Category: 7-Day Outlook

Feb 28

Weekly #AGwx And Severe Weather Outlook…

Updated 02.28.21 @ 7:25a

Headlines:

I. Heavy rain threat targets TN River Valley

II. Eastern, Southeastern regions cool late in the period

Overall, over the upcoming 7-day period, above normal temperatures are expected from the northern Plains into the Southeast, including OHV.
Precipitation is expected to run above normal across the Southeast, TN Valley, and lower OHV.
Rainfall should run between 0.75″ and 1.25″ for central IN over the upcoming 7-days.
There is a threat of severe weather today from the Ark-la-tex region into the western TN Valley.
Widespread significant drought continues across the West, especially Southwest/ Four-Corners region.

Forecast period: 02.28.21 through 03.07.21

The short-term will be dominated by a the wet (and stormy for some) time of things from the OH Valley, but more so centered in the TN River Valley. Eventually the associated frontal boundary will sweep into the Southeast region early in the work week before stalling out and serving as the focal point for additional storm systems mid and late week. The first of these systems will scoot from the southern Plains east into the Southeast in the Monday through Wednesday time period with additional opportunities for heavy rain and local severe weather. We’ll watch for another suppressed system late in the week that will likely take a similar route in the Thursday-Saturday timeframe.

From a central Indiana standpoint, best rain chances out of the entire period are in front of us now. Things should dry out considerably through the balance of the upcoming work week given the overall pattern.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/weekly-agwx-and-severe-weather-outlook-21/

Feb 22

02.22.21 Weather Bulletin: A Much Milder Week…

Updated 02.22.21 @ 8:15a

Gusty Out This Morning…Westerly winds are blowing at a good clip this morning, including gusts of 30-40 MPH. These will continue into the afternoon before diminishing. All in all, we’re looking at a much milder stretch of weather in the week ahead. Compared to the past couple of weeks, most days will be downright balmy. Sunshine will return tomorrow and remain with us through the day Friday. It continues to look like Wednesday night’s frontal passage will be an uneventful one.

As we look ahead to the weekend, shower chances return Saturday as a couple of systems team together. As of now, the northern and southern stream energy doesn’t look like it’ll phase until over the Northeast/ New England region. As such, this doesn’t look like a big deal here, but we’ll continue to keep an eye on things.

Averages: H: 43°/ L: 26° on the 22nd –> H: 45°/ L: 28° on the 28th

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/02-22-21-weather-bulletin-a-much-milder-week/

Feb 19

02.19.21 Weather Bulletin: 13 Days And Counting…

Updated: 02.19.21 @ 7:55a

Cold Times Persist Into The Weekend…It’s been 13 full days since we last saw anything close to the freezing mark and we’ll tack on a couple more days before we inch back up above freezing Sunday. This has been an impressive cold stretch (likely longest since back in 2007).

While we’ll see some early sunshine today, clouds will begin to increase through the afternoon and will eventually yield some light snow showers as we move into later tonight and Saturday. The positive in these clouds? It’ll keep us in the “balmy” single digits (as opposed to the once thought 0° to 5° below zero range) to open up our Saturday.

A slightly stronger system will arrive on the scene Sunday afternoon and evening and you know the fear here: that we will be looking at icing issues Sunday PM. Even with temperatures expected to be a couple degrees above freezing, given the strength and magnitude of the cold as of late, the concern is that any sort of liquid precipitation will freeze on the surface. I’d plan on potentially slick travel across the region Sunday evening as this system blows through. Precipitation should arrive mostly after 4p and while we’re not talking about plentiful amounts (0.2″ to 0.4″ for most), it doesn’t take much to create problems.

A gusty westerly breeze will then greet us to open the new work week and this will blow relatively milder air into the region into midweek before a cold front settles south and returns the chill for late next week. As this takes place, we’ll have to keep our eyes to the southwest for the possibility of another more significant winter feature impacting the general area just beyond the current 7-day period.

Averages: H: 41°/ L: 25° on the 19th –> H: 44°/ L: 27° on the 25th

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/02-19-21-weather-bulletin-13-days-and-counting/

Feb 14

02.14.21 Weather Bulletin: Memorable Week Of Winter Weather…

Updated 02.14.21 @ 8a

Back-to-Back Heavy Snow Storms…Use today to complete preparations for what will be a memorable week of winter weather. While bitter out this morning, we’ll at least enjoy a dry day. Wind chills that are at dangerous levels right now (-10° to -20°) will “warm” to between 0° and 5° above this afternoon.

Snow will overspread the state from southwest to northeast as we move through the night. Initially, we’re talking about mostly light snow, but roadways will be a mess for the morning commute Monday (given how cold it’s been as of late). If you can avoid travel altogether, we’d recommend doing so. Snow will really begin to pick up in intensity after lunchtime Monday, and especially towards evening, continuing into the overnight hours. Periods of heavy snow can be expected during this time frame. The snow will be mostly out of here by Tuesday morning, but not before depositing a widespread 5″ to 8″, including localized amounts up to 10″. You’ll want to get on the clean up from the first storm as another “big one” awaits.

After a mostly dry Tuesday and daytime Wednesday, light snow will develop towards sunset and become heavy at times Thursday. This second storm has the potential to be equally, if not more, significant than its predecessor and we’ll have early snowfall numbers issued this afternoon. By Friday morning, widespread snowfall totals of 10″ to 15″ (if not more in spots) can be expected with drifts in the open country that even a yardstick won’t be able to handle.

We’ll have our updated snowfall maps included with our Client video update that will be published this afternoon. A Client Brief will be posted later today, as well, focusing on the specific details of Storm #1.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/02-14-21-weather-bulletin-memorable-week-of-winter-weather/

Feb 12

02.12.21 Weather Bulletin: Continuing To Keep Close Eyes On Next Week…

Updated: 02.12.21 @ 7:34a

Use This Weekend To Prep…The short-term portion of this forecast is relatively quiet. Take advantage and prepare for significant winter weather next week. We may even see a few breaks in the cloud cover today. All in all, look for mostly cloudy and continued cold conditions. Keep in mind, average highs this time of year should be close to 40°. We’ll be nowhere near that anytime soon. In fact, most days will feature high temperatures even colder than average lows for this time of year!

Reinforcing arctic air will penetrate the area Saturday and will likely kick up some light snow showers- especially during the afternoon. Light snow will remain a possibility Valentine’s Day, but “light” is the key word.

The more exciting part of this forecast comes at us as we open the work week. Surface low pressure will develop in the northwest Gulf of Mexico Sunday night and track northeast up along the Appalachians. This will spread a swath of snow into the Ohio Valley through the day Monday. It appears as if snow will become heavy at times Monday evening into the predawn hours Tuesday before tapering to light snow/ snow showers late Tuesday morning. This will be a much more powdery snow than we typically see with these Gulf storms, due to having truly arctic air involved with the storm. Gusty winds will create significant blowing and drifting issues throughout the early and middle portion of the work week.

That then leads us to the threat of another significant winter storm as we push into Wednesday night into Friday morning. We don’t want to get ahead of ourselves, but the threat is very real that this storm also deals out heavy impacts across the region with additional heavy snow possible during the aforementioned time frame.

We’d suggest using the weekend to prepare for the potential of two back-to-back “big deal” winter storms. We’ll be here through the weekend with additional updates.

Averages: H: 39/ L: 23° on the 12th –> H: 41°/ L: 25° on the 18th

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/02-12-21-weather-bulletin-continuing-to-keep-close-eyes-on-next-week/