As part of some exciting and significant enhancements that we’re looking forward to announcing later this fall, we’re going to be including more content that’s typically only been going out to private clients. Some of that content includes our ‘medium range notes’ that go out each evening, included in the sample below.
As we look at the medium range period, or the 6-10 day time frame, the pattern flip to a cooler and more active regime is clear. Both the respective GFS and European ensemble members (below) see the significant changes that will be with us as we put a wrap on July and look ahead to welcoming August. Note the upper ridge retrograding west.
Image source: Tropicaltidbits.com
Image source: Tropicaltidbits.com
Not only will this help drive a significantly cooler pattern, but a wetter one to boot. We note data reflecting wetter than average times returning for the upper Mid West, Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley during the upcoming 6-10 day period. It appears as if much-needed moisture will be returning to central Indiana.
Image source: Tropicaltidbits.com
Also note the dramatic flip to cooler times.
Image source: Tropicaltidbits.com
Storms Of Significance:
Of note during the period, we’re targeting a storm system that will likely deliver unsettled weather to central Indiana over the upcoming weekend, continuing into the Days 6-7 time period. This is followed by another storm system that will deliver unsettled conditions Days 9-10, including reinforcing cooler than average temperatures.
As always, IndyWx.com features daily blog and video updates that include details around the short-term period.
Forecaster: BM
Otherwise, look for considerable cloudiness and highs topping out in the lower 70s today.
As we look ahead to the end of May, there really aren’t any significant changes to the overall warmer than normal theme we’ve enjoyed so far this month. Longer range guidance off of the European ensemble continues to support broad scale upper ridging across the Mid West and Ohio Valley and a corresponding warmer than average regime. From a precipitation perspective, the next couple of weeks do look more active compared to the dry start to the month. Case in point, the balance of the upcoming week will be dominated by a stalled frontal boundary. While we’ll have to fine tune exactly where the front stalls, daily chances of showers and thunderstorms (scattered fashion) can be expected.
…and a year-to-date that looks like this:
…sustained warmth is music to the ears of many Hoosiers! Thankfully, the balance of the upcoming (10) days will feature warmer than average conditions, as illustrated by the latest European ensemble data.
This will include multiple days with high temperatures rising into the 80s over the upcoming 10-day stretch (Tuesday and Wednesday and again next Monday through Wednesday).
As for rainfall totals, it still appears widespread amounts will check-in in the half inch to one inch range, but a few locally heavier amounts can be expected.
Models continue to dry us out in time for the weekend and all of those important Cinco de Mayo/ Derby plans. An increasingly sunny sky will be with us along with highs in the middle 70s Saturday afternoon! Can you say “perfection?”