Category: 7-Day Outlook

Jan 30

Taste Of Spring Today, But Winter Roars Back…

Screen Shot 2016-01-30 at 9.32.06 AMHighlights:

  • Active period of weather ahead
  • Spring-like now turns much colder
  • Storms in between
  • Snowy February ahead?

Taste Of Spring Today, But Winter Roars Back…A quick scan over the 7-day above shows the busy times that lie ahead.  Our suggestion to you?  Enjoy today’s sunshine and early taste of spring!  Let us worry about what lies ahead.  You’re welcome!  😉

We’ll add some mid and high level cloudiness into the picture later today and those clouds will lower and thicken tonight.  Tomorrow, though still warm, won’t be as nice.  Look for cloudy skies, scattered showers, and breezy SW winds.

We’ll be in between systems Monday with a generally dry day and a bit cooler, though still above average for this time of year.

A strong area of low pressure will quickly move from the central Plains Monday night into the Great Lakes Tuesday night.  We’ll be on the warm side of this storm’s track and will note a dramatic shift in our wind to the SW early Tuesday that will help temperatures zoom into the lower 60s Tuesday.  The downside?  We’ll have to monitor things closely for strong to severe thunderstorm potential.

The area of low pressure will swing a cold front through here late Tuesday night and send temperatures into a free-fall for mid week.  We’ll have to watch things closely as we’ll be in an active NW flow heading into next weekend.  You know the drill by now- models struggle picking up pieces of energy plenty capable of producing accumulating snow from this distance with that potentially active NW flow.

Longer term, winter fans should really like what we’re seeing.  We’ll have a more extensive post on this later in the weekend, but the pattern shaping up is one that’ll feature the more sustained cold pattern (relative to normal) in the middle of the country through most of February, including the Ohio Valley.  A busy interior storm track is also noted in the coming weeks.  Far too early for specifics, but it’s a pattern plenty capable of leading to above normal monthly snowfall in our neck of the woods.  Again, more later!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/01/30/taste-of-spring-today-but-winter-roars-back/

Jan 26

Colder Today With Flurries…

Screen Shot 2016-01-26 at 7.22.15 AMHighlights:

  • Breezy and colder with flurries
  • Fast-moving clippers to our north
  • Mild and increasingly damp weekend

Colder Today With Flurries…A cold front passed through central IN during the overnight and gusty NW winds are greeting us out the door this morning.  A few flurries or light snow will likely fly later this morning and this afternoon.

As we progress into mid week, we’ll eye a couple of fast moving clipper systems to our north.  For the most part, central IN will be left out of any impacts, aside from a gusty SW wind from time to time.  A few flurries may clip eastern parts of the state Thursday.

The upcoming weekend will be a warm one, considering we’re in late January.  Moisture will begin to increase Sunday with clouds and light rain the result.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/01/26/colder-today-with-flurries/

Jan 25

Evening Showers; Relatively Quiet Week…

Screen Shot 2016-01-25 at 7.43.54 AMHighlights:

  • Evening light rain
  • Clipper watch
  • Mild weekend ahead

Evening Showers…A weak cold front will press through central IN tonight.  Moisture return isn’t impressive with this system, but light showers will scoot through the area this evening.  Rainfall amounts won’t add up to much.

A few flurries may fly Tuesday morning as cold air moves back into the area.  Temperatures during the day time Tuesday will be below freezing for the most part after a predawn high.

Forecast models still disagree with the overall track of a clipper system Thursday.  The GFS and European models don’t suggest we deal with any snow, whatsoever.  Meanwhile, the Canadian model remains consistent on Thursday snow showers.  Either way, this shouldn’t be a big deal.  We’ll keep an eye on things.

The weekend will shift unseasonably mild as we get into a strong SW flow.  We’ll eye a developing strong storm across the Plains early next week…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/01/25/evening-showers-relatively-quiet-week/

Jan 23

Dry Weekend; Clipper Snow Next Week?

Screen Shot 2016-01-23 at 10.13.29 AMHighlights:

  • Cold, but dry weekend
  • Weak system delivers showers/ flurries early week
  • Models disagree on clipper track

Cold, But Lots-O-Sunshine…A major winter storm is hammering areas still from the southern Appalachians into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast.  Light flurries fell across central IN Friday evening, but drier air quickly built into the region overnight and sets the stage for a cold, but sunny weekend.  Gusty NE winds that were felt Friday and overnight will also begin to diminish today.

Our next weather maker will blow into town Monday, but will be weak.  Showers will accompany the frontal passage Monday evening before snow flurries/ light snow showers fly in the cold air advection Tuesday morning.  All in all, this won’t be a big deal.

