Category: 7-Day Outlook

Oct 18

Much Cooler Times Await On Deck…

screen-shot-2016-10-18-at-6-53-22-pmHighlights:

  • Wet weather moves in from south to north Wednesday PM
  • Raw Thursday
  • Much cooler, fall weather this weekend

Find The Rain Gear…Most of Wednesday will feature dry conditions with lots of sunshine to start, but clouds will be on the increase and rain will follow.  We expect rain coverage to increase from south to north as evening gives way to nighttime.  This is all in association with a surface low developing along a stationary boundary to our south.  This area of low pressure will track along the Ohio River (Thursday) to the interior northeast (Friday).  (Indiana snow enthusiasts know that’s a perfect track for the snowy “goods” if only it was a month, or so, later). We will continue to dream… 🙂

Back to regularly scheduled programming…

Rain will grow in coverage and intensity Wednesday night into early Thursday morning and periods of rain will be with us through the day Thursday.  Heaviest rains should fall through the southern half of the state (where localized 2″+ totals are possible).  The other weather element we’ll have to deal with Thursday is an increasingly chilly and raw northeast wind shifting to the north late.  Temperatures will remain steady and slowly fall by evening.

As the area of low pressure pulls off to the northeast, it’ll help drive the coolest air of the season southward.  Patchy frost is possible for outlying areas Saturday morning.  Fall foliage should be looking “really nice” this weekend across central IN.

Dry, but breezy, conditions will be with us early next week, but we’re eyeing our next storm system by the middle to latter portions of the week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 1.00″ – 1.50″ (locally heavier amounts southeast)

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/10/18/much-cooler-times-await-on-deck/

Oct 17

Warm Winds Give Way To Rain And Cooler Air…

screen-shot-2016-10-17-at-7-34-57-amHighlights:

  • Warm SW winds
  • Cooler air arrives mid week with rain
  • Much cooler to close the week

A Little Something For Everyone…The big story over the next 24-48 hours will be unseasonably warm temperatures, but equally as impressive, strong and gusty winds (30-40MPH).  Enjoy the extended period of shorts and short sleeves, but please note a “big hair warning” is in effect through Tuesday night.  🙂

A cold front will slip through the state Wednesday (from north to south) and could spark a scattered shower as it drifts south.  Eventually the front will stall along the KY border.  This is in response to an area of low pressure developing to our southwest.  The surface low will lift northeast and help spread widespread soaking rain across the state Thursday.  Additionally, we’ll note a much cooler air mass and winds that will shift around to the north in the PM, helping drive a much cooler close to the week.  Moderate to locally heavy rainfall can be expected Thursday.

As we get set to put a wrap on the week, we’ll get back to weather we’d expect for this time of year: dry, cool, and crisp!  In fact, patchy frost is possible Saturday morning across outlying areas away from the city.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 1.00″ – 1.50″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/10/17/warm-winds-give-way-to-rain-and-cooler-air/

Oct 15

From Summer To Fall…

screen-shot-2016-10-15-at-9-03-37-amHighlights:

  • Stretch of unseasonably warm, summer-like weather
  • Turning much cooler late in the period
  • Unsettled to close the work week

Near Record Warmth Gives Way To A Cooler Feel…We have to deal with low clouds and areas of fog this morning, but expect enough wind to mix things out and return us to a variably cloudy sky this afternoon.  Significantly warmer conditions are on tap today than what we’ve dealt with over the past couple days.  Winds will become gusty this afternoon (20-30 MPH).

Scattered showers will drop south Sunday.  These will impact mostly northern locations (north of I-70) and won’t be a big deal.

Monday and Tuesday will feature strong and gusty southwest winds (30-40 MPH), dry conditions, and near record warmth.  Highs in the lower 80s for mid October is downright impressive, but the warm overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s is almost unheard of for this time of year.  Enjoy the stretch of extended summer.

Our weather pattern will offer up an increasingly chilly regime late week and the overall evolution of a storm system is still up in the air in regards to rain timing and amounts.  For now we’re leaning towards a wet, chilly, and blustery forecast Thursday and Friday.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 1.50″ – 2.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/10/15/from-summer-to-fall/

Oct 14

Warm & Windy This Weekend; Changeable Weather Next Week…

Central Indiana will enjoy a nice open to the weekend. High pressure will scoot off to the east and allow a warmer, but blustery return southwesterly flow. Though we’ll be warmer tomorrow, winds will increase and gust to 30-40 MPH late in the day. Highs will top out in the middle to upper 70s.

Sunday will feature an increase in cloudiness, but most shower activity should remain across northern and north-central parts of the state. Even in areas that receive rain Sunday, amounts will be light and insignificant. Here’s a look at what the radar may look like Sunday afternoon. It’ll be another unseasonably warm day as highs top out between 75°-80°, despite the increase in cloud cover.


Speaking of warmth, that will be the major story for early and middle parts of the work week. Highs around 80° and warm overnight lows in the 60s (where our average high should be) can be expected with dry, but windy, conditions in play. Extended summer, anyone?!


Changes are brewing for the latter portion of the week and that will require most of our attention over the weekend as far as sifting through the various details. While confidence is high in a transition to drastically cooler conditions, the evolution of specifics concerning rain chances results in a much lower level of confidence. As it stands now, we’ll increase rain chances for the late week period (late Wednesday into Thursday), but the duration of wet weather is up in the air. The GEFS (below) shows the wetter pattern returning.


