Category: 7-Day Outlook

Nov 27

Extended Stretch Of Raw Conditions…

Screen Shot 2015-11-27 at 7.13.46 AMHighlights:

  • Periods of rain
  • Turning colder
  • Finally begin to dry things out

We sure hope you enjoyed those pleasant conditions on Thanksgiving Day, as rain (and eventually colder air) is settling in for the long haul.

The overall set-up shows a cold front slicing it’s way through the mid section this morning.  This front will continue to slowly settle southeast and much colder air will “ooze” into the area directly behind the boundary later tonight and Saturday.  Unfortunately, once the front passes to our south, additional disturbances will move along the front and enhance rain across our area from time to time over the weekend.

Here’s a snap shot, courtesy of Weatherbell.com, of what we the surface map/ simulated radar may look like as we rumble through the Thanksgiving weekend.

FridayMap

SaturdayMap

SundayMapAs mentioned above, the temperature story will also be a focal point later tonight.  Notice the incredible difference within just a matter of miles as we go deeper into the weekend.  While central IN will be in the “transition” period tonight, all of the area will be on the cold side of the boundary Saturday.  That forecast high in the upper 40s that you see above in our 7-day will be at midnight as most of tomorrow will be in the upper 30s/lower 40s.

8pFriTemp

Sat4pTempWe’ll continue to deal with unsettled and rather “raw” conditions into the early portions of next week, but we should finally be able to shake the damp conditions by Wednesday.  We’ll continue to keep a close eye on yet another system late next week, but models keep this storm to our south as of now.  Stay tuned.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/11/27/5767/

Nov 26

Nice Today, But A Wet And Raw Weekend Coming…

Screen Shot 2015-11-26 at 9.31.37 AMHighlights:

  • Extended wet and raw stretch of weather
  • Turning colder next week

First and foremost, happy Thanksgiving from all of us at IndyWx.com!  We hope you have a blessed day with friends and family and we’re incredibly thankful for your support of what we’re doing here at IndyWx!

Thanksgiving Day, itself, will be filled with very pleasant weather as a SW flow transports mild air northbound and results in highs around 60 this afternoon with a gusty breeze in place.  A scattered shower is possible, but it’s not until we get to late tonight and Black Friday that we expect more widespread rains across the region.

Rain will settle in Friday and temperatures will also go the wrong direction come evening as a cold front passes through the area.  This is the first in a series of rain that we’ll deal with over the Thanksgiving weekend.  A second surge of rain will arrive Saturday into Sunday, followed by a third push of rain Monday.  All total, between 1-2″ of rain is a good bet across a widespread portion of the region between Friday and Monday.

Colder air will settle in by the middle of next week.  We’ll have to closely monitor as a fourth system will be in play.  It’s far too early for details, but we’ll keep an eye on things to see if some sort of wintry precipitation may be in play late next week…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/11/26/nice-today-but-a-wet-and-raw-weekend-coming/

Nov 22

Frigid Start; Looking Ahead To Thanksgiving…

Screen Shot 2015-11-22 at 9.27.08 AMHighlights:

  • Arctic air begins to moderate
  • Next storm system arrives late Thanksgiving
  • Another punch of cold air next weekend

Before we discuss what lies ahead, let’s look back at yesterday’s snow event that “overachieved” for many.  Particularly just northwest of the city where 2″-4″ fell.  Snowfall rates were heavy enough to overcome the initially warm surface temperatures, and it was very impressive to see the way the snow accumulated considering this was a November event that took place from late morning into the early afternoon (when the sun angle does the majority of it’s work).  This was an impressive first snow of the season and this morning’s snowpack is widespread throughout the Mid West.

nsm_depth_2015112205_MidwestThe visible satellite this morning shows the snow cover across the central and northern portions of the state, where single digits and teens were common.

SnowpackThe next few days will feature dry and cold conditions.  While we’ll remain below average, temperatures will slowly begin to moderate from the arctic intrusion of today.

We’ll get into a SW (milder air flow) regime for a brief period of time Thanksgiving Day out ahead of our next storm system that will move in Thanksgiving Night and Black Friday.  Clouds will increase and moisture will spread into the region during the aforementioned time period.  Most of the rain will fall Friday, so plan on taking the rain gear with you as you venture out to begin that Christmas shopping.

