Category: 7-Day Outlook

Cooler Today; Heavy Rain Arrives Over The Weekend…

A cold front will slip south through central Indiana over the next couple of hours. This will result in a much cooler feel when compared to the past couple of days, but still milder than normal for late-December. We’ll note temperatures generally holding steady in the mid 40s before falling into the 30s this evening.

As we flip the page to Saturday, changeable weather can be expected by evening. For the majority of the daytime, expect considerable cloudiness and cool conditions. Our wind direction will back around to the south Saturday night and this will result in rising temperatures (into the lower 60s by Sunday morning) along with periods of showers and thunderstorms developing during the overnight hours into Sunday.

We’ll keep close eyes on a secondary wave of moisture that will develop Sunday afternoon. While it still appears as if the bulk of the heavy rain associated with this secondary wave will remain to our east, portions of east-central Indiana can expect heavier storm totals. The large majority of central Indiana can expect total rainfall amounts of 0.75” to 1.25”, with 1.25” to 2” across east and southeast areas.

We’ll turn windy and colder for New Year’s Eve (northwest gusts of 30-40 MPH), but dry things out. Our next system of note won’t arrive until late next week.

More later this evening in our latest video update. Make it a great Friday!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/12/27/cooler-today-heavy-rain-arrives-over-the-weekend/

VIDEO: Quiet, Mild Weather Prevails Through Christmas; Rain Returns Friday…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/12/22/video-quiet-mild-weather-prevails-through-christmas-rain-returns-friday/

Week Ahead Outlook: Tracking (2) Notable Systems This Week…

Our weekend will wrap up on a pleasant note. Though clouds will be on the increase, temperatures will rise to much warmer than normal levels by early-December standards. Highs today will top out in the lower to middle 50s with increasing cloudiness.

Those clouds will eventually give way to rain during the overnight hours. A few sprinkles are possible this evening, but it’s not until midnight and into the predawn hours that the more concentrated rain will arrive.

Most of central Indiana can expect rainfall totals between 0.50″ and 1.00″ Monday. The steady rain Monday morning will taper to showers during the afternoon hours.

Colder air will pour into the state Monday night and gusty northwest winds. This cold air mass will eventually “catch up” with the moisture to our southeast and lead to a flip to snow for places from central and eastern KY into the Appalachians Tuesday. Meanwhile, lake effect snow showers will develop across northeast Indiana. For the most part, despite some light snow showers Tuesday morning, central Indiana shouldn’t expect anything “exciting” in the winter weather department.

High pressure will settle overhead through the midweek stretch with sunshine returning along with seasonably cold conditions.

Thereafter, a developing storm system in the Gulf of Mexico will lead to an active close to the week. Low pressure will form in the central Gulf Friday afternoon before tracking up along the Appalachian chain into the weekend. With a lack of cold air and retreating high (orientation of the cold air supply/ high pressure system is critical this time of year), this should be another mostly wet and not white weather maker.

Cold air will eventually wrap into the system from the west late in the weekend and could lead to precipitation ending as wet snow, but this idea is far from being “etched in stone.”

Video update will come a bit later with fresh 12z thoughts, along with a look-ahead to Christmas. Make it a great Sunday, friends!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/12/08/week-ahead-outlook-tracking-2-notable-systems-this-week/

VIDEO: Arctic Air Comes And Goes Next Week…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/12/07/video-arctic-air-comes-and-goes-next-week/

Quiet Weather Continues; Busier Days Ahead Next Week…

Another day of sunshine is on deck with temperatures approaching the 50° mark for many central Indiana communities. Not bad at all by early December standards, huh?

Clouds will increase tonight and remain with us through the end of the work week. These clouds are associated with a system that will scoot by well to our south. Some light rain will likely impact areas south of Indianapolis Friday morning into the early afternoon, but central Indiana should remain precipitation-free.

High pressure will dominate our weekend weather, continuing to lead to quiet conditions along with a return of sunshine.

The next round of more widespread precipitation will push into the state Sunday night into Monday. Even this isn’t anticipated to be significant with most central Indiana reporting sites receiving rainfall amounts of half an inch or less by Monday evening.

