Category Archives: 7-Day Outlook

Weekly #AGwx And Severe Weather Outlook…

Updated 03.07.21 @ 8:48a

I. Unseasonably mild open to the week

II. Heavy rain/ potential flooding threat looms late week across OHV

Widespread above normal temperatures can be expected this week. Only exception to this will be across the West and far Southeast.
Above normal precipitation will target the MO Valley and into the western OHV.
We expect between 1″ and 2″ for most of IN in the week ahead.
Widespread significant drought continues across the West, especially Southwest/ Four-Corners region.

Forecast period: 03.07.21 through 03.14.21

While our weather will remain “eerily quiet” to open this forecast period, significant changes await on deck by the 2nd half of the week. These changes will be ushered in from a cold front that will lead to increasing shower (maybe even embedded t-storm) chances Thursday before rain becomes widespread Thursday night into Friday. The GFS and European computer models begin to disagree on the evolution of things next weekend. The GFS stalls the front just to our south before a surface wave of low pressure rides along the boundary over the Saturday-Sunday period. Meanwhile, the European shoves the front off to the south in a quicker fashion, allowing for a drier weekend. We’ll need to keep a close eye on things and update in the days ahead. Should the GFS idea be correct, a flood threat would ensue, including weekend rainfall totals of several inches. We’re not ready to jump on the excessive rainfall idea yet, due to the differences in the handling of the frontal boundary/ associated surface wave, but will keep a very close eye on things. Stay tuned.

No Comments 7-Day Outlook, AG Report, Client, Flooding, Heavy Rain

03.01.21 Weather Bulletin: In Like A Lamb…

Updated 03.01.21 @ 5:50p

About As Quiet As It Can Get…March couldn’t feature any quieter conditions to open up the month. It’s almost eerily quiet… High pressure will dominate our weather and supply an extended stretch of dry conditions. We’ll “flirt” with milder air Wednesday before a brief setback to close the week. Then, it’s off to the races next week, including several days that should go well into the 60s!

The next chance of meaningful precipitation doesn’t appear to be on the horizon until early to middle parts of next week.

Averages: H: 45°/ L: 28° on the 1st –> H: 48°/ L: 30° on the 8th

No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Client, Forecast Discussion, Spring, Unseasonably Warm

Weekly #AGwx And Severe Weather Outlook…

Updated 02.28.21 @ 7:25a

Headlines:

I. Heavy rain threat targets TN River Valley

II. Eastern, Southeastern regions cool late in the period

Overall, over the upcoming 7-day period, above normal temperatures are expected from the northern Plains into the Southeast, including OHV.
Precipitation is expected to run above normal across the Southeast, TN Valley, and lower OHV.
Rainfall should run between 0.75″ and 1.25″ for central IN over the upcoming 7-days.
There is a threat of severe weather today from the Ark-la-tex region into the western TN Valley.
Widespread significant drought continues across the West, especially Southwest/ Four-Corners region.

Forecast period: 02.28.21 through 03.07.21

The short-term will be dominated by a the wet (and stormy for some) time of things from the OH Valley, but more so centered in the TN River Valley. Eventually the associated frontal boundary will sweep into the Southeast region early in the work week before stalling out and serving as the focal point for additional storm systems mid and late week. The first of these systems will scoot from the southern Plains east into the Southeast in the Monday through Wednesday time period with additional opportunities for heavy rain and local severe weather. We’ll watch for another suppressed system late in the week that will likely take a similar route in the Thursday-Saturday timeframe.

From a central Indiana standpoint, best rain chances out of the entire period are in front of us now. Things should dry out considerably through the balance of the upcoming work week given the overall pattern.

No Comments 7-Day Outlook, AG Report, Client, Severe Weather

02.22.21 Weather Bulletin: A Much Milder Week…

Updated 02.22.21 @ 8:15a

Gusty Out This Morning…Westerly winds are blowing at a good clip this morning, including gusts of 30-40 MPH. These will continue into the afternoon before diminishing. All in all, we’re looking at a much milder stretch of weather in the week ahead. Compared to the past couple of weeks, most days will be downright balmy. Sunshine will return tomorrow and remain with us through the day Friday. It continues to look like Wednesday night’s frontal passage will be an uneventful one.

As we look ahead to the weekend, shower chances return Saturday as a couple of systems team together. As of now, the northern and southern stream energy doesn’t look like it’ll phase until over the Northeast/ New England region. As such, this doesn’t look like a big deal here, but we’ll continue to keep an eye on things.

Averages: H: 43°/ L: 26° on the 22nd –> H: 45°/ L: 28° on the 28th

No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Client, Forecast Discussion, Rain, Unseasonably Warm, Weekly Outlook, Windy

02.19.21 Weather Bulletin: 13 Days And Counting…

Updated: 02.19.21 @ 7:55a

Cold Times Persist Into The Weekend…It’s been 13 full days since we last saw anything close to the freezing mark and we’ll tack on a couple more days before we inch back up above freezing Sunday. This has been an impressive cold stretch (likely longest since back in 2007).

While we’ll see some early sunshine today, clouds will begin to increase through the afternoon and will eventually yield some light snow showers as we move into later tonight and Saturday. The positive in these clouds? It’ll keep us in the “balmy” single digits (as opposed to the once thought 0° to 5° below zero range) to open up our Saturday.

A slightly stronger system will arrive on the scene Sunday afternoon and evening and you know the fear here: that we will be looking at icing issues Sunday PM. Even with temperatures expected to be a couple degrees above freezing, given the strength and magnitude of the cold as of late, the concern is that any sort of liquid precipitation will freeze on the surface. I’d plan on potentially slick travel across the region Sunday evening as this system blows through. Precipitation should arrive mostly after 4p and while we’re not talking about plentiful amounts (0.2″ to 0.4″ for most), it doesn’t take much to create problems.

A gusty westerly breeze will then greet us to open the new work week and this will blow relatively milder air into the region into midweek before a cold front settles south and returns the chill for late next week. As this takes place, we’ll have to keep our eyes to the southwest for the possibility of another more significant winter feature impacting the general area just beyond the current 7-day period.

Averages: H: 41°/ L: 25° on the 19th –> H: 44°/ L: 27° on the 25th

No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Arctic Cold, Client, Forecast Discussion, Rain, snow, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Wintry Mix