Thanksgiving

BlackFridayMuch colder air will pour into the region Thanksgiving weekend and we’ll have to maintain a close eye on the evolution of things late next weekend into early December.  Models will continue to waiver on specific solutions over the next few days, but there will be an attempt of a southern stream storm system coming out and “attacking” the cold air in place…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/11/22/frigid-start-looking-ahead-to-thanksgiving/

Nov 21

Rain Changes To Snow Today; Busy Pattern Into Early December…

Screen Shot 2015-11-21 at 7.47.29 AMHighlights:

  • Rain changes to snow
  • Early season arctic air settles in
  • Next storm arrives for Thanksgiving
  • Eyeing a cold open to December

Our storm system is arriving on schedule this morning as rain is overspreading central IN.  Just north of the city, snow flurries are falling as we type this (Boone County).  Further north it’s mainly a snow event.  Elsewhere, rain will continue to overspread the region before transitioning to snow from late morning into the early afternoon from northwest to southeast.

Here’s what the radar may look like as we progress from morning into the afternoon

8aSat

Forecast radar 8a, courtesy of Weatherbell.com

10a forecast radar, courtesy of Weatherbell.com

10a forecast radar, courtesy of Weatherbell.com

Forecast radar at 1p, courtesy of Weatherbell.com

Forecast radar at 1p, courtesy of Weatherbell.com

 

Forecast radar 2p, courtesy of Weatherbell.com

Forecast radar 2p, courtesy of Weatherbell.com

We think rain will transition to snow for Indianapolis, itself, just after lunch and may come down heavily for a time from early afternoon into the mid afternoon hours before tapering off as evening arrives.  While it may be falling “fast and furious” for a time, warm surface temperatures will limit accumulations from what they would be otherwise.  Here’s our updated snowfall map.

112115SnowMap3The big concern this evening will be flash freezing as a gusty NW flows travels over a fresh snowpack just to our north and helps temperatures plummet into the teens tonight.  Wind chills in the single digits can be expected followed by highs tomorrow only in the 20s.

Moderation will occur as we move through Thanksgiving week before our next storm system arrives late Thanksgiving Day.  Rain and breezy conditions will move in late Thursday into Friday before a much colder air mass oozes into the state late in the period.  This may set the stage for a rather “interesting” open for December as a storm system tries to “attack” the cold…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/11/21/rain-changes-to-snow-today-busy-pattern-into-early-december/

Nov 18

Wet Today; Colder Air Coming…

Screen Shot 2015-11-18 at 7.15.50 AMHighlights:

  • Rain today
  • Breezy and turning cooler
  • Secondary push of early season arctic air

Our big autumn storm system is swirling through the central Plains this morning.  It’ll begin to pick up forward momentum and head northeast over the next 24 hours.

We’re dealing with an impressive fetch of moisture (w/ a Gulf of Mexico connection) this morning and that’ll help feed embedded heavy downpours this morning into the early afternoon.  Here’s a time stamp of forecast radar images, courtesy of Weatherbell.com.

7aSimRadar

11aSimRadar

3pSimRadarAs mentioned above, with a GOM connection, embedded heavy rain will dampen your Wednesday activities.  On average, we’ll add an additional half inch to inch of rain today (that’s on top of what we saw Monday and Tuesday).

RaintotalsOnce to tomorrow all eyes will be on our next storm system that will eventually help pull down the season’s first blast of arctic air.  Ahead of the cold surge, expect light rain to end as light snow across central IN Saturday.  This won’t be a big deal from an accumulation perspective, but it’s always exciting seeing the first snow flakes of the season.  Further north, across our northern tier of counties, a couple inches of snow will be possible.

SatPMStormTrackWe’re also keeping a close eye on Thanksgiving’s weather.  While still a bit early to be specific, initial thoughts suggest we’re dealing with a storm on, or just on either side of Thanksgiving, that will provide rain to begin, but we caution that another surge of early season arctic air looks to pour in behind that storm system and potentially set the stage for a more impactful winter event to open December.  More on that in the days ahead…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/11/18/wet-today-colder-air-coming/

Nov 17

Couple Storms To Watch And Much Colder Air…

Screen Shot 2015-11-17 at 7.30.17 AMHighlights:

  • Periods of rain
  • Turning cooler
  • Next storm offers up wintry precipitation for parts of the state
  • Early arctic blast

Periods of rain will continue into the mid to late afternoon across central IN as “wave 2” of our current storm system moves through.  We’ve added a couple simulated radar images below, courtesy of Weatherbell.com.