Note the various ensemble solutions (above) of how the upper air pattern may look in the 8-10 day period. Solutions range from a drier and downright chilly look (European) to one that’s cooler, but still unsettled (GFS, GEM). Time is required to continue to fine tune things.

All of that said, as previously mentioned, we’re much more confident in the cooler look to close October. The GEFS sees that, as well.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/10/14/warm-changeable-weather-next-week/

Oct 14

VIDEO: Windy Warm-Up Arrives This Weekend; Complex Pattern Next Week…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/10/14/video-windy-warm-up-arrives-this-weekend-complex-pattern-next-week/

Oct 13

VIDEO: An Active Autumn Pattern Is Here…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/10/13/video-an-active-autumn-pattern-is-here/

Oct 11

Wednesday Night Storms Before A Much Cooler Push Of Air…

screen-shot-2016-10-11-at-7-29-43-amHighlights:

  • Shower and storm chances increase Wednesday night
  • Coolest air so far this season to close the work week
  • Warm push of air early next week

Nice Today Before Wednesday Night Storms…Mid and high level cloudiness will continue to scoot through the Ohio Valley today. While we noted a few sprinkles during the predawn hours, the air remains dry and we should be rain-free today with increasing PM sunshine.

Wednesday will turn increasingly breezy as the day progresses and a cold front will help kick up scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night into the early morning hours Thursday.  Behind the front, the coolest air so far this season will press southeast and set us up for a chilly close to the week.

The cool air won’t stay around long as we flip our air flow back to the south over the weekend.  Showers are a good bet Sunday followed by a gusty south wind and a summer-like high in the lower 80s Monday.

A couple of notes:  It’s beginning to be that time of year again when we have to get used to the wind.  As the jet continues to mature, storm systems will become more frequent as we go deeper into fall.  Strong winds are a given and the increasingly busy nature of the pattern is a signal of changes brewing.  While we’re still a couple weeks away from a wholesale pattern change, don’t be surprised if we undergo a rather dramatic flip in the pattern as October gives way to November.  This sure doesn’t look like last year in any way, and, in fact, it’s easy to argue it’s the exact opposite when it comes to early season cold and potentially wintry weather…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 0.75″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/10/11/wednesday-night-storms-before-a-much-cooler-push-of-air/

Oct 09

Mid Week Cold Front…

screen-shot-2016-10-09-at-9-22-00-amHighlights:

  • Dry and cool fall weather remains
  • Mid week front delivers showers and cooler air
  • Warm pattern develops next weekend

Classic Autumn Weather…Today will be just about as nice of a mid-October day that we could ask for around these parts.  High pressure will supply mostly sunny skies and pleasantly cool air.

Dry weather will remain through early in the work week, along with slowly moderating temperatures as our air flow shifts to a SW direction.  This will allow enough moisture return for a cold front to help spark showers Wednesday evening.

As that front sweeps through the region, reinforcing cool air will ooze back into the state.  A weak disturbance will scoot south of our region Friday, but will likely be close enough to create a mostly cloudy close to the work week, along with scattered showers.  Moderating temperatures return next weekend.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.50″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/10/09/mid-week-cold-front/

Oct 08

Stretch Of Fall Weather…

screen-shot-2016-10-08-at-8-03-12-amHighlights:

  • Much cooler weekend
  • Dry conditions continue
  • Next cold front arrives mid week

Classic Fall Weather…High pressure is building in to supply a dry and pleasantly cool weekend. Average temperatures this time of year include highs in the upper 60s with lows in the upper 40s.  We’ll run a few degrees below those norms. this weekend with mostly sunny skies in place.  Bon fire, pumpkin patch, or corn maze, anyone?  Perhaps all of the above?!

Dry conditions will remain early next week with slowly moderating temperatures.

Our next item on the agenda is a cold front approaching by the middle of the week.  This front will slide through with showers Wednesday evening into early Thursday followed by resurgent cool air as we wrap up the work week.  Rainfall amounts don’t look impressive, but moisture return will be better than yesterday’s cold front.  We’ll label the rain coverage as “scattered” for now.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.10″ – 0.20″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/10/08/stretch-of-fall-weather/

Oct 05

Not Impressed With Rain Coverage; Much Cooler Weekend…

screen-shot-2016-10-05-at-5-57-22-pmHighlights:

  • Unseasonably warm weather continues for now
  • Much cooler weekend ahead
  • Unimpressed with rain coverage

Feeling More Like It Should By The Weekend…A SW air flow will continue to pump unseasonably warm air into the Mid West as we go through the back half of the work week.  Dry conditions will remain before a cold front serves up a widely scattered shower chance Friday afternoon.  That cold front will sweep through the state Friday evening and much cooler air will spill into the region.  Despite some low clouds and areas of fog Saturday morning, the weekend should feature lots of sunshine along with cool, crisp air.  It’ll be a classic fall weekend in central IN.  Make plans for a bonfire or to visit one of the many popular corn mazes throughout the region.

As we rumble into early next week, high pressure and pleasant weather conditions will remain.

In the tropics, Hurricane Matthew continues to be the headline.  Our thoughts and prayers are with the Bahamas tonight as Matthew roars through.  Tomorrow night and Friday will then feature Matthew coming dangerously close to the east coast of FL.  Landfall or not, those living along the east coast of FL should brace for a long duration and damaging erosion event, along with hurricane conditions.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.10″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/10/05/not-impressed-with-rain-coverage-much-cooler-weekend/

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