Category: 7-Day Outlook

Mar 20

Bumpy Start To The Work Week…

Highlights:

  • Stormy open to the work week
  • Colder midweek
  • Storms return this weekend

Couple Rounds Of Storms Possible Today…Radar this morning is showing widespread showers and thunderstorms sinking south out of northern Indiana.  Expect to get wet in, and around, the city as the rush hour gets into full swing.  We’ll monitor this evening for the potential of another round of thunderstorms that’ll, once again, originate across northern IN before tracking southeast.  We don’t anticipate widespread severe weather with these rounds of storms, but small hail is certainly possible in some of the storms.

Tuesday will be an overall quieter day, but a cold front will pass with a shower chance Tuesday evening.  We’ll then note a northerly wind shift and a much colder air mass Tuesday night through Thursday morning.  Highs Wednesday will run 10°-15º below average.  If you’re not a fan of the cold, no need to fret as a warmer southerly flow will develop Thursday afternoon and put us in position to return to seasonable levels for highs Thursday after the chilly start.  We’ll then run much warmer than average this weekend, but it comes with a wet and stormy trade off.  Periods of heavy rain are possible Saturday into Sunday.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 1.25″ – 1.75″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/03/20/bumpy-start-to-the-work-week/

Mar 18

Weekend Improvements…

Highlights:

  • Chilly Saturday
  • Brighter Sunday
  • Unsettled week ahead

Improving Weekend Weather…The second half of the weekend will most certainly be more pleasant than the way we’re opening up.  Expect mostly cloudy skies with a potential quick-hitting shower, especially from Indianapolis and points northeast through the afternoon hours.  Drier air will then push in this evening and help set-up a very pleasant Sunday.  After a chilly Saturday, lower 50s sure will feel nice with that sunshine Sunday.

Unfortunately, we won’t be able to hang onto the sunny conditions for long.  Clouds increase Monday and evening showers develop.  Tuesday is a transition day and we’ll include mention of showers Tuesday morning before drier, colder air builds south Tuesday night and Wednesday.

A fast transition to a moist southerly flow will greet us for the latter portions of the week and we’ll ramp up shower and thunderstorm chances Thursday PM into Friday as a cold front approaches.  It’ll also be very windy (non-thunderstorm gusts of 40 MPH+).

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″

Our friend, Moe, sent these images from earlier in the week just north of Frankfort.  Despite the unseasonably cold weather we’ve been dealing with, these shots, separated only by a few hours, illustrate the power of that increasingly high March sun angle.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/03/18/weekend-improvements/

Mar 17

Gloomy St. Patrick’s Day Gives Way To A Brighter Weekend…

Highlights:

  • Wet, raw St. Patrick’s Day
  • Brighter weekend ahead
  • Shower chances return next week

Weekend Improvements Ahead…Today won’t be the classic “chamber of commerce” weather day across central Indiana.  A brief wintry mix impacted central and eastern portions of the state earlier this morning and will give way to “showery” weather with blustery conditions and an overall raw feel.  It won’t rain the entire day, but plan on packing the wet weather gear as you venture out to your March Madness and St. Patrick’s Day parties.  Stay safe out there!

Drier times will return for the weekend as high pressure slowly builds overhead.  Saturday will feature a couple of showers- especially across eastern portions of the state through the early afternoon.  However, brighter conditions will develop late in the day and by Sunday, mostly sunny skies will return.  Along with the increasing Sunday sunshine, temperatures will top 50° for the first time since March 8th.

Unfortunately the sunshine won’t last into the early stages of the work week as moisture returns and showers follow Monday into Tuesday.  We’ll turn briefly colder Wednesday before a moist southerly flow returns Thursday with another round of showers.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/03/17/gloomy-st-patricks-day-gives-way-to-a-brighter-weekend/

Mar 15

In The Deep Freeze…

Highlights:

  • Morning snow showers end
  • Slowly moderating temperatures
  • Wet St. Patrick’s Day
  • Sunshine returns this weekend

Heavy Winter Gear Required…The calendar may say mid-March, but Old Man Winter refuses to go away without having the last word.  To put things into perspective, our forecast high of 32° today is colder than our average low for the 15th (33°)!  To make matters worse, gusty north winds are pushing the wind chill factor into the single digits this morning.  Bundle up!  Moving forward, lake-enhanced snow showers will continue through the morning hours before ending as we progress through the afternoon.

After a cold start Thursday, a moderating trend will develop by afternoon.  Plentiful sunshine should be with us Thursday before clouds increase late in the day in advance of a warm front lifting northeast.  Showers will develop Friday (could begin as a touch of freezing rain, but not expecting problems Thursday night/ early Friday morning), but temperatures will actually reach seasonal levels despite the wet, breezy conditions.

