Category: 7-Day Outlook
Highlights:
- Needed quiet time today
- Stormy mid week; high-impact severe event possible
- Drier to close the week
All Eyes On Wednesday…Today is an easy one. Drier air will move into central parts of the state as we progress into the afternoon and evening hours, and we’ll also enjoy lots of sunshine. It’ll feel fantastic out come evening!
All eyes will remain locked in on Wednesday as we monitor the prospects of potentially two rounds of thunderstorms. Timing and track will have to be fine tuned, but we think the day offers up the possibility of morning thunderstorms, followed by a second round of storms during the afternoon and evening hours. All modes of severe weather are in play, locally, Wednesday- particularly damaging wind. Additionally, localized flash flooding will be likely where storms train. It’ll be an important day to have a means to get the latest watches and warnings. It wouldn’t be a bad idea to review your severe weather safety plan with your family at some point today.
After morning storms Thursday we should dry things out during the second half of the day and on into the first half of the weekend. Storm chances return Sunday-Monday.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 1.5″-2.5″ (locally heavier totals)
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/06/21/needed-breather-today-before-wednesday-severe/
Highlights:
- Front arrives late Monday
- Strong storms; heavy rain threat Wednesday
- Unsettled pattern
Busy Week Ahead…The overall pattern features the mean ridge position across the Four Corners region and sets up an active NW flow for our part of the country. It’s a pattern we need to get used to as it’ll remain intact to close the month and open July. Challenges are present in regards to specifics with timing and track of thunderstorm complexes we’ll deal with this week, particularly Wednesday.
In the shorter term, a frontal boundary will slip into central IN Monday night and a broken band of thunderstorms will accompany it. A few storms could reach strong to severe levels Monday evening.
Attention will then shift to Wednesday. Ingredients are coming together to present both a severe component (damaging wind the biggest threat) and localized flash flood threat. We’ll update our latest thinking Monday morning.
As we progress into late week, additional shower and thunderstorm complexes are possible, but we stress timing issues abound. It’ll be a warm and humid end to the week.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 1.50″-2.00″ (locally heavier totals)
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/06/19/stormy-at-times/
Highlights:
- Mostly dry and hot weekend
- Humidity levels on the rise Sunday
- Storm chances return
Put On That Sunscreen…High pressure will supply a beautiful open to the weekend, including mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies, low humidity levels, and warm temperatures.
Our airflow will shift to the SW Sunday and help push a more humid air mass back into the state as the day progresses. An isolated thunderstorm could accompany the return of the humid air, but for now we’ll maintain a mostly dry forecast.
Better thunderstorm chances arrive Monday evening into Tuesday as a cold front pushes in from the north. A locally strong to severe storm is possible. As we move forward into the middle and latter parts of next week, models suggest a rather unsettled time of things.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 1″-2″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/06/18/mostly-dry-weekend-before-storm-chances-return/
Highlights:
- Scattered strong-severe storm threat Wednesday
- Drier close to the week
- Next front arrives Monday PM
Keeping An Eye On Wednesday’s Storm Threat…Today’s rain numbers weren’t uniform in the least, but several neighborhoods picked up beneficial rains of over 1.5″. Wednesday will also feature the threat of showers and thunderstorms (again, some with locally heavy downpours). Some of these storms could also reach strong to severe levels during the afternoon/ evening, particularly if morning rain doesn’t “get in the way.” We’ll watch data overnight and update accordingly come morning.
We’ll turn drier and slightly cooler to close the work week and head on into the weekend. The heat will begin to crank again early next week, with highs around 90 Sunday and Monday. Our next weather maker looks to arrive Monday evening as a cold front pushes in from the north. We’ll feature shower and thunderstorm chances in our Monday PM forecast.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.50″-1.00 (locally heavier totals)
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/06/14/strong-storm-threat-wednesday/
Highlights:
- Less humid open to the week
- Mid week storms
- Drier weekend
Warm, But Less Humid…As Sunday afternoon progressed into evening, notably drier air moved into central IN. That less humid feel will be with us as we open the work week, but will still warm quickly (upper 80s this afternoon).
An increasingly moist air mass will return Tuesday into Wednesday and will promote locally heavy rainfall within thunderstorms that develop. We expect isolated to widely scattered storm coverage Tuesday and scattered coverage Wednesday. While uniform significant rainfall isn’t likely, localized torrential downpours will be possible as precipitable water values (PWATs) increase. Additionally, strong to severe storms will be possible.
