Category: 7-Day Outlook

Feb 12

02.12.21 Weather Bulletin: Continuing To Keep Close Eyes On Next Week…

Updated: 02.12.21 @ 7:34a

Use This Weekend To Prep…The short-term portion of this forecast is relatively quiet. Take advantage and prepare for significant winter weather next week. We may even see a few breaks in the cloud cover today. All in all, look for mostly cloudy and continued cold conditions. Keep in mind, average highs this time of year should be close to 40°. We’ll be nowhere near that anytime soon. In fact, most days will feature high temperatures even colder than average lows for this time of year!

Reinforcing arctic air will penetrate the area Saturday and will likely kick up some light snow showers- especially during the afternoon. Light snow will remain a possibility Valentine’s Day, but “light” is the key word.

The more exciting part of this forecast comes at us as we open the work week. Surface low pressure will develop in the northwest Gulf of Mexico Sunday night and track northeast up along the Appalachians. This will spread a swath of snow into the Ohio Valley through the day Monday. It appears as if snow will become heavy at times Monday evening into the predawn hours Tuesday before tapering to light snow/ snow showers late Tuesday morning. This will be a much more powdery snow than we typically see with these Gulf storms, due to having truly arctic air involved with the storm. Gusty winds will create significant blowing and drifting issues throughout the early and middle portion of the work week.

That then leads us to the threat of another significant winter storm as we push into Wednesday night into Friday morning. We don’t want to get ahead of ourselves, but the threat is very real that this storm also deals out heavy impacts across the region with additional heavy snow possible during the aforementioned time frame.

We’d suggest using the weekend to prepare for the potential of two back-to-back “big deal” winter storms. We’ll be here through the weekend with additional updates.

Averages: H: 39/ L: 23° on the 12th –> H: 41°/ L: 25° on the 18th

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/02/12/02-12-21-weather-bulletin-continuing-to-keep-close-eyes-on-next-week/

Feb 09

02.09.21 Weather Bulletin: “Active” Would Be An Understatement…

Updated 02.09.21 @ 8a

Keep That Head On A Swivel…Before we talk about what’s ahead, it was a snowy night across south-central Indiana. Many of the reports coming in from down that way indicate our 3″ to 5″ forecast played out quite nicely, including most common snowfall totals between 4″ and 5″ (with a few isolated heavier amounts). Thank you for those ground truth reports, friends! I know we’ve said it before, but they are more valuable than you know!

Now to look ahead. Storm systems will come flying through fast and furious over the upcoming 7-days. Scattered lingering snow showers and flurries today will give way to a steadier snow as we move into Wednesday. Meanwhile, an icy mixture of sleet and freezing rain is expected across far southern Indiana. After the 12z model suite is complete this afternoon, we’ll be back with a fresh look on expected snowfall amounts later this evening.

Friday appears to offer up a much needed one day breather from wintry systems with cold, dry conditions expected. Then our attention will shift to the weekend and threat of potentially a more significant winter storm. Guidance is trying to sort out which feature has the best chance of phasing into a more potent storm system. The GFS likes the lead wave this weekend while the European holds things off until early next week. Please stay tuned.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/02/09/02-09-21-weather-bulletin-active-would-be-an-understatement/

Feb 03

02.03.21 Weather Bulletin: Keeping A Watchful Eye On The Weekend…

Updated 02.03.21 @ 8:19a

Best Day Of The Week…We can’t get too picky this time of year in the weather department. Long time fellow Hoosiers know to never take a day featuring sunshine for granted in early February. Though still chilly, given the pattern ahead, I’d recommend getting outside and enjoying some of those rays today.

A cold front blows into town Thursday and will deliver a chilly rain by the afternoon. As colder air rushes in on the backside of the system, rain will likely mix with and end as a period of snow across the northern half of the state Thursday evening. Though the moisture will be leaving as the cold air is arriving, we may still be able to squeeze out a dusting to 1″ of wet snow for northern areas.

