Feb 02
This morning’s video update takes a closer look at the individual storm systems that have our attention over the upcoming 10-14 days. We continue to expect our neck of the…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/timing-out-storms-in-what-will-be-a-very-active-upcoming-couple-weeks/
Feb 01
While we’re in the process of pulling out of the bitterly cold air mass, there’s no shortage of action when we look ahead at the upcoming couple of weeks.
Confidence remains high that the upcoming short-term period (Days 2-6) will flip to much warmer than average. A couple days that at least flirt with the 60 degree mark can be expected Sunday and Monday.
While rain will return to the forecast Monday, the milder air sure will be a nice change of pace from the bitterness of the past several days. Enjoy it!
With that said, there are continued indications that the warmth won’t hold.
As we look at the latest medium range ensemble guidance (Days 6-10), the GEFS and EPS are in relatively good agreement.
We note this is a pattern conducive for above normal precipitation during the period. With cold air likely to be “pressing” towards the region, it’s a pattern that has to raise an eyebrow for at least the potential of a wintry threat during this time frame. There should be plenty of low level cold air available late next week and next weekend. With the resistance shown from the SE ridge, potential “fun and games” are on the table during this timeframe as waves of energy likely ride along a slow (at times stalled) frontal boundary.
Keep an eye on the 2/7 through 2/10 window for possible wintry impacts, locally…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/6-10-day-update-active-times-ahead/
Jan 24
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/active-pattern-severe-cold-looms-next-week/
Jan 23
The 6-10 day period will likely be dominated by an air mass of arctic origin, and the potential is present for the period to begin with a rather significant winter event. Models have occasionally “teased” the idea of dropping the PV (Polar Vortex) over the Great Lakes during this period, and that’s not something that’s off the table given the pattern here. Suffice it to say, we expect this period to run much colder than average.
While there will be some specifics we’ll have to sort through as time gets closer, this is remarkable model agreement when looking at the GFS and European ensemble sets in the medium term.
We’ve been discussing the opportunity where we see the flow slow enough to allow one or two of these clipper systems in the medium to longer range to deepen into a stronger storm system. That may be the case late weekend into early parts of next week and it’s something we’re keeping a close eye on. In addition to measurable snow, the potential is on the table for notable cold in the 6-10 day period, including multiple days below zero. In the extreme, this is the type pattern that could lead to double digit below zero cold across central Indiana- not including the wind chill.
Stay tuned.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/6-10-day-outlook-significant-winter-event-looms/
Dec 25
Tomorrow will be a rather uneventful weather day across central Indiana, but things will begin to change as we head into Thursday.
An area of low pressure will track out of the central Plains into the Great Lakes by Friday. The end result will be increasing coverage of showers Thursday afternoon and perhaps even a rumble of thunder Thursday evening.
Most of the concentrated rain should come to an end around dark Thursday. By that time we forecast a general 1/2″ to 1″ to fall in area rain gauges.
More seasonable air will blow in here behind the storm system and we’ll have to keep an eye on energy “attacking” from behind over the weekend. With colder weather in place, snow is possible next weekend.
Looking ahead, a combination of ingredients appears to be coming together to create a rather significant transition in the pattern as we head into January. Note the developing positive PNA…
This will result in more sustained below normal temperatures making a return early January to our neck of the woods…
Additionally, it also appears an active storm track will continue. While impossible to say this far in advance, prospects for above average snowfall (average is 8.6″) appear likely through the month of January.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/looking-at-the-holiday-week-and-ahead-to-january/