A cooler trend will develop this week from the Plains into the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, unseasonable warmth will hang on a couple more days across New England.Below normal precipitation is expected this week across a widespread chunk of the Lower 48. One major exception to that will be found along the Gulf Coast.
Rainfall totals should fall within 0.25” and 0.50” for immediate central Indiana this week and most of that will come today.
Another round of severe weather is expected across Florida today, unfortunately impacting spring breakers. All in all this will be a quieter week on the severe front as the cooler pattern settles in.
Forecast Period: 04.11.21 through 04.18.21
Central Indiana will continue to feel the affects of the low pressure system that resulted in periods of storms yesterday through the remainder of the weekend. A rather persistent light to moderate rain is expected today along with gusty winds and cooler air. This system will pull east of the region Monday and allow for drier air to return. The bulk of the remainder of the forecast period looks dry and seasonably cool. We’ll continue to keep an eye on upper level energy scooting to our east midweek. This is expected to result in a few instability-driven showers for our friends across northeastern IN into OH, but continues to look like it’ll just miss central IN.
Frosty conditions are still possible Thursday morning, especially if we can clear out any lingering clouds from the aforementioned upper energy. The next opportunity for better coverage of light showers won’t come until next weekend. Overall we only expect 0.25” and 0.50” of rain in the week ahead- most if not all of which falls today.
First and foremost, we want to wish you and your family a blessed Easter Sunday. Weather will be absolutely gorgeous, including sunny skies and highs that will top out in the lower 70s this afternoon! Enjoy!
Widespread well above normal temperatures can be expected this week. Greatest deviation from normal will be found across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.
Large scale drier than normal conditions are on tap. Exception to this will be across the upper Midwest and central Gulf Coast region.
We forecast between 0.50″ and 1″ of rain to fall on most central Indiana lawns over the upcoming 7-day period.
An outbreak of severe weather is expected across the central Plains (starting Monday night and Tue) and into the lower MS Valley by midweek.
Forecast period: 04.04.21 through 04.11.21
High pressure will dominate our weather to open the forecast period. This will result in a gorgeous Easter Sunday and extend into the early portion of the work week. We’ll notice humidity levels slowly climbing and a few more clouds will be around, but otherwise very nice conditions will prevail through most of the daytime Tuesday. Unseasonably warm conditions can be expected throughout the week ahead. Shower and thunderstorm chances will begin to increase Tuesday night and coverage will really ramp up through midweek. While the bulk of the severe weather is expected south of here, we’ll want to keep an eye on the potential of a couple stronger storms here Wednesday PM. The slow moving system should push east of here Friday evening, allowing high pressure to build back in as we open up next weekend.
Temperatures will run below normal through the upcoming period from the Ohio Valley into the Southeast. Meanwhile, resurgent warmth will build across the northern Plains.
After an active stretch of weather, an overall drier pattern will build in through the upcoming period across the Plains and into the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, the eastern seaboard will remain wetter than normal.
We forecast central Indiana to receive a half inch or less of rain over the upcoming 7-day period (most of that comes this morning and again with a frontal passage Tuesday night).
The most active severe weather day of the 7 upcoming will be today- primarily east of the mountains and into the Mid Atlantic region into the Southeast.
Forecast period: 03.28.21 through 04.04.21
You don’t need us to remind y’all just how active and busy things have been over the past couple of weeks. For those weather weary, an extended period of overall quieter weather will build in for the upcoming week. The only exception to that will be some early showers today and again with a frontal passage Tuesday night-predawn Wednesday. The bigger story will be the pop of unseasonably cold air that will arrive on the heels of the passage of the midweek cold front. We’re talking about some neighborhoods falling into the 10s by late week for morning lows. Brrrrr. Thankfully, the cold won’t last more than a couple of days and we’ll be back to moderating conditions as Easter Sunday arrives.
I. Tracking 2 coast-to-coast storms in the week ahead
II. Severe episodes begin to increase
Coldest anomalies will be centered over the deep snowpack across the Front Range. The Midwest and OHV region will run above to well above normal in the temperature department.
