Category Archives: 7-Day Outlook

Timing Out Weekend Rain And Looking Ahead At The Pattern For The Remainder Of July…

Updated 07.09.21 @ 8:13a

Drier and cooler air will be with us to close out the work week, but changes are on the horizon just in time for the weekend.

It still appears as if we will deal with a couple rounds of more widespread showers and thunderstorms Saturday. The first complex will likely impact central and southern Indiana Saturday morning (bracketing the hours of 8a to noon west to east for round 1).

High resolution guidance then delivers a 2nd round of showers and thunderstorms into the state during the late afternoon and evening hours.

A moist southerly flow will continue to impact the region into early next week, keeping periods of scattered showers and embedded thunder in our forecast Sunday through Tuesday (most numerous during the afternoon and evening hours).

While we can’t completely rule out rain Wednesday, coverage should be less compared to what we’ll see in the short-term period. Rain and storm coverage will then ramp back up the 2nd half of the week into next weekend. All in all, it’s a very active pattern that will undoubtedly produce localized flash flooding across portions of the region.

7-day precipitation anomalies
We forecast 7-day rainfall totals between 2.5″ and 3.5″ with locally heavier amounts.

Looking ahead, all indications continue to point towards above normal rainfall as we progress through the latter part of July. As has also been the case, we don’t see any sort of sustained heat on the horizon through the end of the month.

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Sweet Summer-Time; Pattern Remains Transient Into Mid-July…

Updated 07.02.21 @ 7:18a

The muggy, tropical airmass that set up shop the better part of the past week is now a thing of the past. Temperatures this morning have fallen into the lower to middle 50s for most of central Indiana (impressive by early July standards) and we’ll likely go a couple of degrees lower than that tomorrow morning. We’ve shaved dew points by 15° to 20° this morning compared to 24 hours ago. Open those windows up and enjoy!

High pressure will dominate our weather through the long holiday weekend, supplying plentiful amounts of sunshine. While the weekend will open cool, temperatures will rebound into the upper 80s for the holiday, itself. Humidity levels will remain low.

Our next chance of rain won’t arrive until Tuesday afternoon/ evening as a cold front approaches. This front will feature scattered showers and thunderstorms into the day Wednesday (early thinking is 0.50″ to 0.75″ type stuff but we’ll fine tune as we get closer). Another feature I’m sure will catch your attention and that’s Tropical Storm Elsa pegged for the eastern Gulf of Mexico on the latest GFS (been very consistent with this idea). Regardless of Elsa’s eventual track, she won’t be a factor with our weather.

We’ll get back to a drier, cooler airmass next Thursday.

No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Client, Dew points, Forecast Discussion, GFS, Independence Day, Rain, Summer, T-storms, Tropics, Unseasonably Cool Weather

Weekly #AGwx And Severe Weather Outlook…

Updated 06.27.21 @ 9:42a

The upper level pattern this week will feature troughiness in the central portion of the country while a significant high pressure ridge continues to bake the Northwest with unseasonably hot, record-breaking temperatures.
Record heat will continue to bake the Northwest while unseasonably cool temperatures will be welcomed into the Front Range, southern Plains, and along the Gulf Coast.
We forecast widespread rainfall amounts between 1.5″ and 2.5″ across central IN in the upcoming 7-day period, but there will be locally heavier totals.
Well above normal precipitation can be expected ahead through the period from the southern Plains into the Great Lakes, TN Valley, and Mid-Atlantic.
While ingredients aren’t in place for a widespread severe weather event, one or two cells could pulse to severe levels later this afternoon across the northern half of IN, including an isolated tornado, given the parameters.

Forecast Period: 06.27.21 through 07.04.21

A frontal boundary will remain draped across the general area through the middle part of this week. While subtle differences will remain regarding greatest concentration of shower and thunderstorm coverage each day, it’s a safe bet most of the region will see a passing shower or storm at some point each day this week. We’ll keep an eye on radar trends this afternoon for the possibility of a local severe weather warning (threat is primarily going to be centered on western and northern parts of the state). Eventually the front will get shoved south and we’ll welcome in drier, cooler air as we get ready to kickoff the long Independence Day weekend. In fact, overnight lows will likely fall into the lower 50s for some by the weekend with highs only in the low-mid 70s. Rain chances will persist Friday and Saturday before we dry things out in earnest for the holiday, itself.

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VIDEO: Tropical Airmass Locks In; Timing Out Most Widespread Rain/ Storm Chances…

Updated 06.25.21 @ 7:30a

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Weekly #AGwx And Severe Weather Outlook…

Updated 06.06.21 @ 8:28a

The upper pattern this week will feature a dominant upper ridge across the northern tier, centered over the Great Lakes region. Meanwhile, a stubborn upper low will move slowly northeast out of the southern Plains early and mid week.
The immediate western seaboard will run below to well below normal this week, while the upper Plains into the Great Lakes run well above average.
Well above normal rainfall can be expected through the period across the Ohio Valley, TN Valley, and Mid Atlantic regions.
We forecast between 1.5″ and 2″ on a widespread basis across central IN in the upcoming 7-day period, but there will be locally heavier amounts with this setup.

Forecast Period: 06.06.21 through 06.13.21

Our weather pattern will be dominated by a stubborn upper low moving slowly northeast out of the southern Plains. Eventually, this upper low will get entangled in the westerlies and begin to lose influence on our weather towards the tail end of the week. Before that, we’ll notice a rather marked difference in the type of airmass this week compared to what we’ve seen of late. A deep tropical flow, straight out of the Gulf of Mexico, will bring moisture-rich air into the Ohio Valley, including dew points that will approach the oppressive level (65° to 70°). While daytime highs will be kept cooler with the clouds and rain around, overnight lows will be elevated with such a humid airmass in place. A daily dose of showers and thunderstorms can be expected in this pattern- most numerous during the afternoon and evening hours. Given the humidity, locally heavy rain is a good bet at times. While coverage of showers and storms should slowly begin to diminish towards Friday and Saturday, we’ll still keep mention of scattered storms in our forecast into next weekend.

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