Attention will then shift to an arctic wave that will move into the Ohio Valley this weekend. Snow will become widespread across the central Plains Friday evening into Saturday morning before expanding east into our neck of the woods Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. With cold air in place, this will be a higher ratio snow event than we’ve seen so far this winter (“fluff factor” will be in full effect). Additionally, strong and gusty winds are expected during this time frame leading to blowing and drifting concerns. Stay tuned. We’ll take a stab at early accumulation numbers with this evening’s Client Video update.

Additional upper level energy will scoot through the region into early next week, keeping a supply of snow showers ongoing. While still cold, models have pushed back the truly dangerous cold until late week. Case of delayed, but not denied? Unfortunately think so…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/02/03/02-03-21-weather-bulletin-keeping-a-watchful-eye-on-the-weekend/

Feb 01

02.01.21 Weather Bulletin: The Arctic Hounds Come Calling…

Updated 02.01.21 @ 6:34p

Bottom Drops Out Early Next Week…Brief high pressure will build overhead through the next 24 to 48 hours and supply a return of sunshine. We may still have a few light flurries around through the early afternoon Tuesday, but the story over the next couple of days will be improving weather, albeit still chilly.

Our next storm system will approach Wednesday night and Thursday in the form of a cold front. Precipitation should arrive Thursday morning as a cold rain (might start as a brief wintry mix, but this shouldn’t be a big deal). The cold front will then sweep through the state Friday morning. Highs will likely take place during the predawn hours with falling temperatures through the day. Any lingering morning precipitation should exit stage right relatively quickly.

Things become much more interesting over the weekend as a couple of arctic fronts sweep across the region. The first front will feature vigorous upper level energy and will likely result in a period of snow. The second front will really drop the “arctic hammer” and not only lead to the coldest air we’ve seen in quite some time, but a continuation of snow chances into early next week.

We’ll keep a close eye on the development of things for the weekend. With arctic air getting involved, it’ll likely maximize any available moisture and a couple of seemingly rather “harmless” snow events could turn into over-achievers as we grow closer. I’d keep close tabs on the weekend forecast.

Bitter air will pour into the region early next week, including dangerously cold wind chill values. Those with ag/ livestock interests should be prepared to make adjustments for the severe cold.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/02/01/02-01-21-weather-bulletin-the-arctic-hounds-come-calling/

Jan 31

VIDEO: Rain/ Mix Changes Back To Snow; Looking At A Busy Couple Weeks Ahead…

Updated 01.31.21 @ 11:00a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/01/31/video-rain-mix-changes-back-to-snow-looking-at-a-busy-couple-weeks-ahead/

Jan 29

VIDEO: Heavy, Wet Snow Arrives Saturday Afternoon; Looking Into Early February…

Updated 01.29.21 @ 5:05p

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/01/29/video-heavy-wet-snow-arrives-saturday-afternoon-looking-into-early-february/

Jan 27

01.27.21 Weather Bulletin: Snow Builds In This Afternoon For The Southern Half Of The State; Keeping Close Eyes On The Weekend…

Updated 01.27.21 @ 7:51a

No Rest For The Weary…A fast moving area of low pressure will scoot east this afternoon and evening. This will spread a swath of light to moderate snow across the southern half of the state in the 1p (west) to midnight (exiting southeastern portions of the state) window. While still primarily a light event, models have “beefed up” snow amounts ever so slightly with this system over the past 24 hours. Our snowfall forecast for system #1 can be found below.

Colder air will pour in for all during the overnight and should be just enough to kick up some lake-generated scattered snow shower activity into Thursday morning.

Weak high pressure will then build in and supply a sunny close to the work week. You enjoy the sun and briefly quieter weather and let us worry about the weekend!