Sunshine returns this weekend and though it’ll be cooler Saturday when compared to St. Patrick’s Day, considering how cold we’ve been of late, it won’t feel that bad. Early morning snow showers will target eastern and northeastern portions of the state before sunshine returns.

The next weather maker will provide showers Monday before we focus in on the middle of next week with potential of a more significant storm to deal with…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: Dusting
  • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 0.75″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/03/15/in-the-deep-freeze/

Mar 13

A Wintry Week…

Highlights:

  • Snow develops
  • Bitterly cold air for March
  • St. Patrick’s Day showers

Snow Develops…Drier air is “eating away” at the snow shield as it attempts to advance eastward this morning.  Eventually, we’ll moisten the atmosphere up enough to allow snow to push into the greater Indianapolis region by late morning.  Snow will accumulate this morning, but marginal temperatures, that high March sun angle, and the fact most of the snow will be falling during the afternoon, we don’t anticipate accumulation issues this afternoon.  Reinforcing cold air will filter back into the region tonight and last through mid week.  With this late season arctic air, additional snow showers and embedded heavier squalls will continue.  With all of that said, we don’t have any changes to our ongoing accumulation forecast.  Expect an inch, or less, for the city, itself, increasing to 2″-5″ for north-central Indiana (where lake effect will add to the totals) for storm totals through Wednesday.

Dry conditions return late Wednesday and Thursday, but the cold will continue.  Our next storm system arrives on the scene St. Patrick’s Day and with blustery, chilly conditions in place, showers added to the mix will feature “raw” weather conditions.  As it stands now, we are going with a more optimistic approach for the weekend, including a dry forecast with increasing sunshine.  After the cold week ahead, we will have earned it!

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 1″ – 2″
  • Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.50″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/03/13/a-wintry-week/

Mar 12

Work Week Opens Snowy…

Highlights:

  • Unseasonably cold
  • Snowy Monday
  • Cold week ahead

Sunny, But Cold…We may have sprung forward overnight, but Mother Nature can have a mind of her own.  Despite gaining an extra hour of daylight in the evening, temperatures will feel more like the dead of winter this week.  With the cold air comes snow chances, as well…

A frigid start to the day is at least accompanied by wall-to-wall sunshine, however, clouds will increase as we progress through the afternoon and evening hours.  Eventually those clouds will lower and thicken and give way to snow overspreading the state from west to east during the predawn hours Monday.  With marginally cold temperatures during the daytime Monday, we don’t anticipate big travel problems for most of central Indiana.  That said, if your travels take you north, prepare for slick travel as a “plowable” snow falls for our neighbors across northern Indiana.  As it stands now, we forecast generally an inch, or less, for the city, itself, Monday morning before melting occurs during the daytime.  As colder air pours into the state Monday evening, an additional dusting to coating is possible in spots through central Indiana as scattered snow showers and heavier bursts continue into midweek.  As mentioned, further north, several inches of snow (2″-5″) will fall for places like Lafayette, Kokomo, Marion and points north.  Perhaps an even bigger story will be the cold that follows the early-week snow.  Lows will fall into the middle teens for many central Indiana neighborhoods Wednesday and Thursday morning.

Looking ahead, confidence remains low in the late week forecast.  That fast-moving northwest flow aloft can (and will) wreck havoc on model solutions and fine tuning will be required as we progress through the week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 1″ – 3″
  • Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.40″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/03/12/work-week-opens-snowy/

Mar 11

Winter Finally Shows Up…

Highlights:

  • Much colder than average
  • Snow prospects to open the week
  • Busy pattern continues

Locked In A Cold Pattern…The stretch of spring-like, unseasonably warm, conditions we enjoyed through most of February and to open March will be all but a distant memory once to this time next week.  A major reversal to a colder than normal pattern is now with us and will feature lows into the teens on a few nights over the upcoming week.

Additionally, we continue to highlight the fast-moving northwest flow aloft.  This kind of regime wrecks havoc on forecast models and, accordingly, we have lower than normal confidence in the specifics late in the work week.  Stay tuned.

Before we get to late week, we have a disturbance (that will eventually help feed a blockbuster Nor Easter) that will deliver snow as we open up the work week.  This time of year, snow intensity and time of day mean a world of difference between an accumulating event, or not.  Snow should overspread central Indiana before sunrise Monday and will likely accumulate before the higher sun angle takes over and lighter snowfall rates result in a lack of daytime accumulation.  As reinforcing cold air filters in Monday night, additional light accumulation will be possible in scattered heavier snow showers that will continue into Tuesday.  All-in-all, this doesn’t appear to be a huge event, but a few slick spots will be possible Monday morning before that higher March sun angle gets to work.  We’ll keep a close eye on things.

