Category: 7-Day Outlook
Highlights:
- Scattered storm chances remain for now
- Drier and much cooler air on deck
- Dry, but hot Labor Day looms
Breath Of Fresh Air Awaits…Once we get through the next (48) hours, a much more pleasant, early fall-like, air mass awaits. Beforehand, we still have plenty of heat and humidity to deal with, along with the all-too-familiar mention of scattered (but heavy) thunderstorms. Thankfully, a cold front will push through the state Wednesday night into Thursday morning and usher in a much cooler and drier air mass to wrap up the work week and head into the long holiday weekend. High pressure will supply a refreshing northeasterly flow Thursday into Friday, supporting breezy conditions and much cooler air. It’ll be the type air mass that will make you take notice fall isn’t that far off, after all.
As we push closer to Labor Day, itself, our air flow will back around to the southwest and assist with a warmer and increasingly moist brand of air for the holiday, into the majority of the Week 2 period…
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.50″-0.75″ (locally heavier totals)
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/08/29/well-earned-break-from-the-heat-humidity-on-deck/
Highlights:
- Scattered weekend storms
- Humid air mass
- Less storm coverage early next week
Air You Can Wear…A very warm, moist, and unstable air mass will remain in place across the region this weekend. While storms will be scattered, the moisture-laden air will help promote locally heavy storms at times. Get used to heat indices in the mid-upper 90s into early next week. Yuck!
Storm coverage will be on the decrease, overall, as we open the new work week. That said, we have to maintain isolated coverage. A weak boundary will slip through central IN the middle of next week and lead to scattered to numerous storms Wednesday.
In the tropics, Invest 99L remains at the forefront. There are many more questions than answers at this time, but if the disturbance (somehow, someway) can make it into the southeastern GOM early next week, conditions will be much more favorable for development.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.75″-1.25″ (locally heavier amounts)
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/08/26/tropical-feel-this-weekend/
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Filed under 7-Day Outlook, Dew points, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, HRRR, Rain, Summer, T-storms, Tropics, Weather Rambles
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August 24, 2016
1.) Humidity is on the rise this morning and scattered showers and thunderstorms will follow late morning into the early afternoon.
2.) HRRR futurecast radar delivers thunderstorms into central IN around the lunchtime hour.
3.) Scattered thunderstorms remain Thursday (some strong to severe), but drier air will briefly push in across the northern half of the region Friday. We think from Indianapolis and points north, it’ll be a very pleasant end to the work week. That said, “briefly” is the key word. Moisture will surge north again Saturday and Sunday and isolated to scattered storms will follow suit.
4.) Attention next week will shift to the tropics. There are many more questions than answers at this point, but understand the potential is there for significant tropical troubles next week. Intensity and track are far from etched in stone, but if your travels take you to the Gulf Coast, we suggest you remain abreast of the latest developments- particularly the southeastern FL coast and the north-central Gulf Coast.
Here on the home front, it’s not entirely out of the equation our region deals with tropical remnants in the Week 2 time period.
Patience is required as we sort through the data in the coming days…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/08/24/wednesday-morning-weather-notebook/
Highlights:
- Dry pattern continues today
- Mid week storms
- Questions abound this weekend
Heat And Humidity Return…High pressure will give way to an approaching cold front as we progress from early to mid week. Ahead of the front, a southwest air flow will transport an increasingly warm and muggy air mass northward. It’ll, unfortunately, feel much more humid Wednesday and Thursday. With the frontal boundary nearby and the increased humidity, expect scattered to numerous thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday (along with locally heavy downpours). A couple strong storms are also possible.
We still think drier air will press into central IN to wrap up the work week and head into the first half of the weekend. That said, moisture returns as early as Sunday and leads to a mention of thunderstorms, especially during the PM. Stay tuned as we continue to fine tune timing.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 1.00″-1.50″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/08/23/its-still-summer-after-all/
Highlights:
- Cooler and mostly sunny
- Dry weather into the early parts of the work week
- Midweek storms
Early Fall Preview…A cold front swept through the state last night and was accompanied by strong storms and heavy rain. The unsettled conditions are now to our east and in return we’re left with a much cooler, drier, and breezy day. With low humidity, temperatures running significantly below normal, and a NW breeze in place, you have our approval to begin shifting thoughts to fall. 🙂
Dry and pleasant air will remain in place through early week before we back the air flow around to the SW. Increasingly muggy conditions will return Wednesday into Thursday and as a cold front interacts with the moist air in place, showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase Wednesday into Thursday. The good news? The front should slide to our south and result in dry and pleasant conditions next weekend.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.50″-0.75″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/08/21/an-early-taste-of-fall/
Highlights:
- AM fog burns off today
- Scattered storms
- Much cooler air coming
Afternoon And Evening Thunder…Morning fog (some dense) will eventually burn off and give way to a muggy day. As afternoon heating takes place, scattered evening thunderstorms are a good bet, especially north of Indianapolis. We’ll repeat this to wrap up the work week Friday.
