Category: 7-Day Outlook
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Filed under 7-Day Outlook, Arctic Cold, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Rain, Spring, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Weather Rambles, Windy
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February 3, 2017
1.) A cold close to the work week can be expected with highs today only topping out in the upper 20s (average highs are in the upper 30s).
2.) What at one time looked to be a significant weekend storm now may not even deliver any precipitation at all to the region. A flurry is possible, but most should remain precipitation-free this weekend. Expect a gusty southwest wind developing SB Sunday. Highs around freezing Saturday will zoom into the middle 40s Sunday. Lows Saturday morning in the middle 10s will rise into the upper 20s to around 30 Sunday morning.
3.) A more significant storm system will cut for the Great Lakes early next week and this will deliver gusty showers and embedded thunderstorms. A couple of stronger storms aren’t out of the question. Locally heavy rains can be expected, including amounts of 1″-1.5″ (locally heavier totals).
4.) Cold air will rush back into the region behind the storm and snow showers and squalls are likely by Wednesday.
5.) Longer-term, a real fight is developing on the overall direction we’re heading as February evolves. Analog methods and teleconnections (shown below) would yield bullish cold signals and give hope to winter enthusiasts. However, modeling isn’t in agreement on the wintry ideas. In fact, some modeling is very spring-like as mid-Feb nears. Stay tuned as we try and iron out the details this weekend. Updates will come.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/02/03/friday-morning-rambles-looking-ahead/
Highlights:
- Windy Tuesday
- Scattered flurries; snow showers tonight-Wednesday AM
- Accumulating weekend snow?
Bumpy Ride…Wind will be the big weather item today as a clipper low passes to our north. Gusty west breezes will reach 30 MPH at times. Otherwise, it’ll be a mild day as highs reach the lower 40s. Cooler air will arrive tonight and will promote the chance of a passing flurry or scattered snow shower into Wednesday morning.
We’ll close the week with cold and dry conditions, including highs below freezing both Thursday and Friday.
As we move into the upcoming weekend, a storm system will attack the lingering cold air and this will allow for a period of snow to develop Saturday night into Sunday morning. We still have time to monitor this event, but as of now this appears to be a relatively weak, flatter wave and “light” is the key word to describe the snow intensity Saturday night into Sunday morning.
Models want to drive a more significant storm system to our northwest early next week. What’s new this winter? A windy warm-up would result, including heavier rains late Monday into Tuesday.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 1″ – 2″
- Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.50″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/01/31/hold-on-to-your-hat-accumulating-weekend-snow/
1.) Our fast-moving NW flow continues today. Snow showers and localized heavier squalls will increase later this afternoon and evening as another upper level disturbance moves through. This won’t be a “uniform” event, but if driving please plan on rapidly reduced visibilities within the heavier squalls.
2.) Overall, the upcoming week looks chilly, but relatively dry. Fast-moving disturbances can be a pain for modeling and “last minute” corrections can take place, but consistency on the next storm system tracking north of the region Monday evening and Tuesday morning continues. We’ll note a gusty wind during this time frame (30-40 MPH gusts), but don’t foresee significant precipitation across central parts of the state.
3.) There’s the chance for snow showers midweek, but our attention will shift to the prospects of a “more meaningful” event next weekend. With this being a storm we’re watching for the day 7 period, confidence is low and specifics vary greatly. Stay tuned this week as we fine tune the details. Just know from this distance, an accumulating event is possible.
4.) The last couple of weeks has featured an impressive January “thaw.” We note the blow torch regime of the past week across the central and east below.
See the shift back to winter, especially across the northern tier as we close January and flip the calendar into February.
The GEFS is bullish on the cold growing stronger as we progress through the first half of February.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/01/29/sunday-morning-rambles-4/
Highlights:
- Wintry weekend
- More widespread snow Sunday
- Reinforcing cold next week
Scattered Snow Showers Turns To Steadier Snow Sunday…Upper level energy will continue to track across the region this weekend, setting off periods of snow showers and embedded heavier squalls (case in point this evening). The strongest upper level energy will pass Sunday evening and the result should be a period of more widespread snow Sunday- especially in the afternoon and evening. A light accumulation (1″-2″ potential) is possible.
