Category: 7-Day Outlook
Highlights:
- Scattered storms this evening
- Pleasant air continues for now
- More humid and stormy by late week
Pleasant Start Ends With Storms For Some…We couldn’t ask for more beautiful weather conditions for the last week of June. Hopefully you were able to get outside and enjoy these pleasant conditions over the weekend. If not, you still have a couple days to do so. Despite the sunny start to the day, enough upper level energy will move overhead this evening to help spark scattered showers and thunderstorms. Initially these storms will fire over northern Indiana before settling south through the evening. We think greatest coverage across central parts of the state will arrive between 6p-10p before these storms push south and diminish. Localized brief heavy downpours are possible, but, overall, this won’t be a significant, widespread heavy rain event.
We’re back to dry and pleasant conditions through Wednesday, but humidity will be on the rise by Thursday and so will shower and thunderstorm chances. We’ll have to monitor the potential of a couple rounds of gusty storms and heavy rain late week and we’ll have to fine tune timing as we get closer. Unsettled weather conditions will continue into the holiday weekend ahead.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 1.50″-2.00″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/06/26/pleasant-air-evening-storms-for-some/
I. The new work week will open up with a continuation of unseasonably cool temperatures. Speaking of temperatures, how nice has it been to have air equivalent of late-September as we get set to wrap up the month of June?!
II: A weak upper level disturbance will drift overhead Monday afternoon and help spark scattered showers and thunderstorms into the evening hours. Not everyone will get wet Monday evening, but a couple gusty storms are possible. Here’s a look at the radar valid at 6p Monday.
III. After a dry Tuesday and Wednesday, better shower and thunderstorm chances will return to our forecast for late week into next weekend. Additionally, temperatures and humidity levels will return to closer to seasonal norms.
IV. An active pattern will remain with us as we progress through the first half of June. A busy NW flow aloft will likely send multiple storm clusters southeast into the region and we’ll have to be mindful for the potential of some of these storm complexes containing strong-to-severe storms and excessive rainfall.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/06/25/another-week-is-upon-us-looking-ahead/
Highlights:
- Early fall-like feel
- Shower chance to open the work week
- More humid late week
Beautiful Weather Continues…To help put this weather into perspective- our average low and high in late September falls in the lower 50s with highs in the lower to middle 70s. For the next few days, an early fall-like feel will grip central Indiana, and you won’t hear many folks complaining about it! (Personally, I say let’s skip right to those crisp late September days and football season :-))! Despite a weak upper level disturbance creating a shower chance Monday, we’re dry through midweek.
A return southwesterly air flow will arrive on the scene by late week and this will serve to help boost temperatures and humidity levels, along with assist in creating a better chance of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms late week into next weekend. Let yours truly worry about that and you be sure to enjoy this rare late June air!
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 1.00-1.50″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/06/24/early-fall-like-weather-continues/
Highlights:
- Heavy rain and storms through the daytime
- Much cooler and drier air on the way
- Pleasant week ahead
Tropical Downpours Today…The remnant tropical moisture of Cindy is lifting northeast this morning while a cold front is dropping south. The combination of these two weather features will result in an expanding area of rain and thunderstorms across central Indiana late morning into the early afternoon. Periods of heavy rain can be expected. Thankfully, this won’t be a long duration event and a much drier air mass will invade from northwest to southeast by evening. We’ll easily notice this drier trend as dew points go from about as high (lower-middle 70s) as we ever see them this morning to a very crisp feel (dew points in the 50s) tonight.
The cooler and drier theme will continue through the weekend into the majority of the upcoming week ahead. As noted in previous discussions, a fast-moving northwest flow will be responsible for sending a couple of minor upper level disturbances southeast into the region. For the most part, we believe scattered showers will remain north of central Indiana until Monday afternoon and evening. While this won’t be a significant event by any stretch of the imagination, a couple of showers are possible.
Our air flow will eventually shift around to the southwest by the middle of the week and this will begin to send a warmer and increasingly moist air mass north by Thursday.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 1.50″ – 2.00″ (locally heavier amounts)
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/06/23/heavy-rain-gives-way-to-a-gorgeous-weekend/
Highlights:
- Breezy, warm Thursday
- Heavy rain Friday
- Drier and much cooler air on deck
Heavy Rains Likely Friday…A warm front is draped to our north this morning and this is helping spark a few showers across northern portions of the state. Here on the “home front,” with the exception of an isolated shower or storm, most should remain rain-free through the day, locally. Things begin to change late tonight into Friday as the region feels the effects of a “squeeze play” between Cindy’s remnant tropical moisture tracking through the TN Valley and an approaching cold front to our north. The combination of the two will promote the development of showers and thunderstorms across central IN. With a tropical nature to the airmass Friday, some of these storms will produce locally heavy rainfall. Most widespread rain and storm coverage should occur Friday morning into the afternoon before a drying trend develops from northwest to southeast Friday evening.
Our cold front will push southeast and clear the state Friday night which will allow a much drier and cooler air mass to settle in for the weekend, continuing into next week. You’ll be hard pressed to find anyone complaining about our weather through the period as a stretch of beautiful summer conditions take on an almost early fall-like feel through Tuesday. While we’ll have to keep an eye on a sneaky disturbance riding into the region on the fast northwest flow (could spark a quick passing shower), most of the period should remain rain-free. Eventually our air flow will shift to a southwesterly direction by the middle of next week and this will help transport an increasingly moist feel back into the region.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 1.00″ – 2.00″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/06/22/friday-squeeze-play-much-cooler-air-coming/
Highlights:
- PM storms
- Dry midweek
- Wet close to the work week
- Much cooler air looms
Busy Times…Upper level energy and just enough instability could spark another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Similar to Monday, these will be quick-movers, but shouldn’t be quite as strong as yesterday.
