chills).
Clouds will thicken up Saturday PM and an initial wave of moisture will arrive into central Indiana Sunday morning. This lead wave of precipitation should be on the light side but with cold air in place, it’ll likely fall as a wintry mix of sleet and potentially freezing rain across the southern half of the state. Where the cold air is a little deeper further north, the predominant precipitation type should take on the form of light snow Sunday morning.
After a potential “lull” Sunday evening, another slug of moisture is inbound Sunday night and Monday. As surface low pressure tracks along the Ohio River during this time frame, this round of precipitation will be heavier and more organized. While this will still require fine tuning, our initial thinking is the form of precipitation will likely fall as the frozen variety across the northern 1/3 of the state with more mixing across immediate central Indiana, and predominantly liquid downstate. We’ll keep a very close eye on the data throughout the weekend, but our initial idea can be found below. Where the precipitation type is predominantly snow, this should be a “plowable” event. Stay tuned.
We’ll have to track another feature by the middle of next week. This could, too, deposit additional wintry conditions across the region, but we need to get through the lead system before trying to get too cute with the mid week feature.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/01/22/01-22-21-weather-bulletin-cold-weekend-messy-open-to-the-new-week-ahead/
