Category: 7-Day Outlook

Jun 01

Drier Trend Continues This Weekend…

Highlights:

  • Dry close to the work week
  • Mostly dry weekend
  • Slightly cooler next week

Models Continue To Trend Drier…It was only a couple days ago that models were suggesting the threat of heavy rain and scattered strong storms this weekend- beginning Friday.  In this business, it doesn’t take long for things to change sometimes, but this is the first legitimate change for the “drier” that we’ve seen with storm systems since winter.  Time and time again as we draw closer to events, modeling has had to play “catch up” for the wetter over the past few months.

The end result is one that will feature a mostly dry weekend, including only isolated storm coverage Saturday afternoon and evening (most stay dry) and scattered coverage Sunday.  As a whole, many more dry hours are expected this weekend than stormy.

The other big takeaway over the past few days is the cool bias models have had.  This is noted and documented and we’re adjusting our forecast accordingly moving forward.  Drier and cooler air will arrive after Monday showers, but temperatures won’t run nearly as cool as once projected.  For the second week in a row, very pleasant and refreshing weather is ahead for the middle of the week.  Not bad, at all, by June standards.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 0.75″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/drier-trend-continues-this-weekend/

May 31

Pleasant Now; Weekend Storm Chances Return…

Highlights:

  • Sunshine returns
  • Very pleasant
  • Weekend storms
  • Much cooler next week

Very Pleasant…After a couple of gusty thundershowers overnight we’re quickly back to dry and very pleasant weather conditions today.  Thankfully, sunshine and refreshing temperatures will continue Thursday.

Moisture begins to return as early as Friday afternoon and scattered late-day thunderstorms are possible.  While scattered thunderstorms will continue Saturday, there will be more dry time than wet and stormy.  The most widespread shower and thunderstorm activity will occur Sunday as a cold front moves in.

That cold front will be off to our east Sunday night and help usher in a much cooler feel early next week.  Gusty northwest winds and a couple showers are still possible at times through early week.  The bigger story will be the unseasonably cool temperatures as we expect highs in the upper 60s both Monday and Tuesday.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 1.00″ – 2.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/pleasant-now-weekend-storm-chances-return/

May 29

Pleasant Weather As We Close May…

Highlights:

  • Pleasant weather ahead
  • Storm chances return to close the week
  • Drier trend this weekend

Happy Memorial Day…Before we look forward to the rest of the week, a secondary cold front will pass this evening and a couple of showers could bubble up as sunset nears.  These won’t be a big deal and should be quick movers with cooler, drier air building in overnight.  That will set the stage for a very pleasant midweek stretch, temperature-wise.  Another round of showers are possible Wednesday, but more dry time can be expected than wet.

More widespread showers and thunderstorms will return as we close the work week and open the weekend.  A cold front will push southeast Saturday morning and we’ll turn briefly warmer and more humid Friday with increasing thunderstorm chances during the back half of the day.  Once the front slides to our south, drier and cooler air will quickly return.  From this distance the weekend doesn’t look bad, at all.  Unseasonably cool, dry air will continue next week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall:  0.50″ – 1.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/pleasant-weather-as-we-close-may/

May 27

More Dry Time Than Not, But Keeping A Close Eye On Storm Chances…

Highlights:

  • Much more dry time than stormy
  • Timing storm chances
  • Unseasonably cool open to June

Best Storm Chances Arrive Overnight…Low clouds and areas of fog should dissipate and give way to partial sunshine as we progress into the late morning and afternoon hours.  A warm and humid feel will develop this afternoon.

The majority of the long race and holiday weekend will be free of any rain and storms, but we will continue to keep a close eye on the potential of more widespread storm activity:

Overnight tonight into early Sunday morning and again Sunday afternoon.

Data would place more emphasis on the potential of widespread severe weather across southern parts of the state tonight.  Damaging wind and hail are the primary concerns.  Additionally, as a cold front rumbles into the warm and moist airmass in place Sunday afternoon, additional strong to severe storms may develop.  These will be more scattered in nature when compared to the overnight round of storms, but any one particular neighborhood across central Indiana is fair game for getting wet for a brief time Sunday afternoon.

The cold front will sweep through the state Sunday evening and usher in a less humid and pleasant Memorial Day.  We’ll keep an eye on Tuesday into Wednesday for shower chances, but think we’ll remain mostly rain-free.  The region will be under a fast-paced northwest flow aloft and models can struggle with specifics associated with weak disturbances in that northwest flow.  The next chance of storms arrives Friday, along with a warmer feel.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 1.00″ – 1.50″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/more-dry-time-than-not-but-keeping-a-close-eye-on-storm-chances/

May 25

Pleasant Weather Later Today; Unsettled Conditions Return…

Highlights:

  • Rain ends and sunshine arrives later today
  • Pleasant Carb Day
  • Stormy at times this weekend

Trend Is Our Friend Today…Showers are “pinwheeling” around an area of low pressure to our east this morning, but these will begin to diminish as we move through the late morning and into the early afternoon.  In fact, we think sunshine works in here later this afternoon and provides a pleasant finish to the day!

The majority of Friday will feature sunshine and pleasantly warm conditions by afternoon.  We’ll keep a close eye on the radar Friday evening/ night, but currently believe thunderstorms will remain just north of here.

Unfortunately, the long race and Memorial Day weekend won’t be rain-free, but it also won’t be a wash-out.  Most widespread thunderstorm activity should arrive Saturday evening into Sunday morning and some of these could become strong to severe.  The current Day 3 (Saturday) Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center places central and southern portions of the state under a Slight Risk.

While we can’t completely rule out an afternoon shower or storm Sunday, the most widespread activity should occur during the morning hours- before race time. Stay tuned.  We’ll turn cooler early next week…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 1.25″ – 1.75″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/pleasant-weather-later-today-unsettled-conditions-return/