Dry weather will return through midweek and while pleasant air will still be with us Wednesday, a more humid feel will develop Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms will begin to creep back into the picture Thursday downstate, but we believe most of central Indiana should remain rain-free.
We’ll be in a “squeeze play” of sorts to close the work week and head into the weekend. A cold front will drop in from the north while remnant tropical moisture moves north out of the Deep South. Widespread showers and thunderstorms should result, including the potential of locally heavy rain.
The big story over the weekend into the last week of the month will be unseasonably cool air. Enough upper level energy will be around in a fast northwest flow aloft to lead to shower chances Sunday, otherwise early next week looks stunning- including plentiful sunshine, dry air, and unseasonably cool temperatures.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 1.00″ – 1.50″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/06/20/active-weather-pattern-remains-much-cooler-to-close-june/
Highlights:
- Feelin’ nice
- Scattered storms remain
- More widespread storms late week
Pleasant Open To The Work Week…A step out the door this morning will reveal a much more pleasant feel than what we’ve grown accustomed to over the past week, or so. Much lower humidity and cooler air will be with us through the day Tuesday. With that said, enough upper level energy will be nearby to spark afternoon and evening showers and embedded thundershowers both today and Tuesday.
Humidity will return for the midweek stretch, and temperatures will also be on the climb. While the weekend looks unsettled, the precise details remain a bit “murky” at this point. We know a cold front will slice into the warm and humid air mass, which will serve as a trigger for more widespread showers and thunderstorms (some with locally heavy rain). Some model guidance wants to get tropical moisture involved (from whatever comes of what’s currently Invest 93L). Stay tuned as we continue to look over the data this week. Regardless, a much cooler and drier air mass will arrive next week…
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 1.00″ – 1.50″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/06/19/refreshing-open-to-the-week-scattered-storm-chances-remain/
Highlights:
- Strong storms late tonight
- Turning cooler and less humid
- Unsettled pattern back half of next week
Storms Rumble In Late Tonight…Most of the daytime today will be dry and hot. High humidity will also be with us and will help boost heat indices into the middle 90s. Take it easy outdoors today.
We’ll have to keep a close eye on radar trends upstream tonight as a complex of thunderstorms is expected to erupt to our northwest this evening. This storm complex will track southeast and begin impacting Indiana by late-evening (thinking around 11p, or so, across northwest portions of the state as of now). As we push into the overnight, these storms will continue to settle southeast, including central Indiana. A couple of these storms may be strong and with such high moisture content, locally heavy rainfall is, once again, a good bet.
A couple of showers or thunderstorms will be with us Father’s Day, but outdoor plans shouldn’t be cancelled, as most of the day appears to be dry. It’ll be a cooler day and less humid air will filter into the state Sunday night. This will produce a glorious open to the work week!
Unsettled weather will return by the middle and latter portions of next week, along with a briefly warmer and more humid feel.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 1.50″ – 2.00″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/06/17/tropical-feel-stormy-later-tonight/
Highlights:
- Scattered storms remain
- Oppressive feel
- Cooler times next week
Locally Heavy Storms…We’ll remain locked into a very warm and moist air mass through the remainder of the week, but there’s light at the end of the tunnel. If you’re not a fan of the hot, humid weather, hang in there; next week will offer up a much different feel!
Before we discuss the cooler times that loom next week we still have to face several days of muggy weather and daily scattered storms. With such a “soupy” air mass in place (precipitable water exceeding 2″), any storms will be capable of producing torrential downpours. Similar to that of today, there will be “haves and have nots” over the next few days, but any storms that develop will have the potential of quickly pulsing to strong to severe levels and producing localized flash flooding.
Once to Sunday, a cold front will sweep through the state and finally wash all of the warm and humid air off to the southeast. While scattered storms will remain in our forecast through the weekend, a drier and cooler air mass will arrive on the scene early next week. Hang in there, friends!
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 1.00″ – 1.50″ (locally heavier totals)
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/06/13/soupy-now-but-changes-loom/
Highlights:
- Dry conditions continue
- Hot and turning humid
- Storm chances return
Tropical Feel Develops…Pleasant air is on borrowed time and we’ll begin to notice an increasingly muggy feel to the air as early as this afternoon. Dew points will reach oppressive levels Monday into Tuesday (70° and above). With the increased moisture, isolated thunderstorms will develop Tuesday, but most should still remain rain-free. Better shower and thunderstorm coverage will be noted Wednesday into Thursday as a frontal system moves through the state. This won’t be a “uniform” rain, but locally heavy downpours can be expected in the stronger storms. As dry as we’ve been, we’ll take what we can get. It’s a start, at the very least, towards a more active second half of June.
We’ll dry things out briefly Friday before another storm system approaches next weekend. Early indications would suggest next weekend’s storm system will provide more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity.
Tropics: Interesting times appear to be looming in the Gulf of Mexico as we push into the last couple weeks of the month. Models continue to paint various scenarios on potential early season tropical development and any one solution can’t be bought just yet. That said, the overall pattern does seem to want to promote some tropical “mischief” in the coming 10 days, or so.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.75″ – 1.00″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/06/11/hot-and-humid-storms-chances-return/