The next potential “trouble maker” awaits for the middle part of the week, but caution model data is all over the board on the eventual track of this clipper system.  We’ll lean more towards the Canadian solution at this juncture (model of choice with clippers) and forecast snow showers to build into central IN Thursday.  From this distance, model solutions range from snowy (light accumulation) to dry and mild.  We wouldn’t have it any other way this winter. 😉

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/01/23/dry-weekend-clipper-snow-next-week/

Jan 21

Action To Our South; Relatively Quiet Here…

Screen Shot 2016-01-21 at 7.38.55 AMHighlights:

  • Cold, dry, and increasingly windy
  • Heavy snow across far southern IN
  • Weak system Monday

Watching A Major Winter Storm To Our South…As busy as things will be for our friends to our south and east, the weather, locally, will be about as quiet as we can expect this time of year.  Hefty (and in some cases crippling) snows will fall to our south and southeast.  Here on the home front we can expect a day with mixed clouds and sun today before we turn mostly cloudy Friday.  We’ll feel the “outer impacts” of the major winter storm to our south Friday in the form of strong and gusty east winds that slowly begin to diminish Saturday.  Sunday looks beautiful and it’ll feel downright balmy when compared to the bitterly cold air of late.

Our next weather maker is looking less and less impressive and will deal a few showers Monday followed by cold air returning Tuesday and Wednesday with scattered snow showers.  – Doesn’t look like a big deal in the least from this distance.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/01/21/action-to-our-south-relatively-quiet-here/

Jan 20

Snowy Morning…

Screen Shot 2016-01-20 at 7.43.03 AMHighlights:

  • Snowy morning
  • Major winter storm impacts the southern Appalachians into the Mid Atlantic
  • Dry, cold weekend in store

Snowy Morning; Next Winter Storm Shifts South…This morning’s snow “behaved” as planned with a quick thumping across a large portion of central IN.  A quick scan of accumulation reports into the office this morning indicate amounts, on average, right around 2″ (some a bit more, some a little less).  We’ll recap later this evening, with an overlay of our snowfall forecast map.  Due to the timing of this event, this morning’s commute is a nightmare, as expected.

As we look ahead, the major winter storm (crippling for some) late week is trending further and further south.  Now, instead of the initial low tracking through the TN Valley (which would’ve argued for a reflection of the low up west of the mountains), it appears to stay so far south that it tracks along the northern Gulf states before the primary low takes over and delivers the “snowy goods” to our friends from the east TN mountains north and east.  By the way, this will be a monster event for the southern Appalachians (yard stick will be needed to measure the final product).  Back here on the home front, we’ll forecast a dry, cold stretch with a blustery Friday (east winds gusting 20-30 MPH).

Our next weather maker of note will come early next week.  More on that as we draw closer.

Safe travels and happy snow to all! 🙂

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/01/20/snowy-morning/

Jan 18

Frigid Day; Watching Accumulating Snow Threat Tomorrow Night…

Screen Shot 2016-01-18 at 8.05.46 AMHighlights:

  • Frigid day
  • Accumulating snow Tuesday night-Wednesday
  • Late week winter storm threat south
  • Active pattern continues next weekend

Bitterly Cold With Developing Snow Tuesday Night…It’s a bright, but frigid start to the day with mostly sunny skies in place.  Temperatures are below zero for many this morning and ‘chills have dipped to as low as 20 below.  If you have to be out today, layer up and limit time outdoors.

Clouds will quickly be on the increase Tuesday afternoon and snow will develop Tuesday night, continuing into Wednesday morning.  Model data suggests snow may come down at a good clip at times early Wednesday morning. The initial snowfall map (below) places our best idea on accumulation for now.  As we always say, this should be used as guidance at this distance and we’ll have to fine tune as we move forward.

The consensus of nearly all model data shifts our late week winter storm further south overnight.  It’s too early to write this storm off, but we’ll trend our forecast drier in the Thursday-Friday time frame for now (that blocking high to our north can, at times, be a blessing and a curse ;-)).  Another chance of snow rumbles in late in the weekend.

InitialCall11912016event

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/01/18/frigid-day-watching-accumulating-snow-threat-tomorrow-night/

Jan 17

Active Wintry Week Ahead…

Screen Shot 2016-01-17 at 10.00.00 AMHighlights: 

  • Frigid stretch of weather
  • Accumulating snow mid week
  • Winter storm potential late week

Busy Winter Pattern…Frigid air is helping usher in the new week and this morning’s snow bursts are setting the tone for potentially “more important” snow events in the days to come.