Moving forward, we’re confident on the overall colder than normal pattern that will continue into Saint Patrick’s Day, but, as mentioned above, fine tuning will be required with the potential of a late week storm system to contend with.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 1″ – 3″
  • Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.50″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/03/11/winter-finally-shows-up/

Mar 09

Enjoy Today; Winter Returns…

Highlights:

  • Spring-like feel today
  • Much colder pattern developing
  • Accumulating snow early next week?

Colder Pattern Taking Hold…The day is dawning bright and sunshine will be with us through the majority of the day, along with pleasant, spring-like temperatures.  Find a way to get out and enjoy it!  Unfortunately, the pleasant weather will end tonight.

Clouds will increase late in the day and give way to showers during the nighttime period.  A cold front will press south and pull much colder air into the region as we wrap up the work week and head into the weekend.  The suppressed route is still the one most likely for the weekend system and instead we’re left with an unseasonably cold, mostly dry forecast, locally.  We’ll still be on the watch for the potential of some light snow early Saturday, but the more significant, accumulating snow will be shoved south to the TN Valley.  Those beautiful northeast TN and western NC mountains look to be in the “sweet spot” for this storm (plowable accumulations).

Another storm system will track through the Mid West as we close the weekend and open next week.  Consequently, clouds increase late in the day Sunday and snow should overspread the region Monday.  Reinforcing cold air will arrive Tuesday with snow showers and gusty winds.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 1″ – 3″
  • Rainfall: 0.10″ – 0.20″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/03/09/enjoy-today-winter-returns/

Mar 08

Strong Wind Event; Winter Makes A Comeback…

Highlights:

  • Windy day ahead
  • Colder pattern develops
  • Two snow chances in the days ahead

Hold On To Your Hats…The big story today will be developing strong and gusty winds, especially from the city and points north.  Westerly gusts will approach 50 MPH+ this afternoon and evening.  Hold onto your hats (and steering wheels)!

As we move into the latter portions of the week and into next week, a fast and active weather pattern will develop.  Three disturbances will have at least some impact on our weather between Thursday evening and Tuesday morning.

The first disturbance will result in an increase in cloudiness late Thursday along with an evening shower- especially across far eastern portions of the state.  We’ll turn much colder to close the week and that’s when our second disturbance will approach.  Clouds will increase Saturday and light snow is possible.  Models have trended further south with this disturbance, but we need to keep an eye on this as a last-minute shift north could take place.  As of this update, the most impactful disturbance looks to be the one that arrives Monday into Tuesday.  Accordingly, we’ll forecast developing snow Monday, continuing Tuesday with strong and gusty winds and even colder air.

After a prolonged stretch of spring-like warmth, the upcoming forecast period will serve as harsh reality that Old Man Winter still has some fight left in him.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 1″ – 3″
  • Rainfall: 0.10″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/03/08/strong-wind-event-winter-makes-a-comeback/

Mar 06

Rain Coverage Increases; Weekend Winter Storm Brewing?

Highlights:

  • Increasing coverage of showers and t-storms
  • Mostly dry mid week period
  • Weekend wintry fun and games

Busy Week Of Weather…The week is off to an unseasonably mild start as a strong southerly flow continues ahead of an approaching cold front.  That cold front will continue to push east today and sweep through the state Tuesday morning.  Coverage of showers will increase as we go through the late morning and early afternoon hours, but there will still be periods of dry weather today.  Best coverage of rain and thunderstorms will arrive overnight when most are sleeping and end (from northeast to southwest) Tuesday morning.

Mid week is relatively quiet as we begin to transition from a spring-like beginning to more of a winter-like close.  A weak weather system could offer up a few showers Thursday evening, but enthusiasm isn’t high for this to be a big deal.

A more significant storm will move in over the weekend.  This is a complex set-up, but we note anomalously cold air poised to spill south from Canada.  Given the trend of the winter, we’re treading lightly from hitting the big snow theme models currently suggest.  That said, the set-up is one that raises an eyebrow for the potential of a late season, impactful, winter event.  Stay tuned this week as we fine tune the details moving forward.  A word of caution, if we get snow down this weekend, we’ll have to lower temperatures even further for Sunday…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 1″ – 3″
  • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/03/06/rain-coverage-increases-weekend-winter-storm-brewing/

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