9aFuture

2pFutureThis is all in association with a significant autumn storm system that’s been responsible for delivering hefty snows across the Rockies, blizzard conditions across the High Plains, and severe weather across the central and southern Plains.  This storm will lift northeast over the next 24-36 hours.

TuePM

WedPMA third, and final, wave of moisture will push through the state Wednesday, in a weakened state from what our friends to the west will experience (where another round of severe is expected today and tonight).  This is what the radar may look like mid-morning-ish Wednesday.

10aWedFutureWhen all is totaled up from rain that began Monday afternoon and ends Wednesday afternoon, many locales will pick up 1.5″-2″ of needed rainfall.  While significant, those numbers are lower than what originally model data implied, but we’ll take what we can get to push closer to average for November rainfall.

All eyes will then shift to our second storm system that will arrive over the weekend.  There are still more questions than answers in regards to track of this next “wave” of low pressure, but with much colder air in place and pouring in behind the system, snow will fly across northern IN.  As of now we forecast the majority of this event to fall in a liquid form across central IN, but even here precipitation may end as light snow showers the way things stand now.  Stay tuned as we continue to fine tune the track. Regardless, much colder air will be with us to end the period.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/11/17/couple-storms-to-watch-and-much-colder-air/

Nov 15

Nice Today Before Our Next Storm Arrives…

Screen Shot 2015-11-15 at 8.55.18 AMHighlights:

  • Beautiful Sunday
  • Clouds and rain return
  • Colder late week
  • Eyeing a potentially wintry end to November

Our next storm system is coming ashore along the West Coast this morning.  That storm will impact our weather this week, but today we’ll focus on the sunshine and beautiful conditions.  Temperatures will climb into the lower to middle 60s.  With what lies ahead, we’d highly suggest taking advantage of the nice weather today and finish up any of that outdoor work you may have.

Clouds will increase Monday and the initial surge of moisture will provide showers and light rain by afternoon and evening.  A strong southerly flow continues Tuesday into Wednesday with periods of rain.  It won’t rain the entire time, but more times than not.  A push of heavy rain still appears likely Tuesday night into Wednesday.

The image below is a look at forecast PWATs, thanks to Weatherbell.com, for Tuesday night.  When these values reach 1.5″-2″ that’s a good indication for very heavy rains.  We’ll continue to forecast widespread 2″+ type rainfall with this storm system.

gfs_pwat_conus2_14Once this next storm moves out, we’ll get back to drier and colder times to end the work week.  Attention will then shift to a colder, potentially wintry, end to the month, including the Thanksgiving holiday. It’s too early for specifics on storminess, but model data does hint at a storm of “interest” around Thanksgiving.  With colder air making a return, it’s certainly possible this next storm has a wintry component to it…

The latest GFS ensemble temperature anomaly chart shows the colder than average pattern setting in to wrap up November.

KIND_2015111500_nxa_384

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/11/15/nice-today-before-our-next-storm-arrives/

Nov 13

Cold Night Coming; Next Big Storm Slated For Next Week…

Screen Shot 2015-11-13 at 4.04.40 PMHighlights:

  • Moderating temperatures after a hard freeze
  • Next big storm arrives early next week
  • Wintry fun and games around Thanksgiving

Today has featured wall-to-wall sunshine and while it’s looked great from the inside looking out, that wind is still whipping!  Gusts have reached 40 MPH in spots across central and northern parts of the state.

Winds will finally die down tonight and with clear skies in place a hard freeze awaits for central IN.  The latest high resolution data, courtesy of Weatherbell.com, suggests mid to upper 20s tonight and we agree.

hires_t2m_indy_19

Our next big autumn storm awaits for the early and middle portions of next week.  Questions remain concerning severe weather across our area, but as of now it appears the dynamics needed for severe weather, locally, will remain too far to our west.  We’ll continue to monitor.  Latest forecast models (Euro top and GFS bottom) have some differences with the track of our next storm- both centered on Tuesday night.

ECTueNt

GFSTueNtThe differences with timing and track are significant and we’ll continue to keep a close eye on things.

We remain very confident on heavy rainfall potential as a prolonged southerly fetch off the GOM (Gulf of Mexico) will transport copious moisture northbound.  Widespread 2″-3″ type rainfall totals are a good bet with this set up.

