Category: 7-Day Outlook

Nov 10

Still Eyeing Mid Week Storms; Windy And Colder To Close The Week…

Screen Shot 2015-11-10 at 7.07.33 AMHighlights:

  • Wednesday night storms
  • Very windy to close the week
  • Colder Friday

The overall set-up over the next couple days will feature a strong autumn storm coming off the Rockies (today), crossing the Plains (Wednesday), and heading northeast into the Great Lakes to offer up some “fresh water fury!” (Thursday).

Here’s the track of our storm, courtesy of Weatherbell.com.

TueEvening

WedEvening

ThrEveningWe still need to monitor things closely for the potential of severe weather Wednesday evening, but latest data would suggest a lower chance of severe, overall.  Certainly not worth letting your guard down, but the lack of moisture return and timing are both on our sides in this particular event.  Localized damaging straight line winds are still of greatest concern of any of the severe elements across central IN and this would be for Wednesday night.

Here’s a look at the latest simulated radar for 10p Wednesday.  As we always say, don’t pay particularly close attention to the precise time.  This should be used as guidance as what the radar may look like Wednesday evening.

10pradarWedAs mentioned above, the speed, timing, and lack of moisture return strongly argue against significant rainfall with this storm.  We’ll forecast around 0.25″ with locally heavier totals in storms.  Not a big deal from a precipitation perspective.

What is a big deal is the wind on the backside of the low as northwest gusts really crank in the Thursday-Friday time frame (30-40 MPH).  Needless to say, Thursday isn’t a day to wear a hat. 🙂

Longer term, data continues to argue against any sort of sustained chill through the rest of November.  We note the SOI is actually positive right now.  This is certainly unusual with the ongoing El Nino and well above the base state (a warm sign).

Screen Shot 2015-11-10 at 6.55.51 AM

 

 

 

The MJO is also projected to rumble through the warm Phases of 2 and 3 over the next few weeks.  Note these are overall warmer than normal phases in November.

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/11/10/still-eyeing-mid-week-storms-windy-and-colder-to-close-the-week/

Nov 07

Dry, Chilly November Weekend; Mid Week Storms…

Screen Shot 2015-11-07 at 10.56.54 AMHighlights:

  • Sunny and cool
  • Midweek Storms
  • Prolonged period of windy weather late week

High pressure is building into the Ohio Valley this weekend and helping supply sunshine and that cool, crisp air we enjoy this time of year.  Freeze and frost conditions are ahead tonight and again Monday morning as high pressure moves overhead and results in clear skies and calm winds.

As the high moves to our east, a return SW flow will help moderate temperatures for mid week. As our next storm system comes out of the Plains it’ll intensify as it tracks into the Great Lakes.  Thunderstorms will accompany the cold front as it swings through the state Wednesday night.  We’ll monitor for strong to severe storm potential.  A lot will hinge upon the precise track of the surface low and we’ll keep a close eye on things over the next couple days.  We’ll turn cooler again late next week with strong winds shifting from the SW to NW.

Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.50″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/11/07/dry-chilly-november-weekend-mid-week-storms/

Nov 04

Gusty Storms Followed By November Chill…

Screen Shot 2015-11-04 at 9.55.56 PMHighlights:

  • One more warm day
  • Gusty storms late tonight-Friday morning
  • Feeling more seasonal this weekend
  • Next storm arrives at the end of the period

High pressure will give way to an approaching cold front tonight.  Variably cloudy skies this morning will turn increasingly cloudy as the afternoon/ evening progresses.  Gusty SW winds will increase and gust over 20 MPH by afternoon.

The cold front will move through central IN early Friday morning and be preceded by a line of showers and embedded thunderstorms.  A few of these storms may contain strong winds, and this potential is something we’ll continue to keep a close eye on through the day Thursday.  Beneficial rains will also accompany the frontal passage.

The big story going into the weekend will be a much cooler, more seasonable feel, but sunshine will also be in our forecast.

Our next storm system of note appears to have eyes on the region by the middle of next week.

Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.5″ – 1″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/11/04/gusty-storms-followed-by-november-chill/

Nov 02

We’re Getting Spoiled…

Screen Shot 2015-11-02 at 7.31.53 AMHighlights:

  • Stretch of beautiful weather continues
  • Breezy winds arrive Thursday
  • Stormy end to the work week
  • Cooler weekend

In the short term there’s no reason to waste a bunch of pixels on our forecast.  High pressure will supply beautiful conditions and a building ridge will only promote warmer days ahead.  Look for lots of sunshine and well above normal, near-record, warmth.

Southwest winds will become gusty Thursday and this is in advance of an approaching cold front that will deliver showers and thunderstorms Friday morning.  The cold front will move through Friday afternoon and usher in much cooler air for the upcoming weekend.

Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.50″ – 1.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/11/02/were-getting-spoiled/

Nov 01

Beautiful Weather…

Screen Shot 2015-11-01 at 8.24.24 AMHighlights:

  • Lots of sunshine to open November
  • Unseasonably warm weather
  • Late week storms with a cold front

We couldn’t ask for better weather to open November.  Look for an extended stretch of unseasonably warm, tranquil conditions.  It’ll be perfect to finish last minute yard clean up or get an early start on putting those Christmas decorations up.  Enjoy!