As the surface wave pulls up to the northeast, MUCH colder air will whip into the region Tuesday. Light snow will develop as the moisture departs, but we’re still not expecting this to be a big deal in the snow department (dusting to less than 1″ type event as of now).

However, the cold is another story. Wednesday morning will feature lows in the lower to middle teens with single digit wind chill values. In the it could “always be worse” department, check out those temperatures our friends across the upper Mid West and northern Plains will have to deal with…

Much more later!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/12/05/quiet-weather-continues-busier-days-ahead-next-week/

VIDEO: Potential Shower This Evening? Looking Ahead To A Busy Week Of Weather…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/19/video-potential-shower-this-evening-looking-ahead-to-a-busy-week-of-weather/

VIDEO: Timing Out Storm Systems In The Upcoming Week; Colder Late Month Trends…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/12/video-timing-out-storm-systems-in-the-upcoming-week-colder-late-month-trends/

VIDEO: Week Ahead Outlook; Reviewing The New JAMSTEC Winter Update…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/09/16/video-week-ahead-outlook-reviewing-the-new-jamstec-winter-update/

Widely Scattered Light Showers Through Labor Day Weekend; Tracking A Strong Cold Front Late Next Week…

A frontal boundary will continue to settle south this morning and we’ll notice a much less humid feel tonight into Saturday morning as a northeast wind takes hold.

Dew points will fall into the 50s tonight into Saturday morning across the northern half of the state.

Widely scattered light showers will scoot across the state late tonight into Saturday morning.

We’re still not expecting heavy or widespread organized rain this Labor Day weekend- just widely scattered “nuisance” level showers at times. There will be many more dry hours than wet through the holiday weekend.

Most area rain gauges can expect to pick up between 0.25″ and 0.50″ by Monday afternoon.

The big story this weekend will be Hurricane Dorian. We anticipate Dorian to strengthen into a major hurricane later today. The latest official National Hurricane Center forecast brings Dorian into the southeast Florida peninsula as a major hurricane late Labor Day night or Tuesday. While confidence continues to increase on an eventual landfall along the Florida peninsula (before a hard turn right that would take Dorian either north across the peninsula or perhaps wobble back off shore), timing is much more uncertain as the majority of data has slowed the forward progress of Dorian this weekend. If you have interests across the state or loved ones in the path of the storm, it’ll be important to stay tuned for future updates.

Back here on the home front, quiet weather is expected through early week. The first of 2 cold fronts will pass Tuesday night or early Wednesday (little in the way of fanfare with that frontal passage).

The second front will be a bigger deal late next week. Though still rather moisture starved, it’s the drop in temperatures expected behind the frontal passage that will be impressive. We’ll notice an October-level chill next weekend as this front sweeps off to the southeast. We note the latest European data has highs only in the 60s next weekend with lows in the 40s.

Meanwhile, it’s very possible we’ll still be dealing with Dorian this time next week along the southeast US costal region…

Much more through the weekend, including updates on Dorian, the season’s 1st strong fall frontal passage, and our September Outlook.

Enjoy your Friday, friends!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/08/30/widely-scattered-light-showers-through-labor-day-weekend-tracking-a-strong-cold-front-late-next-week/

Sizzling Temperatures Dominate Headlines Into The Holiday…

It’s been an easy going summer so far from a heat and humidity standpoint, but that’s all about to change as we move through the upcoming week leading up to Independence Day.

An upper level ridge will dominate our pattern into the middle of next week.

This will serve to eliminate widespread rain and thunderstorm coverage across central Indiana during the short-term. (Isolated to widely scattered coverage is all we can expect this weekend into the early part of next week). Additionally, the hottest air of the summer season thus far is on deck. We’re expecting 5 of the upcoming 7 days to feature highs around the 90 degree mark. Humidity will also build into early next week with overnight lows not falling lower than the lower 70s some mornings.

As we look ahead, the upper ridge will begin to break down by the middle of next week and with that will come increasing chances for better coverage of showers and thunderstorms.

Longer term, we still anticipate the pattern to progress in a manner that will allow cooler and wetter conditions to return before mid-month. Our reasoning can be found in last night’s video update in case you missed it!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/06/28/sizzling-temperatures-dominate-headlines-into-the-holiday/

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