Category Archives: 10-day

Weekly #AGwx And #Severe Weather Outlook…

Updated 03.24.24 @ 8:20a

While a period of unsettled weather looms late Monday and Tuesday, the majority of the upcoming week will feature quiet conditions across our neck of the woods. We’re watching Tuesday afternoon for the potential of severe weather across the state.

The ‘mean’ trough will settle into the western CONUS and that’s where the coldest anomalies will setup shop.

A trough will take up residence across the West with only glancing blows of cooler air, locally.
A chilly week is in store for the West with the temperature swings balancing out very close to average across our area this week.
Rainfall will run average to slightly below average in the week ahead south and east.

Forecast period: 03.24.24 – 03.31.24

We’ll close the weekend with quiet conditions in place. Anticipate gusty winds to kick up Monday as our next storm system approaches from the west. This will also deliver a few showers Monday night before heavier rain and embedded thunder arrives Tuesday predawn. An additional round of thunderstorms is expected Tuesday afternoon and a few of these could become strong to severe (damaging straight line winds are of greatest concern, but an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out).

A cold front will sweep east and end the rain/ storm threat Tuesday night with calmer weather returning for mid and late week. The next chance of rain will arrive next weekend. Speaking of next weekend, though early, model guidance is suggestive that we may be looking at a heavy rain event around the time that we close out March and open April. Just something we’ll be keeping an eye on in the days ahead.

Upcoming storm dates to keep an eye on:

  • 03.25 – 03.26
  • 03.30 – 04.01

*10-day Rainfall Projection: 2.00″ to 3.00″

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Friday Morning Rambles: More Long Range Chatter…

Updated 03.22.24 @ 7:56a

The ‘mean’ trough position will take up shop across the western portion of the country over the upcoming week before shifting into the East in the 10-15 day period. We reiterate while the balance of the upcoming 2 weeks will run cooler than normal, we don’t see anything significantly colder than normal on the horizon and also plenty of transitional warmth ahead of approaching storms.

Note how the trough shifts east late in the period.

Day 1-5
Day 5-10
Day 10-15

Back to the immediate term, we’ll only see a few light showers later this afternoon (trace to 0.10”). Greatest coverage should arrive after lunch, continuing into mid-afternoon. Again, “light” is the key word.

Colder air arrives for the weekend, itself. We can expect mid to upper 20s both Saturday and Sunday morning.

A new, stronger, storm will blow into town with more in the way of widespread heavier rain and thunder Monday night into the day Tuesday.

Another system will follow late week and next weekend.

1” to 2” is a good bet across the greater region by next Sunday. (The bulk of this falls with our Monday night and Tuesday system).

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VIDEO: Rain Increases In Intensity By Evening; MJO Influences On The Longer Range…

Updated 03.08.24 @ 7:50a “Showery” weather through the early to mid afternoon will give way to an increasingly heavier rain by evening, continuing through the overnight. This is all thanks…

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VIDEO: Another Round Of Heavy Rain On Deck; Briefly Cooler Sunday Before A Renewed “Mild-Up” Next Week…

Updated 03.07.24 @ 7:31a Though still stuck with a lot of clouds today, at least we’ll enjoy another dry day. That all begins to change Friday as a new system…

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Weekly #AGwx And #Severe Weather Outlook…

Updated 03.02.24 @ 6:38a

An unseasonably mild week is on tap with a couple chances of rain and embedded thunder. Widespread, organized severe weather isn’t anticipated in the upcoming week.

An anomalous upper air pattern will drive an unseasonably mild and at times wet regime, locally.
Temperatures will run well above average in the week ahead across the Central and Eastern portion of the country with unseasonably cold conditions across the West. Plenty of 60s and even 70s are in store for daytime highs in the week ahead.
Greatest deviations from normal in the rainfall department will come along the Southeast and Eastern seaboard. Slightly above normal rains are anticipated through the central Plains into the southwestern Great Lakes region.

Forecast Period: 03.02.24 – 03.09.24

After a quiet weekend (including a progressively brighter sky :-)), unsettled weather will come at us in 2 waves in the week ahead: Monday evening into Tuesday morning and again Friday evening into Saturday. In both cases, we expect widespread precipitation. In the case of our early week system, embedded thunder (non-severe) can’t be ruled out. With our late week storm system, the early call now is for more of an organized general rain to fall. Colder air will return to the region by the latter part of next weekend, potentially including some snow showers by Sunday.

Upcoming Storm Dates to keep an eye on:

  • 03.04 – 03.05
  • 03.08 – 03.10

*10-Day Rainfall Projection: 1.00” to 2.00”

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