The next weather system of note will arrive Friday in the form of a cold front.  While timing issues are present, we’re keeping an eye on the possibility of scattered showers and thunderstorms (some strong).  A drier and cooler air mass will build in next weekend.  An early look at weather next Sunday would suggest frosty conditions for many…

Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.25″ – 0.50″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/11/01/beautiful-weather-2/

Oct 31

Unseasonably Warm Open To November…

Screen Shot 2015-10-31 at 8.56.22 AMHighlights:

  • Windy and showery Halloween
  • Dry time returns with warmth
  • Watching a more substantial storm at the end of the week

Good morning and happy Halloween, friends!  We’re off to a cold and blustery start.  Temperatures in the 40s, along with a stiff east breeze is presenting a chill in the air!  A rather gloomy day is on deck with “showery” conditions at times, but there will be more dry time than not.

The second half of the weekend will turn brighter and very pleasant, and this will really set the tone for what will be a very tranquil first few days of November (where is time going)?!  Unseasonably warm conditions will be with us for the balance of the upcoming work week and provide a great opportunity to get those yard chores taken care of or Christmas lights put up.

A more substantial storm system will arrive late week with showers and thunderstorms followed by colder air next weekend…

Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.50″ – 1″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/10/31/unseasonably-warm-open-to-november/

Oct 28

Turning Windy And Cooler…

Screen Shot 2015-10-28 at 7.22.22 AMHighlights:

  • Increasing winds
  • Turning much cooler
  • Showers possible for Trick-Or-Treat

Low pressure is tracking into the Great Lakes this morning and the steady rain is ending from west to east.  Showers will remain in our forecast today until a cold front sweeps the region later this evening, but the all day, steady rains are coming to an end.  The other big story today will be strengthening northwest winds late.  Those northwest winds (gusts of 30-40 MPH) will help drive much cooler air southbound to wrap up the work week!

Our next weather maker will, unfortunately, arrive over the weekend and we must maintain shower chances during the all important Saturday evening Trick-Or-Treat forecast.  While heavy rain isn’t anticipated, it could be just enough to require rain gear when you’re out and about.

Ridging will develop over the eastern US early next week and be responsible for a nice stretch of “Indian Summer” weather.

Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.25″ – 0.50″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/10/28/turning-windy-and-cooler/

Oct 25

Feeling More Like Fall; Rain Builds In Tuesday…

Screen Shot 2015-10-25 at 10.29.14 AMHighlights:

  • Cooler and breezy
  • Soaking rain builds in Tuesday
  • Watching Halloween

A cold front moved through the area Saturday afternoon and evening and high pressure is now in control with dry skies, cooler temperatures, and breezy conditions.  All in all, a beautiful autumn day is on tap!  Enjoy!

Remnant moisture of Patricia will track north and team up with a cold front in the Tuesday-Wednesday time period.  Embedded thunderstorms and locally heavy rain can be expected.  This, of course, is much needed after what’s been a dry time of things the past couple months.

The cold front will sweep through the area Wednesday night and put an end to the rain.  Strong northwest winds will usher in a much cooler air mass to wrap up the work week.

We’ll continue monitoring the goings on for Halloween.  Models have varied from run to run over the past few days and timing issues will likely continue.

Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 1.25″ – 1.75″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/10/25/feeling-more-like-fall-rain-builds-in-tuesday/

Oct 23

Much Wetter; Cooler Pattern…

Screen Shot 2015-10-23 at 7.13.29 AMHighlights:

  • Rain moves in later today-Saturday
  • Cooler second half of the weekend
  • Heavy rain event next week

High pressure will give way to an approaching cold front later today and Saturday.  Showers will accompany the front and may spread into western IN as early as this evening before continuing to advance east tonight.  Most of the rain should fall through the first half of Saturday, but we’ll maintain a mention of showers up until the front passes Saturday night.

Cooler, drier air will move in Sunday and to open the new work week.  High pressure will supply a return of sunny, ideal fall conditions.

As we progress deeper into the week, another cold front will team up with moisture from the remnants of Patricia to provide a much needed soaking.  We forecast skies to cloud up Tuesday with rain developing by evening.  Periods of heavy rain can be expected Tuesday night into Wednesday before turning more “showery” in nature.  Much cooler air and blustery conditions can also be expected Thursday.

Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 1.75″ – 2.25″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/10/23/much-wetter-cooler-pattern/

Oct 21

Dry Weather Continues For Now…

Screen Shot 2015-10-21 at 9.55.29 PMHighlights:

  • Dry, warm, and breezy in the short term
  • Weekend rain chances
  • Better rain chances next week

The ups and downs of fall continue.  It was only a few days ago temperatures were in the 20s and widespread frost and freeze conditions were felt across central IN.  Flip forward to Thursday and some neighborhoods will flirt with the 80 degree mark with a gusty SW wind in place.  Dry weather will continue through the daytime Friday before we introduce shower chances Friday night.  Rain chances continue Saturday.

A cold front will sweep through the area Saturday night and provide a more fall-like feel for the second half of the weekend with increasingly sunny skies as the day progresses.

Our next weather maker will come in the form of a cold front the middle of next week and enough Gulf of Mexico moisture may get entrained into the system to present a better threat of more significant rains than what we’ve seen over the past month, or so.  We’ll keep our fingers crossed.  Model solutions as of now vary from an absolute deluge (GEM and European) to more of a 0.5″-1″ type event.  For now, we’ll “split the difference.”

Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 1″ – 1.5″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/10/21/dry-weather-continues-for-now/

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