Longer term, we remain confident on a pattern change towards colder than normal conditions to wrap up November.  Additionally, a storm system will likely cross the country Thanksgiving week and could offer up the season’s first widespread wintry “fun.”

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/11/13/cold-night-coming-next-big-storm-slated-for-next-week/

Nov 12

Very Windy Today; Next Big Storm Next Week…

Screen Shot 2015-11-12 at 7.17.23 AMHighlights:

  • Very strong winds
  • Dry times return
  • Big storm next week

A cold front swept through the state during the predawn hours.  While a few breaks of sunshine may be seen early this morning, low clouds will quickly spread back over the region.

Wind will be the big story today as we still think gusts over 50 MPH are a good bet throughout central parts of the state.  Note the tight pressure gradient that remains in place across the region today into Friday.  Friday won’t be AS windy as today, but still quite blustery.

gfs_ptype_slp_conus2_3

gfs_ptype_slp_conus2_7Our next big weather maker will arrive during the early to middle portions of next week.  Model consensus continues to highlight a hefty rain event and thunderstorms.  Early numbers would suggest 2″-3″ potential.  More details on our next storm tomorrow and on Twitter (@IndyWx).

Before we close this morning, we wanted to post the updated JAMSTEC seasonal outlook for the upcoming winter.  As a whole there aren’t a lot of changes from previous runs.  (We like to see consistency :-)).

JAMSST

JAMTemp

JAMPrecipOverall, it agrees with our forecast and strongly disagrees with any of those warm winter forecasts out there for the south and east.  One note, just because the drier anomalies show up over the Ohio Valley (what you would typically expect during a moderate to strong El Nino event) doesn’t necessarily mean it’ll be a lower than normal snow season.  Keep in mind, moisture content in snow is much less than rain.

After taking a look at things, I like where we stand with our Winter Outlook.  One thing’s for sure, time will tell!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/11/12/very-windy-today-next-big-storm-next-week/

Nov 11

Big Time Wind Event; Active Pattern…

Screen Shot 2015-11-11 at 7.17.55 AMHighlights:

  • Nighttime storms
  • Prolonged wind event
  • Eyeing our next storm

The morning has dawned with mid and high level clouds painting the back drop as the sun rises.  We’ve shared several photos on our Twitter page (@IndyWx) of the beautiful sun rise.  Thank you and keep ’em coming!

Low pressure is moving off the Rockies this morning (where another hefty snow dump took place overnight) and into the Plains.  The low will then track into the Great Lakes Thursday.  As the low moves northeast, it’ll swing a cold front through our neck of the woods Thursday morning.  We still bracket tonight into the wee morning hours Thursday for thunderstorm potential.  See the simulated radar valid at 10p this evening, courtesy of Weatherbell.com.

10pWed

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) is lacking with this storm and moisture return isn’t impressive.  This is good news as it will reduce the amount of severe weather we’ll see.  However, it should be noted that it won’t take much to bring down a severe wind report or two and that is our primary concern tonight with any storm.

CAPE- courtesy of Weatherbell.com

CAPE- courtesy of Weatherbell.com

Surface Dew Points- courtesy of Weatherbell.com

Surface Dew Points- courtesy of Weatherbell.com

Precipitable Water- courtesy of Weatherbell.com

Precipitable Water- courtesy of Weatherbell.com

Because of the lack of moisture return and the overall speed of the system, rainfall tonight won’t be impressive for most (0.25″-0.50″ on average) with the exception of localized stronger storms.

What will be impressive is the wind, even without storms.  A Wind Advisory has been issued for late tonight and Thursday, via the National Weather Service out of Indianapolis, and rightfully so.  We wouldn’t be surprised if a portion of this is upgraded to a High Wind Warning later today or tonight as gusts of 50 MPH+ will be a concern through the day Thursday as our low occludes over the Lakes.

A period of drier air will return to wrap up the week and head into early next week, but we eye another big storm system for the middle of next week.  Forecast models differ on precise details, as you’d expect at this juncture.

WedStormTrack

ThrStormTrack

The GFS (above) isn’t shying away from another significant impact event.  The European isn’t as bullish early on.  All mid range models do produce moderate to heavy rains over the region.  Stay tuned as we continue to monitor.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/11/11/big-time-wind-event-active-pattern/

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