Category Archives: 7-Day Outlook

Week Ahead: Cold Open Gives Way To Warmer Air In Time For St. Patrick’s Day…

A storm system will gather strength to our south as we progress through the day and into the night.  While central Indiana won’t experience significant impacts from this storm, we’ll indirectly deal with this system with considerable cloudiness and a chilly easterly breeze today.

Our friends to our south (KY and the higher elevations of the southern Appalachians) can expect accumulating snow.  The east TN and western NC mountains will accumulate over 6″ above 5,000 feet late tonight through Monday morning.

The region will be under the grips of a cold northerly flow through the first half of the work week.  Embedded within that air flow will be a couple of upper level disturbances that will drop into the Ohio Valley.  These impulses of energy will help kick off snow showers and localized heavier squalls at times Monday through Wednesday.  Some localized accumulations of a dusting to 1″ will be possible.

High pressure will gain control of our weather Thursday and this will include the start of a nice moderating trend for the second half of the week, including the St. Patrick’s Day weekend.  With full sunshine Thursday, along with WAA (warm air advection) kicking in, we think highs will top out much warmer than the majority of current guidance suggests.  We’ll go with widespread mid to upper 50s Thursday.

Unfortunately, we’ll add more clouds and showers next weekend.  Wet weather will build in Friday and we can’t rule out shower chances Saturday, as well.  Temperatures will warm well into the 60s by St. Patrick’s Day!

In general, we expect 0.25″ to 0.50″ across central IN with showers in the Friday-Saturday time period.

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Near Record Warmth & More Heavy Rain…

The big weather story Tuesday across central Indiana will be the near-record warmth.  Typically it’s not until mid-May that average high temperatures climb into the lower to middle 70s, but we’re going to get an early taste of May tomorrow afternoon. Several records are in jeopardy of falling across the Ohio Valley Tuesday.

Steadiest rains will fall across the northern third of the state Tuesday with scattered downpours through the morning and afternoon hours across central Indiana.

Forecast radar 12p Tuesday.

Heavier rain will overspread central Indiana late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as the cold front settles south.

Forecast radar 4a Wednesday.

As the front continues to sink south, much colder air will quickly overspread the area.  By the rush hour, many neighborhoods north of Indianapolis will already be around freezing.  As moisture continues to stream northeast, areas of freezing rain will be possible on elevated and exposed surfaces Wednesday morning into the afternoon hours.  With the recent warm, wet conditions, we don’t expect significant travel issues across central Indiana.

After a quieter time of things most of Thursday, we’re tracking three additional waves of moisture Friday and through the weekend.  At times, rain will be heavy, and we’ll certainly have to be on guard for water rise and increasing flooding issues as the weekend arrives.

By the time all is set and done Monday morning, we forecast additional widespread 3.5″ to 5″ rainfall totals with locally heavier amounts.

 

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Sunny, Cold Open To The Work Week Gives Way To Wet Conditions Midweek…

We’re opening the new work week on a cold, but sunny note!  While temperatures will remain well below average today, a moderating trend does begin and will eventually take us close to 60° Thursday!

High pressure will keep us dry today and Tuesday. Look for highs in the upper 30s today, lows falling into the lower 20s tonight, and highs topping out in the mid 40s on Tuesday.

High pressure will provide a sunny open to the work week!

We’ll notice clouds on the increase Valentine’s Day and showers will arrive as early as the afternoon and evening hours.  Coverage of rain initially will be greatest across southern and southeastern Indiana.

Rain returns Wednesday.

Surface low pressure will then track into the Ohio Valley Thursday and help lead to more widespread soaking rains as a cold front presses southeast.  Eventually this front will deliver a colder close to the work week, but not before we squeeze out 0.50″ to 1″ of rain.  Despite the wet conditions, Wednesday and Thursday will feature well above average temperatures: low 50s Wednesday and close to 60° Thursday.

Soaking rains are expected Thursday.

We’ll turn briefly colder Friday (nothing terrible for this time of year) before a new warmup takes place over the weekend.  With that new moderating trend, moisture will return and make way for a gloomy Sunday, complete with overcast skies and showers returning.

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Overall Mild Pattern Not Without Challenges…

I. Areas of light snow and freezing drizzle will continue into the overnight hours and on into Wednesday morning. Watch for slick spots overnight-Wednesday morning.

II. Clouds will finally begin to erode Wednesday night and set us up for plentiful sunshine Thursday.  Along with the increasing sunshine, a southwesterly air flow will develop and assist with providing a new “warming” trend as we close the work week.  Mid-40s are ahead Thursday and lower-50s Friday.  A “big hair warning” is officially in effect Friday as winds gust between 30-40 MPH Friday. 🙂

III. Our next storm system arrives on the scene overnight Friday into Saturday with light rain.

IV. We’re also monitoring the possibility of a “sneaky” snow maker Sunday night into Monday in a fast northwest flow.  Light snow will impact portions of the Ohio Valley, but we’ll have to fine tune things over the next few days with respect to specific track and placement of the swath of accumulating snow.  Stay tuned!

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