The new work week will begin with early flurries Monday and then we’ll kick in a strong and gusty southwest wind Monday night, continuing into Tuesday. We’ll turn milder briefly Tuesday, but strong winds will remain. We’ll continue to monitor the Tuesday night-Wednesday morning period as some modeling wants to deliver a round of light snow with the reinforcing chill. We’ll give it another round of model runs, but we may need to hit snow a little harder in the Tuesday night period.
Another disturbance will race through the region Thursday with snow showers and then we’ll eye the potential of a stronger system next weekend…
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 1″ – 3″
- Rainfall: 0.00″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/01/27/wintry-weekend-accumulating-snow-sunday/
Highlights:
- Prolonged period of scattered snow showers
- Much colder and windy
- Winter returns
Scattered Snow Showers; Steadier Snow Sunday? Let’s cut right to the point: The January “thaw” is over. Yes, it was nice while it lasted, but we all knew it couldn’t continue (right?)! 😉
A much colder brand of air will be with us as we close the work week and head into the weekend. Additionally, upper level energy will keep periods of snow showers in our forecast. A more vigorous piece of upper level energy will push southeast to close the weekend and this should create more widespread snow showers. We’ll “enjoy” a colder and blustery weekend.
As the dawn of a new work week arrives, the weather will slowly improve. Colder than normal conditions will remain, but we’ll return to dry conditions Monday.
Our next system will pass Tuesday with gusty winds and colder air for mid week, complete with a return of snow showers.
Looking for potential of “more significant” snow? That may loom just past the current forecast period…
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 1″ – 2″
- Rainfall: 0.00″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/01/25/snow-returns-to-the-forecast/
Highlights:
- Hold on to your hats
- Cold air returns
- Extended period of scattered snow showers; squall potential
Changes Brewing…Wednesday will feature more of the same mild weather we’ve come to know and enjoy across the Mid West over the past couple of weeks. Despite the mild air, a storm system will result in scattered showers for our hump day, along with very windy conditions. Gusts of 40 MPH will be common across central IN.
Temperatures will fall late Wednesday and Old Man Winter is set to make up for lost time as we progress through the back half of the work week and on into the weekend. In addition, fast-moving upper level energy will push southeast in the active northwest flow aloft. Scattered snow showers will result, along with localized embedded heavier squalls. It certainly won’t snow the entire time, but passing snow showers will be a good bet from time to time Thursday through Sunday.
Our wintry pattern will relax briefly early next week, but renewed cold air appears poised to blow into town the middle of next week.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: Dusting – 1″ (local 2″ amounts possible)
- Rainfall: 0.10″ – 0.25″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/01/24/one-more-mild-day-old-man-winter-is-knocking-on-the-door/
Highlights:
- Dense fog this morning
- Turning much colder this week
- Scattered snow showers late week
Low Beams On…Dense fog engulfs most of central IN this morning. Make sure you have the low beams on this morning as you head off to work and school and allow extra time. A shower is possible at any point today, but particularly across the eastern half of the state.
Our next storm system will push through mid week. Southwest winds will increase Wednesday and scattered showers will accompany a cold front moving through the state. Temperatures will fall Wednesday night into Thursday and scattered snow showers will develop.