A drier air mass will return to close the week and head into the weekend. At one time, models suggested we’d deal with a slow-moving “cut off” low pressure system, but recent trends continue the drier theme.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.25″-0.75″ (locally heavier amounts)
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/06/13/mid-week-storms/
Highlights:
- Storm threat over the southern half of the state
- Turning less humid
- Scattered mid week storms
- Cooler to close the week
Another Hot One…A weak frontal boundary will slip through central IN this afternoon and evening and serve as a “trigger” for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms for central and southern parts of the state. We’ll also turn less humid this evening into Monday.
Warmth and humidity surge again Tuesday and there will be times of scattered showers and thunderstorms through Thursday. Uniform rains aren’t expected, but there will be some localized heavy downpours. Remember the saying of “haves and have nots.”
A cooler northeasterly air flow will arrive to “freshen things up” a bit as we close the week.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.25″-0.75″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/06/12/turning-less-humid/
Highlights:
- Storm chances for some by this afternoon/ evening
- Turning hot and humid
- Better chances of widespread rain by the middle of next week
Plan To Sweat…The period opens with a challenging northwest flow aloft. Already this morning we note a complex of showers and thunderstorms across MN and IA. This storm complex will continue to drop to the southeast and will likely impact portions of the state later this afternoon and evening- especially north and northeast areas. An additional storm complex is possible Friday.
The big story to close the week and head into the weekend will be the push of hot, humid air. Many will be close to 90 degrees tomorrow and widespread lower 90s are a lock Saturday. Plan for frequent breaks if your plans take you outside for any length of time.
As we look deeper into next week we note an increasingly wet and stormy signal on the models and will trend our forecast in that direction for the middle and latter portions of the week.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.50″-1.00″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/06/09/turning-hot-challenging-nw-flow-pattern-aloft/
Highlights:
- Dry and refreshing
- Heat and humidity build
- Timing rain and storm chances
Open The Windows…A northwest flow is ushering in a refreshing feel across the region today. Find a way to eat lunch outdoors and open up the windows to let the fresh air in! Dry conditions will prevail into mid week. The coolest night will come tonight/ Wednesday morning with lows in the lower 50s (wouldn’t be surprised by upper 40s away from the city in spots). Gradually moderating temperatures will come for the latter portions of the week, and showers and thunderstorms could pop as humidity surges Friday.
The weekend looks downright hot- especially Saturday. Timing of southwest-moving thunderstorm complexes will be an issue over the weekend, but for now we think Saturday is dry and want to mention the threat of storms Sunday. Stay tuned as we fine tune things.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.50″-0.75″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/06/07/refreshing-feel/
Highlights:
- Scattered PM storms
- Turning much cooler
- Heat builds this weekend
Turning Much Cooler…The sunny start to the work week will give way to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening as a boundary slips through the region. While widespread severe weather isn’t expected, don’t be surprised if a couple storms require warnings later today.
A much cooler air mass will press into central IN tonight and set up a refreshing feel through the middle portions of the work week. We’ll take lows around 50 and highs around 70 any day of the week this time of year!
As we progress into the weekend, the hottest air of the season so far will build in. We expect lower 90s for highs and this hot surge could initially be accompanied by thunderstorms Friday. It’ll be quite oppressive as dew points zoom to around 70.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.25″-0.75″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/06/06/afternoon-storms-ahead-of-a-much-cooler-push-of-air/
Highlights:
- Scattered PM shower/ storm threat through early week
- Cool, sunny mid week
- Heat cranks next weekend
Turning Cooler By Midweek…After a significant rain event (on average 0.75″-1.4″ fell across central IN) Saturday, we’re starting our Sunday morning off with partly-mostly cloudy skies. A much less humid brand of air will build in today, but we can’t completely shake the rain chances. A scattered afternoon shower is possible.
Reinforcing cooler air will move in Monday and the associated boundary will likely do a better job kicking off scattered shower and thunderstorm activity as it moves through the region.
We’ll turn much cooler and refreshing for mid week, along with lots of sunshine and dry conditions. As you’d imagine, the refreshing air doesn’t last long this time of year and a SW flow will help temperatures and moisture levels surge to close the work week. The hottest air of the year so far is slated for next weekend.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- 7-Day Snowfall: 0.00″
- 7-Day Rainfall: 0.25″-0.50″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/06/05/turning-less-humid-today-much-cooler-mid-week/