First things first though and that’s today.  Morning snow showers and heavier squalls will diminish and give way to an absolutely bitter feel for the afternoon.  Highs today took place at midnight and will continue to plummet through the day.  We’ll be in the single digits by dinner.  Wind chill values tonight and Monday will reach 20 degrees below zero.  Ouch!

All eyes will then shift to an approaching mid week snow maker and this should be a “plowable” event for most.  We expect a swath of snow to roll through central IN late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

Just as soon as the mid week snow maker moves out, we’ll have to turn our attention to late week.  There are many questions regarding the northward extent of snow with this storm, but the overall set-up from this distance has to put a smile on the faces of Ohio Valley snow lovers.  The blocking high to the north will be sufficient to supply cold air at the surface as moisture is supplied from the Gulf of Mexico, but it will limit how far north the low will track.  Is this an Ohio Valley or TN Valley event?  Ensemble data at the moment leads us to believe this will track far enough north to impact our region.  We’ll have to sort through additional details in the coming days.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/01/17/active-wintry-week-ahead/

Jan 16

Bitter Week Ahead; What About Snow Chances?

January to date is running 2 degrees above normal at IND.  That number will drop significantly this week with the punch of arctic air inbound.

ncep_cfsr_noram_t2m_anom

After a snowy week last week, we’ll attempt to make another run this week.  Despite model inconsistencies, we focus on Sunday morning, Tuesday night-Wednesday morning, and late week for accumulating snow prospects.  More on that in a minute.

Note the difference in snow cover, locally, when compared to this time last year.  Can we get things to look similar to image 2 below come late week?  We’re on the playing field, at the very least.

1

2The arctic surge of bitter air will blast into central IN Sunday morning late into the afternoon. Temperatures will be on the plunge, and reach the single digits come evening.  Wind chill values will go below zero Sunday afternoon.

Forecast temperatures around lunchtime Sunday. Source: Weatherbell.com

Forecast temperatures around lunchtime Sunday. Source: Weatherbell.com

Forecast temperatures Sunday evening. Source: Weatherbell.com

Forecast temperatures Sunday evening. Source: Weatherbell.com.

A blast of snow showers and embedded squalls will accompany the arctic surge Sunday morning and may accumulate up to an inch in spots.  Strong and gusty winds will create brief whiteout conditions from time to time.

1We eye the Tuesday night and Wednesday time frame for the next opportunity of accumulating snow.  A “plowable” snow may be in the works during this time frame and we’ll continue to keep a close eye on things.

Wednesday

Wednesday morning as depicted by the 12z GFS. Source: Tropicaltidbits.com

Things remain very active moving forward.  While the model specifics differ significantly at this juncture (no surprise ;-)), it’s important to look at the overall picture and see the potential of a fairly widespread winter event late next week.f144ps2png-atls13-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-AYqVLj

Stay tuned.  There are significant differences between the potential of this event and the reality of the past several more significant precipitation makers.  – Namely a blocking cold high to the north as the more significant moisture arrives.  This will help supply the cold and limit the northward track to a point.  Is it a mostly snow event or do we get into the wintry mix potential?   Many questions will have to be answered in the days ahead.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/01/16/bitter-week-ahead-what-about-snow-chances/

Jan 15

Cold Weather Gear Required Moving Forward…

Screen Shot 2016-01-15 at 8.23.56 AMHighlights:

  • Rain develops today
  • Frigid air awaits
  • Tracking snow makers

Turning Wet Today; Big Cold Coming…It’s a mild start to our Friday, but overcast skies will give way to developing showers late morning, continuing through the afternoon hours.  Colder air will push in tonight and may lead to a transition to wet snow before precipitation ends.  Forecast models are struggling on handling the arrival of cold air and this will once again be a “now-cast” type situation as we go into the evening hours.  When compared to last Saturday night’s event, this isn’t nearly as significant from a total precipitation standpoint, including snow totals.

Saturday will be a day where we’re in between storm systems.  Morning flurries will be possible, but we continue to eye an arctic wave pushing into the area Sunday.  Moisture will be limited, but with very cold air moving in, it won’t take much to “fluff up” a quick inch.  The bigger deal will be strong and gusty winds and bitterly cold air.

Forecast models have really been struggling as of late and our overall confidence on how they handle things the middle of next week is quite low at the moment.  That said, Wednesday-Thursday will require our attention moving forward for the prospects of accumulating snow.  Another storm awaits late next week…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/01/15/cold-weather-gear-required-moving-forward/

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