The theme late in the week and for the weekend will be a wintry one. Upper level energy will interact with the colder conditions and result in scattered snow showers from time to time into the weekend. The active northwest flow will remain into next week, as well, and we’ll have to keep a close eye for the prospects of a more “robust” clipper impacting the region just beyond this forecast period.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: Dusting – 1″
- Rainfall: 0.10″ – 0.25″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/01/23/foggy-start-winter-returns/
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Filed under 7-Day Outlook, Forecast, Forecast Models, January Thaw, Rain, snow, Spring, T-storms, Unseasonably Warm, Windy
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January 21, 2017
Highlights:
- Spring-like weekend
- Unsettled times continue
- Winter returns
Rare January White Leg Alert…The big news this weekend will be temperatures close to 30 degrees above normal and a legitimate spring feel. Average highs across central IN this time of year are in the middle 30s and temperatures this afternoon will zoom to the lower-middle 60s. Patchy morning fog and drizzle will be with us, but we’re remaining optimistic we could squeeze a couple of looks at the sun during the day. Count yourself lucky if you do, indeed, see that weird giant bright thing in the sky! 😉
A developing storm system will track east across the central Plains and into the TN Valley this weekend. This will result in a significant severe weather outbreak across the south and increasing rain chances here for the back half of the weekend. The magnitude of the rain and potential embedded storms remains in question, but shower chances will at least be on the increase Sunday afternoon into the evening. We note short-term, higher resolution modeling hitting the locally heavy rain threat harder than global data early this morning (centered on Sunday evening) and we’ll keep a close eye on things as most central IN communities remain waterlogged. Winds will increase Monday- NE shifting to the N and gusts to 40 MPH with leftover showers continuing.
Tuesday will present a bit of a break in our active pattern before a fast-moving cold front blows into town Wednesday with scattered showers amidst blustery conditions.
We turn colder (you knew this incredibly mild pattern had to break at some point) late week and upper level energy will help ignite snow showers with the return of the wintry feel Thursday into Friday.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: Dusting – 1″
- Rainfall: 0.50″ – 0.75″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/01/21/spring-like-weekend-but-changes-loom/
Highlights:
- Unseasonably warm week
- Multiple rounds of rain and embedded thunderstorms
- Eyeing winter’s return next week
Have The Rain Gear Handy…While we’ll enjoy unseasonably mild temperatures, the wet and unsettled theme we’ve been dealing with as of late we’ll continue this week.
Most of the daytime today will feature more dry time than wet with just scattered showers expected before more widespread rain and embedded thunderstorms arrive by nightfall. Wet and periodically stormy times continue tonight into the early morning hours Tuesday. After a predawn high in the mid 50s, temperatures will slowly fall during the day Tuesday before remaining steady in the middle to upper 40s for the balance of the afternoon.
We may get a brief (rare) look at the sun Wednesday as we’ll be in between weather systems, but have no fear, as our next storm will be developing to our south and arrive with showers Thursday. 🙂 Rain and perhaps a thunderstorm continue Friday, especially through the first half of the day.
The majority of Saturday will feature dry and warm (early spring-like) conditions, but clouds will increase during the second half of the day and showers will push north into the state at night. Windy, wet conditions continue Sunday.
Longer-term, forecast models continue to paint a significantly colder, wintry pattern as we go through the last week of the month.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 1.50″ – 2.00″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/01/16/warm-but-unsettled-week/
1.) January, month-to-date, is running slightly above normal at IND (+1.2 F) and nearly 1″ above normal in the precipitation department. Keeping true to the winter, overall, greatest cold departures are centered over the northern Plains and northern Rockies.
2.) Showers will creep north overnight into Monday morning, but shouldn’t amount to much. They will be scattered in nature across central Indiana.
3.) More widespread rain and embedded thunder will develop Monday night into Tuesday morning. This should amount of widespread half inch to one inch totals across the viewing area.
4.) A moist southwest flow will help push a warmer regime northward for the second half of the week. Though warm, we’ll also have to deal with periods of rain as disturbances track northeast. We circle Friday and Sunday as the wettest days and remain optimistic Saturday will feature dry and unseasonably warm conditions (lower-middle 60s). Between the rainy days Friday and Sunday, additional rainfall totals of 1″-2″ seem like a good bet.
5.) The evolution of the pattern just beyond the 7-day period we’ll begin to take on an increasingly wintry look and we remain confident on a flip back to wintry conditions as we roll through the last week of the month. We’ll have to keep a close eye on a storm system in the 8-10 day period. It’s obviously way too early to discuss specifics, but this will be the time the pattern is beginning to turn back towards a wintry regime…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/01/15/sunday-afternoon-rambles-2/