Well above normal precipitation will target the middle of the country, including into the Southeast.
We forecast between 1.25″ and 1.75″ for *most central IN rain gauges over the upcoming 7 days.
Each day this upcoming week will feature a threat of severe weather (including tornadoes), focused on the Plains and into the Southeast. That said, even into the OHV, a threat of stronger storms is present by midweek.
Widespread severe drought conditions persist across the 4-Corner region.
Forecast period: 03.14.21 through 03.21.21
An active week is in store for the region as a series of storm systems impacts the area. The first system will deliver widespread heavier precipitation (after today’s light, nuisance variety rain/ drizzle) late morning Monday into the afternoon hours. With just enough cold air in place, there’s the possibility this precipitation will mix with sleet and freezing rain from Indianapolis and points north briefly at the onset. That said, the wintry precipitation types won’t last long and things will quickly changeover to a plain ole rain by early to mid afternoon. Scattered showers and a possible embedded storm will continue Tuesday as the surface low moves through the Ohio Valley.
Storm #2 quickly follows for St. Patrick’s Day. While we still have some time to fine tune things, I’d suggest keeping an eye on Wednesday afternoon for the possibility of stronger storm potential as far north as central IN and more of the Ohio Valley as a whole. The ingredients aren’t the best, but there seems to be just enough warmth and instability to at least warrant a close eye for this time period. We’ll do just that and update our products accordingly.
Quieter weather will build into the area by the weekend.
II. Heavy rain/ potential flooding threat looms late week across OHV
Widespread above normal temperatures can be expected this week. Only exception to this will be across the West and far Southeast.
Above normal precipitation will target the MO Valley and into the western OHV.
We expect between 1″ and 2″ for most of IN in the week ahead.
Widespread significant drought continues across the West, especially Southwest/ Four-Corners region.
Forecast period: 03.07.21 through 03.14.21
While our weather will remain “eerily quiet” to open this forecast period, significant changes await on deck by the 2nd half of the week. These changes will be ushered in from a cold front that will lead to increasing shower (maybe even embedded t-storm) chances Thursday before rain becomes widespread Thursday night into Friday. The GFS and European computer models begin to disagree on the evolution of things next weekend. The GFS stalls the front just to our south before a surface wave of low pressure rides along the boundary over the Saturday-Sunday period. Meanwhile, the European shoves the front off to the south in a quicker fashion, allowing for a drier weekend. We’ll need to keep a close eye on things and update in the days ahead. Should the GFS idea be correct, a flood threat would ensue, including weekend rainfall totals of several inches. We’re not ready to jump on the excessive rainfall idea yet, due to the differences in the handling of the frontal boundary/ associated surface wave, but will keep a very close eye on things. Stay tuned.
About As Quiet As It Can Get…March couldn’t feature any quieter conditions to open up the month. It’s almost eerily quiet… High pressure will dominate our weather and supply an extended stretch of dry conditions. We’ll “flirt” with milder air Wednesday before a brief setback to close the week. Then, it’s off to the races next week, including several days that should go well into the 60s!
The next chance of meaningful precipitation doesn’t appear to be on the horizon until early to middle parts of next week.
Averages: H: 45°/ L: 28° on the 1st –> H: 48°/ L: 30° on the 8th
II. Eastern, Southeastern regions cool late in the period
Overall, over the upcoming 7-day period, above normal temperatures are expected from the northern Plains into the Southeast, including OHV.
Precipitation is expected to run above normal across the Southeast, TN Valley, and lower OHV.
Rainfall should run between 0.75″ and 1.25″ for central IN over the upcoming 7-days.
There is a threat of severe weather today from the Ark-la-tex region into the western TN Valley.
Widespread significant drought continues across the West, especially Southwest/ Four-Corners region.
Forecast period: 02.28.21 through 03.07.21
The short-term will be dominated by a the wet (and stormy for some) time of things from the OH Valley, but more so centered in the TN River Valley. Eventually the associated frontal boundary will sweep into the Southeast region early in the work week before stalling out and serving as the focal point for additional storm systems mid and late week. The first of these systems will scoot from the southern Plains east into the Southeast in the Monday through Wednesday time period with additional opportunities for heavy rain and local severe weather. We’ll watch for another suppressed system late in the week that will likely take a similar route in the Thursday-Saturday timeframe.