A cold front will take aim at the region Saturday evening and scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany this boundary as it moves through. A few storms could reach strong to severe levels Saturday PM as the front moves through.
Winds will shift to the NW and usher in a much cooler and drier brand of air for the second half of the weekend, continuing into the early portion of next week. Many will likely be craving fall by early next week coming off multiple mornings with lows in the 50s.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.50″-1.00″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/08/18/scattered-storms-turning-much-cooler/
Highlights:
- Scattered Showers
- Saturday storm chance
- Early fall feel on deck
Drier Overall…It’s been a wet few days across the region. While we’ll begin to transition towards a drier regime to wrap up the work week, scattered showers and storms will remain in the forecast today and Thursday. Best concentration of storms will be located across north-central IN this evening. Rain/ storm coverage will be even less on Thursday.
Our next item of interest will arrive on the scene in the form of a cold front Saturday. Showers and a couple gusty thunderstorms are a good bet Saturday afternoon/ evening as the cold front sweeps through the state. Our winds will then shift to the northwest and help usher in a much cooler, drier time of things for the second half of the weekend. Stepping outside Sunday morning will provide a definite hint of fall, complete with a breezy NW wind.
Early next week will continue to feature dry and unseasonably cool times before we turn our attention to what could potentially be a heavy rain maker setting up just past the 7-day period…
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.50″-0.75″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/08/17/early-fall-feel-coming/
Highlights:
- Periods of rain
- Increasing sunshine as we push into late week
- Weekend cold front
Keep The Rain Gear Handy…Whew, after an incredibly busy evening, things will be much quieter today. Despite not having a severe threat, we will have to deal with wet times as periods of rain continue. Rain coverage will diminish Wednesday, but we’ll keep scattered showers in the forecast.
Drier air will arrive Thursday and Friday, including a partly cloudy sky. The next weather item on the horizon is a weekend cold front. This frontal boundary will help increase storm chances Saturday into early Sunday (a few storms Saturday evening could be on the strong side). MUCH cooler, early fall-like, air awaits next week…
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.75″-1.25″
Here are a few photos I shot Monday evening (8.15.16), between 6:47p-6:55p, just after the tornado touched down in Whitestown.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/08/16/another-wet-day/
Highlights:
- Periods of heavy rain
- Drying out come mid week
- Cold front arrives next weekend
Flooding Concerns…Renewed heavy rain is pushing through central IN as we write up the morning forecast package. This conveyor belt of moisture will continue to lift northeast and eventually break up and diminish during the late morning and early afternoon. Despite scattered showers this afternoon, drier times will ensue, overall. Unfortunately, this drier period won’t last long as another slug of moisture lifts north late tonight and continues Monday. Additional heavy rainfall can be expected, including the potential of rainfall rates approaching 2″+/ hour. Given the water-logged soils across the region, concerns of flash flooding are very high Monday.
Eventually, we’ll dry things out come mid week and introduce more sunshine back into the forecast. Our next item on the agenda will be a cold front that will sweep through the state Saturday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the boundary as it moves through the region before much drier and cooler air blows in for the second half of the weekend. In fact, a welcomed early fall preview awaits come Sunday. Thoughts of football, pumpkin “everything,” bonfires, and apple cider will be prevalent this time next week…
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 2″-4″ (locally heavier totals)
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/08/14/heavy-rain-continues-early-fall-preview-late-next-weekend/
Highlights:
- Tropical feel
- Heavy weekend rains
- Unsettled early next week
Zoning In On Heaviest Rains…It’s about as humid as it can get across central IN. “Air you can wear” is the appropriate way to describe this humidity and overall sultry feel. As we’d expect with this tropical air mass, isolated to widely scattered strong storms could pop at any point and result in locally heavy rain. We’ll “rinse and repeat” today’s forecast to wrap up the work week.
Attention then shifts to a widespread soaking rain event this weekend as two main players “team up” to produce a localized flood threat. A cold front will sag into central IN while remnant tropical moisture slowly moves north and eventually curls northeast. Precisely where the front stalls in response to the tropical low moving north will be where heaviest (4″+) rains set up. Thinking this morning places the greatest risk somewhere between Indianapolis and Louisville, but we caution that we still want to see a couple more model runs before settling on a given area. Unsettled weather will likely continue into early next week as tropical moisture slowly exits stage right.
Longer term, indications point towards an overall cooler, wetter, back half of August. Times- they are ‘a changing!
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 2.00″-4.00″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/08/11/a-wet-weekend-in-store/
