Category Archives: 7-Day Outlook

Weekly #AGwx And Severe Weather Outlook…

Updated 08.01.21 @ 2:23p

The predominant upper air pattern this week will feature “troughiness” centered in the Ohio Valley with ridging across the PAC NW.
Below normal temperatures will be found from the southern Plains east and northeast (greatest departures from normal across the MO and western OH Valley region) as we progress through the first week of August.
Wetter than normal times can be expected across the Gulf Coast and up the eastern seaboard, along with the inner-mountain region.
We only expect central IN area rain gauges to accumulate between 0.10″ and 0.20″ on average over the upcoming period.

Forecast Period: 08.01.21 through 08.08.21

A secondary cold front will slip through the state this afternoon and may spark an isolated shower or thunderstorm, but “isolated” is the key word. Most will stay rain free in the upcoming week as high pressure dominates. This will be a quieter start to August than is typical, and also much cooler and less humid than we’d expect. In fact, multiple nights this week will feature low temperatures falling into the mid and upper 50s, especially outside of the city, itself. Out next best chance of organized showers and thunderstorms can be expected next Sunday. Enjoy the unusually quiet, cool, and dry weather. We’ll moderate (and turn more active) as we head into Week 2…

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Weekly #AGwx And Severe Weather Outlook…

Updated 07.24.21 @ 7:23a

The ‘mean’ upper air pattern will feature a persistent trough over New England with a ridge (hot dome) across the central Plains in the upcoming 7-day period.
Well above normal temperatures will be anchored across the central Plains and points north and west through the upcoming week. New England will feature below normal temperatures. After a hot start to the week, temperatures will cool late week, locally.
Above normal rainfall can be expected across the Great Lakes region into New England.
In general, we forecast between 0.50” and 0.75” of rain in the upcoming 7-day period across central Indiana, but there will be locally heavier amounts.

Forecast Period: 07.24.21 through 07.31.21

The upcoming 7-day period will place the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley in a northwest flow aloft. This is a notorious pattern for “ridge riding” thunderstorms to roll right into the general region (and sometimes during the hours not typical for storms this time of year – overnight and early morning). While it’s impossible to say exactly when and where these potential storm clusters may track, we’ll keep a watchful eye on the short term period through midweek across our general area. Sometimes these storm clusters are capable of more widespread damaging wind. While the most persistent, serious heat will be well off to our northwest, we can expect a few hot days to open the forecast period (low 90s) before we cool significantly late next week and into next weekend.

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Weekly #AGwx And Severe Weather Outlook…

Updated 07.18.21 @ 7:48a

The upper pattern over the upcoming 7-days will feature a persistent ridge across the West with a trough across the East, tailing back into the South.
It’s a tale of 2 different stories this week from a temperature standpoint: cooler than normal across the East into the southern Plains while heat bakes the northern Plains.
The active pattern will take at least somewhat of a breather to open the new week, locally. The heavy rain/ active storm track will shift south and impact the TN Valley/ Deep South. Wetter than normal conditions are also noted across New England, and monsoonal moisture will plague the Four Corners.
Most central Indiana rain gauges can expect to accumulate between 0.25″ and 0.75″ of rain in the upcoming 7-day period.

Forecast Period: 07.18.21 through 07.24.21

We’ll finally see a period to dry things out to open up the new week. That’s a good thing as we’re running a whopping 3.7″ above normal, month-to-date. High pressure will supply increasing sunshine and eliminate rain chances from our forecast today through Tuesday. Our next opportunity of showers and thunderstorms will come Wednesday as a frontal system scoots through the area. We’ll then get back into a more active stretch as a northwest flow aloft offers up the chance of southeast moving storm clusters to impact our weekend plans. We’ll need to monitor things as we get closer. In addition to a heavy rain threat, this kind of upper pattern has been known to support storm clusters that can also pack strong winds on the leading edge. The other big story this week will be a continued lack of heat. Before we get back to stormy times, the Sunday through Tuesday stretch will truly feature “chamber of commerce” type weather by late-July standards. Get out there and enjoy!

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VIDEO: One More Round Of Rain This Evening Before A Drier Open To The New Week; Active Times Return By The 2nd Half Of Next Week…

Updated 07.17.21 @ 9:34a

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Weekly #AGwx And Severe Weather Outlook…

Updated 07.11.21 @ 8:18a

Persistent ridges will remain in place along both the East and West Coast with a persistent trough in the central through the upcoming 7-day period.
The cooler anomalies in the central will be mostly associated with lower than average daytime maxes (due to the unsettled weather). Hot weather will remain in place across the West.
Above normal precipitation can be expected through the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, and interior Northeast through the course of the upcoming 7-days.
We forecast widespread 2″ to 3″ rainfall totals across central Indiana through the upcoming 7-day period with locally heavier amounts.

Forecast Period: 07.11.21 through 07.18.21

A persistent and rather stagnant upper pattern will remain in place through the upcoming 7-day forecast period. A cut off upper low that will be responsible for our unsettled conditions to open the work week will lose it’s influence on our weather as it gets absorbed in the westerlies by midweek. This will result in coverage of showers/ storms going from “numerous” (now through Tuesday) to “isolated” Wednesday and Thursday. Don’t get used to the drier trend though as a new trough will settle into the Plains during the 2nd half of the week, increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms yet again Friday through next weekend. With such a rich, tropical airmass in place, the threat of localized flash flooding will remain high.

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