Category: 7-Day Outlook
Highlights:
- Wet open to the work week
- Late week backdoor cold front
- Where will Harvey’s remnants track?
More Active Week Of Weather Than We’ve Seen In Some Time…When you factor in upper level energy kicking up showers and embedded thunder early this week, a backdoor cold front Thursday, and potentially dealing with the remnants of Harvey by the weekend, then you have the makings for much more active times than we’ve seen in months. Before we move forward, we must say the weekend forecast is incredibly difficult and confidence is very low at the moment with any one particular scenario concerning Harvey’s remnants. It’ll be important to keep a close eye on the forecast as we progress through the next few days.
Showers this morning are associated with upper level energy tracking east across the Ohio Valley. While additional scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible through Tuesday, there’ll be more dry time than wet. Wednesday will be a day in between storm systems. A backdoor cold front will slip into the state Thursday. A widely scattered thunderstorm is possible as the front moves south followed by a cooler close to the work week.
Looking ahead to the weekend, models continue to suggest Harvey’s remnants will eventually begin to track north, northeast. There will be a limit to the northward extent of Harvey’s moisture before an approaching strong cold front (same one that will deliver the coolest air here since last spring) and associated deep trough “shoves” him east. We’ll take a blend of data at this point and mention showers Saturday and Sunday as moisture from Harvey makes it into the Ohio Valley. With that said, the solutions still range from “dry” to “heavy rain” and we’ll have to fine tune things as we move forward. Stay tuned.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.75″ – 1.25″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/wet-start-to-the-work-week-keeping-a-close-eye-on-harvey/
Highlights:
- Rain and storm chances increase
- Late week cold front
- Gearing up for a bigger blast of fall air
Dry Close To The Weekend…First and foremost, our thoughts and prayers are with Texas as one of the worst flood events in our country’s history is unfolding this morning. With days of heavy rain ahead, an additonal 20″-30″ will fall on eastern Texas. Just horrific.
Here on the home front, we’ll wrap up the weekend on a dry note, but upper level energy will drift overhead late tonight and help generate scattered showers and thunderstorms as early as the predawn hours Monday. We’ll maintain a bit of an unsettled regime into Tuesday before dry conditions return Wednesday.
A backdoor cold front will push through central Indiana Thursday and a broken line of showers and thunderstorms may accompany this frontal passage. A northeasterly flow will usher in an unseasonably cool, early fall-like, close to the work week.
Looking ahead, an even stronger cold front has it’s eyes set on the region late next weekend or early the following week. Strong thunderstorm potential is present with this storm system followed by the coolest air since last spring…
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/rain-returns-late-week-backdoor-cold-front/
Highlights:
- Dry and unseasonably cool close to the week
- Shower chances return
- Watching Harvey
Can’t Ask For Anything Better…Our weather to wrap up the work week will be dominated by cool Canadian high pressure. This will supply plentiful sunshine and unseasonably cool conditions.
A cold front will approach early next week before “washing out” over the Ohio Valley. Shower chances will increase in association with this frontal boundary late Sunday night into early next week. Dry conditions will return by the middle of next week along with slightly cooler than average temperatures.
Tropics: Harvey continues to dominate the headlines and rightfully so. Devastating impacts will be dealt to Texas from a rain, surge, and wind perspective. He will be upgraded to a major hurricane today. It’s still far too early to know how far north Henry will eventually make it late next week before getting absorbed by an approaching trough. Portions of the Ohio Valley are still on the table for potential rain impacts from Harvey late next week. Stay tuned.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.50″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/pleasant-close-to-the-week-harvey-questions/
Highlights:
- Scattered storms with locally heavy rain
- Early fall-like feel arrives
- Dry weather returns
Cold Front Arrives…A cold front is pressing into the state today and generating unsettled weather across the region. Widespread heavy rains fell overnight across northern parts of the state (areas just west of Lafayette have picked up 3″-4″ of rain during the past 24 hours). Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected through early evening before a much drier and cooler air mass arrives tonight behind the frontal passage.
That drier and cooler regime will set the tone for the rest of the week and weekend. High pressure will settle in and provide plentiful sunshine. Additionally, cool, Canadian air will pour south as we progress through the second half of the week. This will result in well below normal temperatures and conditions that will feel more like mid to late September rather than late August.
Tropics: Harvey is likely to stage a comeback over the next few days once he emerges into the southwest Gulf of Mexico. Folks with interests along the Texas coastline should certainly monitor Harvey for tropical implications as the weekend approaches. An interior heavy rain/ flood threat will result, as well.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.75″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/tuesday-storms-then-much-cooler/
Highlights:
- Hot and humid open to the week
- Scattered early week storms
- Much cooler and less humid times loom
Time To Sweat…A hot and increasingly humid airmass will be with us as we open a new week. While most of the upcoming 24-48 hours will remain rain-free, we will mention chances of an isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm Monday. Most will remain free of rain and storms, but those lucky folks who do find themselves under a storm Monday can expect to pick up a quick 1″ of rain. Better overall coverage of showers and thunderstorms will develop late Monday night into Tuesday.
Typically, a pattern change such as what we’ll undergo this week (summer-like to early fall-like) would yield widespread showers and thunderstorms. However, a look at short-term, higher resolution data isn’t particularly “excited” about widespread significant rainfall across central Indiana. We expect a weakening complex of thunderstorms off to our northwest to drift southeast Monday night. Depending on how quickly this complex weakens will determine rainfall amounts, locally. Additionally, it’s very possible this weakening storm complex will serve to limit new thunderstorm development Tuesday as the cold front moves closer. We do note high resolution data places emphasis on northern and southern parts of the state for heaviest rains and it’s tough to disagree with that idea given what we’re looking at right now. Stay tuned.
Regardless of the rain and storm situation, locally, we’ll all turn significantly cooler by midweek. In fact, temperatures will grow cool enough to feel like mid-September. Dry conditions will carry us into next weekend.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.75″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/hot-humid-weather-gives-way-to-much-cooler-times/
