Updated 08.18.23 @ 4:35a
Despite the blazing heat that awaits in the week ahead, another push of unseasonably cool and refreshing air that we’ll enjoy to open the weekend is a sign that autumn isn’t that far away.
As the El Niño continues to strengthen heading into fall, we’re bullish here at IndyWx.com that an unseasonably warm start to autumn is on tap. While not nearly as hot as what the week ahead will entail, we think we’ll remain close enough to the ‘mean’ upper ridge position to result in at least slightly to moderately above normal temperatures for September as a whole (say in the + 1.5° to + 3° range).
The latest European extended product and JMA Weeklies back this idea up, including a drier than normal look. While we’ll have to be on guard for the potential of ridge rider storm clusters as the ridge retrogrades west at times, the overall pattern through at least mid-September sure appears drier than normal as a whole.
While not quite as toasty, the GFS extended product is also painting a dry regime into mid-September.
From a temperature perspective into mid September, we prefer a blend of what the JMA/ Euro and GFS are suggesting. Again, slightly warmer than normal overall o/ the upcoming 3-4 week period.
As we evolve deeper into September and closer to early October, we believe the threat of an early season cold blast, including frost threat will show up a few weeks earlier than normal this season. This likely won’t be a full scale, permanent shift to cold, but rather a chilly “jolt.” Given the evolving Niño, we’ll have to likely wait until later into October before we have something more meaningful and sustained from a cold weather standpoint. . .