Speaking of the weekend, this is the period that continues to look increasingly likely to produce the most impactful winter storm of the season for our immediate area. We forecast early sun to quickly give way to a lowering and thickening cloud canopy Saturday (the sky will have the looks of a snow storm brewing by lunch for most). Precipitation will then overspread the region from southwest to northeast as we progress through the afternoon. The potential is there for a heavy wet snow thump Saturday PM before precipitation transitions to a wintry mix as low pressure scoot by just to our south. Before that transition, “several” inches of wet snow is looking increasingly likely. As colder air wraps back around into the region, wrap-around moisture will fall as light snow and snow showers into early next week.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/01/27/01-27-21-weather-bulletin-snow-builds-in-this-afternoon-for-the-southern-half-of-the-state-keeping-close-eyes-on-the-weekend/

Jan 22

01.22.21 Weather Bulletin: Cold Weekend; Messy Open To The New Week Ahead…

Updated 01.22.21 @ 9:20a

Focus Is On Next Week…The 1st half of the weekend is easy as high pressure builds into the area, supplying a fresh batch of cold, dry air. Enjoy the sun while you’ve got it. (Don’t anticipate much in the vitamin D department next week). Saturday morning will be very cold (middle 10s for most with single digit ‘chills).

Clouds will thicken up Saturday PM and an initial wave of moisture will arrive into central Indiana Sunday morning. This lead wave of precipitation should be on the light side but with cold air in place, it’ll likely fall as a wintry mix of sleet and potentially freezing rain across the southern half of the state. Where the cold air is a little deeper further north, the predominant precipitation type should take on the form of light snow Sunday morning.

After a potential “lull” Sunday evening, another slug of moisture is inbound Sunday night and Monday. As surface low pressure tracks along the Ohio River during this time frame, this round of precipitation will be heavier and more organized. While this will still require fine tuning, our initial thinking is the form of precipitation will likely fall as the frozen variety across the northern 1/3 of the state with more mixing across immediate central Indiana, and predominantly liquid downstate. We’ll keep a very close eye on the data throughout the weekend, but our initial idea can be found below. Where the precipitation type is predominantly snow, this should be a “plowable” event. Stay tuned.

We’ll have to track another feature by the middle of next week. This could, too, deposit additional wintry conditions across the region, but we need to get through the lead system before trying to get too cute with the mid week feature.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/01/22/01-22-21-weather-bulletin-cold-weekend-messy-open-to-the-new-week-ahead/

Jan 18

01.18.21 Weather Bulletin: Weak Upper Level Disturbances; Bigger Storm System Late Weekend…

Updated: 01.18.21 @ 8:45a

Parade Of Upper Level Disturbances…In what’s been a seemingly unending round of upper level disturbances, we still have 2 more to deal with before we can welcome in high pressure to allow a brief window of quieter weather by late week.

After a mostly cloudy day with a few flurries, a more organized band of snow will roll into south-central Indiana after dark (towards 9p-10p across western areas before overspreading the rest of south-central Indiana) and could deposit a quick inch of snow during the overnight for our friends in Bloomington, Nashville, Seymour, and Columbus. The snow will depart about as quickly as it arrives and will be “outta here” before sunrise Tuesday.

One last upper level feature will race through the state Tuesday evening and early Wednesday with yet another round of scattered snow showers (dusting level stuff).

We’ll then welcome in a cold front Thursday evening and early Friday morning (one of those days where the high will likely come at midnight). The frontal passage will be a dry one, but we’ll notice an uptick in gusty northerly winds during the day Friday. High pressure will then center itself over the Ohio Valley Saturday with a return of sunshine. It’ll be cold though!

A more organized storm will lift northeast into the Ohio Valley by the 2nd half of the weekend. From this distance it appears as if it’ll be one of those “wintry mix to rain” scenarios. More on this and the overall pattern to close the month later today in our Client video update!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/01/18/01-18-21-weather-bulletin-weak-upper-level-disturbances-bigger-storm-system-late-weekend/

Jan 17

VIDEO: Tracking 3 Additional Upper Level Disturbances To Open The Week; Looking Ahead To Next Weekend…

Updated 01.17.21 @ 10:00a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/01/17/video-tracking-3-additional-upper-level-disturbances-to-open-the-week-looking-ahead-to-next-weekend/

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