Category: 7-Day Outlook

Jul 13

Another Stormy Day, But Relief Is Coming…

Highlights:

  • Storms increase in coverage and intensity this afternoon
  • More refreshing air arrives for the weekend
  • Quiet start to next week

Stormy Afternoon On Deck…A frontal boundary will slip into the state today and slowly push south over the next 24 hours, eventually making it out of the state Friday.  The combination of this trigger (front) along with a genuinely “soupy” air mass (precipitable water values will be north of 2″ and dew points will remain in the low-mid 70s) will result in increasing storm coverage this afternoon into the evening hours.  Some of the storms may become severe and it also won’t take much for flash flooding to develop where storms train.  In some cases, these storms will dump rainfall rates of 2″-3″/ hour.  From a severe stand point, we’re most concerned for the potential of damaging straight line winds.

Thankfully, we’ll clear things out in time for the upcoming weekend.  With the exception of a few morning thunderstorms downstate Friday, the trend will be a drier one and that will continue into Saturday.  Along with the drier air, we’ll also note slightly cooler temperatures.  It’ll feel much more refreshing than the past couple days.

A weak reinforcing cold front will sweep through the state Sunday evening and this boundary could kick-up a scattered thunderstorm or two Sunday afternoon-evening before we return to dry times Monday and Tuesday.  Moisture (and heat) will return by the middle of next week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 1″-2″ (locally heavier totals)

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/another-stormy-day-but-relief-is-coming/

Jul 11

Another Stormy Day…

Highlights:

  • Tuesday and Thursday appear to be the stormiest days
  • Drier trend to close the week; open the weekend
  • Humid air gives way to a more refreshing feel

Stormy Periods…Storms are building across west-central Indiana this morning and these will settle into the city, itself, as the rush hour nears.  This is only the beginning of multiple rounds of thunderstorms that will ride in a northwest to southeast fashion across central Indiana today.  With dew points in the lower and middle 70s and precipitable water values exceeding 2″, additional flash flooding will result today for some communities where storms “train” over the same areas.  A couple of strong-to-severe storms are also possible this afternoon with large hail and damaging straight line winds the biggest concern.

While we can’t rule out a passing storm Wednesday, overall storm coverage should be significantly reduced tomorrow as we get in on bit of a breather before another active time of things Thursday.

A surface front will settle south Friday.  Best thunderstorm chances should occur during the front half of the day before a drier regime builds in from the north Friday evening and into Saturday.  Temperatures will cool slightly, but we’ll really be able to notice a dramatic reduction in the humidity.

Sunday should be mostly dry, but we note a weak secondary boundary that will pass late in the day.  This may be just enough to kick up a shower or thunderstorm Sunday afternoon or evening.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall:  2″-3″ (locally heavier amounts)

 

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/another-stormy-day/

Jul 09

Heavy Rain; Strong Storms This Week…

Highlights:

  • Beautiful Sunday
  • Multiple rounds of heavy rain and storms through the work week
  • Cooler next weekend

Gearing Up For Busy Times…We’ll wrap the weekend up on a pleasant note with plentiful sunshine and low humidity.  Enjoy it as active times loom…

We’ll begin to notice an increase in humidity as early as tonight and there’s a chance some of our far western counties could get in on a shower or thunderstorm this evening into the nighttime.  Better coverage of showers and thunderstorms will come in waves beginning Monday and continuing through the majority of the work week.  Individual disturbances moving southeast will have ample energy and moisture to work with and it won’t take much for storms to become severe in this kind of set-up.  Dew points will reach “oppressive” levels Monday into Tuesday (70°+) and precipitable water values will exceed 2″ at times.  Accordingly, where storms “train” there’s the potential of 3″-6″ of rain by week’s end.

While we can’t shut off rain and storm chances, we can introduce cooler and drier air working in here by the weekend.  Despite the drier, more refreshing feel, an active northwest flow will remain and a secondary cold front may sweep through the state Saturday, sparking additional showers and storms.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 2″-3″ (locally heavier amounts)

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/heavy-rain-strong-storms-this-week/

Jul 08

Pleasant Weekend Gives Way To A Stormy Week Ahead…

It was a stormy Friday across central Indiana, including hail, damaging winds, and localized flash flooding.  Thankfully, as we open the weekend, weather conditions are much more pleasant.  The surface front that helped trigger the bumpy close to the work week has pushed south and is allowing a much more pleasant (much drier and slightly cooler) air mass to ooze into the region.  With the exception of patchy fog across southern Indiana, skies are mostly sunny.

Patchy fog will burn off by 10a across southern Indiana.

A cooler and less humid feel is greeting us out the door this morning.

Pleasant weather will remain through the majority of Sunday, but we’ll begin to notice an uptick in humidity late in the day.  This is a harbinger of things to come as a true tropical feel lifts back north.  Factor in the increasing moisture levels (it’ll feel oppressive by mid-week) with increasing amounts of energy and instability and big storms will likely result.

A moisture-rich air mass will engulf the region much of the upcoming work week.

The core of the heat will be centered over the western half of the country next week and with a northwest flow aloft, we’ll have to remain on guard for individual disturbances tracking southeast into the Mid West and Ohio Valley.  These will help trigger more widespread storm coverage from time-to-time through the week.  Similar to the storms yesterday, large hail, damaging winds, and flash flooding are the biggest concerns with these storm complexes.  7-day rainfall totals through late-week will feature widespread 2″-3″ across central Indiana, including locally heavier amounts of 3″-6″ in spots where storms train.  We’ll have to sure-up specific storm timing as we get closer.

As we look ahead, timing, once again, may be our friend, as modeling currently suggests a drier regime returns by next weekend.

Make it a great Saturday, friends!  More later!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/pleasant-weekend-gives-way-to-a-stormy-week-ahead/

Jul 06

Strong Storm Potential Friday Before A Pleasant Saturday…

Highlights:

  • Strong-to-severe storms Friday
  • Pleasant Saturday
  • Humidity and storms return

Active Friday For Some…Before we can discuss the pleasant and absolutely gorgeous weather conditions that will welcome in the weekend, we have to deal with a potentially “bumpy” few hours Friday afternoon into the early evening across portions of the state.

Central Indiana is under the gun for severe weather Friday.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) outlines central and southern portions of the state for the threat of severe weather Friday.  Damaging straight line winds are the greatest concern with a line of storms that develop Friday afternoon and push southeast.  Drier weather will quickly build in behind a cold front Friday evening and help usher in a very pleasant open to the weekend.  We’ll certainly notice the lower dew points Saturday and cooler feel with plentiful sunshine.  Enjoy it!

Unfortunately the pleasant and dry conditions won’t last very long, and shower chances return as quickly as Sunday afternoon.  Humidity and a true tropical feel will also engulf the region next week.  This, combined with upper air disturbances moving through the Mid West and Ohio Valley, will aid in daily “splash and dash” thunderstorm coverage.  With a moisture-rich air mass in place, stronger storms will produce torrential downpours.  Overall, the active and unsettled summer that central Indiana has grown accustomed to shows no signs of let-up in the week ahead…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall:  0.00″
  • Rainfall:  2.00″-3.00″ (locally higher totals)

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/strong-storm-potential-friday-before-a-pleasant-saturday/