From a central Indiana standpoint, best rain chances out of the entire period are in front of us now. Things should dry out considerably through the balance of the upcoming work week given the overall pattern.
Gusty Out This Morning…Westerly winds are blowing at a good clip this morning, including gusts of 30-40 MPH. These will continue into the afternoon before diminishing. All in all, we’re looking at a much milder stretch of weather in the week ahead. Compared to the past couple of weeks, most days will be downright balmy. Sunshine will return tomorrow and remain with us through the day Friday. It continues to look like Wednesday night’s frontal passage will be an uneventful one.
As we look ahead to the weekend, shower chances return Saturday as a couple of systems team together. As of now, the northern and southern stream energy doesn’t look like it’ll phase until over the Northeast/ New England region. As such, this doesn’t look like a big deal here, but we’ll continue to keep an eye on things.
Averages: H: 43°/ L: 26° on the 22nd –> H: 45°/ L: 28° on the 28th
Cold Times Persist Into The Weekend…It’s been 13 full days since we last saw anything close to the freezing mark and we’ll tack on a couple more days before we inch back up above freezing Sunday. This has been an impressive cold stretch (likely longest since back in 2007).
While we’ll see some early sunshine today, clouds will begin to increase through the afternoon and will eventually yield some light snow showers as we move into later tonight and Saturday. The positive in these clouds? It’ll keep us in the “balmy” single digits (as opposed to the once thought 0° to 5° below zero range) to open up our Saturday.
A slightly stronger system will arrive on the scene Sunday afternoon and evening and you know the fear here: that we will be looking at icing issues Sunday PM. Even with temperatures expected to be a couple degrees above freezing, given the strength and magnitude of the cold as of late, the concern is that any sort of liquid precipitation will freeze on the surface. I’d plan on potentially slick travel across the region Sunday evening as this system blows through. Precipitation should arrive mostly after 4p and while we’re not talking about plentiful amounts (0.2″ to 0.4″ for most), it doesn’t take much to create problems.
A gusty westerly breeze will then greet us to open the new work week and this will blow relatively milder air into the region into midweek before a cold front settles south and returns the chill for late next week. As this takes place, we’ll have to keep our eyes to the southwest for the possibility of another more significant winter feature impacting the general area just beyond the current 7-day period.
Averages: H: 41°/ L: 25° on the 19th –> H: 44°/ L: 27° on the 25th
Back-to-Back Heavy Snow Storms…Use today to complete preparations for what will be a memorable week of winter weather. While bitter out this morning, we’ll at least enjoy a dry day. Wind chills that are at dangerous levels right now (-10° to -20°) will “warm” to between 0° and 5° above this afternoon.
Snow will overspread the state from southwest to northeast as we move through the night. Initially, we’re talking about mostly light snow, but roadways will be a mess for the morning commute Monday (given how cold it’s been as of late). If you can avoid travel altogether, we’d recommend doing so. Snow will really begin to pick up in intensity after lunchtime Monday, and especially towards evening, continuing into the overnight hours. Periods of heavy snow can be expected during this time frame. The snow will be mostly out of here by Tuesday morning, but not before depositing a widespread 5″ to 8″, including localized amounts up to 10″. You’ll want to get on the clean up from the first storm as another “big one” awaits.
After a mostly dry Tuesday and daytime Wednesday, light snow will develop towards sunset and become heavy at times Thursday. This second storm has the potential to be equally, if not more, significant than its predecessor and we’ll have early snowfall numbers issued this afternoon. By Friday morning, widespread snowfall totals of 10″ to 15″ (if not more in spots) can be expected with drifts in the open country that even a yardstick won’t be able to handle.
We’ll have our updated snowfall maps included with our Client video update that will be published this afternoon. A Client Brief will be posted later today, as well, focusing on the specific details of Storm #1.
