Category: 7-Day Outlook

Dec 20

Mild Air On Borrowed Time; Turning Wintry…

Highlights:

  • Dry midweek
  • Rain changes to snow
  • Turning bitter

Changes Await…The midweek stretch will feature dry and unseasonably mild conditions.  A storm system will deluge the Tennessee Valley today, but will be too far south to impact our weather.  We’ll shift our air flow around from the northeast today to more of a southerly direction Thursday afternoon.  This is in advance of our next storm system that will deliver showers as we wrap up the last work week before Christmas.

While confidence is beginning to increase in the evolution of things as we head into Christmas weekend, important details are still a bit “iffy” and will require additional fine tuning over the next day, or so.  With that disclaimer, here’s how we see things playing out:

A cold front will slip southeast Friday night and a surface low will move northeast along the boundary Saturday.  The general consensus this morning is that this wave of low pressure will track further southeast when compared to yesterday’s data.  This would yield a colder solution, locally, and subsequent faster changeover to a period of wet snow Saturday.  In fact, if trends continue, we may have to bust out the first snowfall map of the season for Saturday.  Hope for a White Christmas is very much alive and kicking.

MUCH colder air will drill southeast Christmas Eve and with enough upper level energy in place, we forecast an additional period of snow and snow showers Christmas Eve.  Bitterly cold temperatures will take control for Christmas and into early next week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 1″ – 2″
  • Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.50″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/mild-air-on-borrowed-time-turning-wintry/

Dec 19

Mild Now, But The Deep Freeze Awaits; Christmas Snow?

Highlights:

  • Unseasonably mild for now
  • Dry midweek
  • Turning colder and wintry as Christmas approaches

Bottle It Up…By this time next week, most will want to go back in time to the unseasonably pleasant December weather we’re currently experiencing.  If you’re one of these individuals, it’s too bad you just can’t bottle it up for the frigid times that loom.

The short-term period will continue to be dominated by relatively quiet conditions given the time of year.  A storm system will pass to our south Wednesday and provide the Tennessee Valley a good soaking.  We’ll turn cooler for midweek, but remain well above seasonal averages.

A cold front will move towards the region as we wrap up the work week.  This will deliver showers Friday into Saturday before colder air results in a potential transition to wet snow Saturday.  Thereafter, details remain sketchy (at best), but overall confidence is increasing in at least some snow falling during the Christmas Eve – Christmas morning period.

Models are struggling with a second piece of energy that will blow through prior to the big cold blast next week.  Typical model biases are showing themselves this morning (more progressive GFS versus the more amplified European and Canadian).  The best idea at this point is to go with a blend and trend towards a period of snow developing during the afternoon and evening on Christmas Eve, but please understand we’ll have to fine tune things over the next few days.  The other item to consider is that it won’t take much upper energy at all to ring out any available moisture as the arctic intrusion arrives.

Regardless of whether we enjoy Christmas snow or not, the period next week into early parts of 2018 looks particularly cold (at times bitterly so) with additional winter weather opportunities.  Snow removal companies might want to begin stocking up on the coffee!

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 1″
  • Rainfall:  0.50″ – 0.75″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/mild-now-but-the-deep-freeze-awaits-christmas-snow/

Dec 17

Mild And Relatively Quiet Week Before Cold Changes For Christmas…

Highlights:

  • Light showers later today
  • Mostly quiet weather week awaits
  • Much colder as Christmas nears

Sunday Showers…A weak weather system is approaching the state as we type this forecast update.  That system will deliver light showers through the afternoon hours, but this won’t be a major weather event by any stretch of the imagination- more of a nuisance than anything.

Our next “event” will come Tuesday night in the form of a dry frontal passage.  This will trend us cooler Wednesday, but still above seasonal norms.  Quiet times will persist with sunshine through midweek, allowing last minute shoppers (no finger pointing here :-)) to at least not have any weather worries as they finish checking off the list!

A more significant cold front will approach as we close the work week.  This will provide showers and gusty winds, followed by a colder feel late in the day.

Looking ahead towards Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, confidence continues to remain high on a much colder pattern taking hold.  However, it’s purely speculative at this point whether we’ll be enjoying “white” for the big day.  Stay tuned.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.20″ – 0.40″

 

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/mild-and-relatively-quiet-week-before-cold-changes-for-christmas/

Dec 15

Unseasonably Pleasant Open To The Weekend…

Highlights:

  • “Can’t beat it” weather for mid-December
  • Raw second half of the weekend
  • Changes loom

Great Open To The Weekend…High pressure and a relatively mild southwest flow will help boost temperatures to near 50° Saturday afternoon, complete with plentiful sunshine.  We will note an increasingly gusty southwest breeze late in the day.

The second half of the weekend will feature an increasingly wet period, along with a “raw” feel.  Rainfall amounts won’t be particularly impressive, but rain gear will be required on the way out to church Sunday morning.

High pressure will quickly build back in thereafter and remain in control of our work week weather.  A nice stretch of pleasant conditions (by mid-December standards) will prevail, including plentiful sunshine.  Enjoy it as big changes loom.

The all-important Christmas-New Years period is growing ever closer and data continues to suggest we should gear up for busy times in the forecast office.  An active pattern looms, including one that will trend progressively colder.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.10″ – 0.25″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/unseasonably-pleasant-open-to-the-weekend/

Dec 13

Weekend Moderation…

Highlights:

  • Northern IN snow
  • Weekend moderation
  • Showers early next week

Majority Of Snow To Our North, Northeast…A fast moving northwest flow will continue to zip upper air disturbances across the Plains into the Great Lakes and northeast.  As has been the case for the past week, central IN will remain too far south to benefit in the snow department from these systems.  A light shower is possible this afternoon with gusty winds followed by a couple of light snow showers this evening as the cold returns.  If your travels take you to north-central IN or into Ohio, you’ll be more likely to encounter slick roads.

A skinny lake effect snow band may set up shop overnight into early Thursday.  Unlike the past event, this would favor west-central parts of the state.

We’ll wrap up the work week on a mostly dry note and that theme will continue as we open the weekend.  A milder southwest push of air will send temperatures to slightly above average levels this weekend and we’ll introduce showers into our forecast early next week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: Dusting
  • Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.40″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/weekend-moderation/