May 2020 archive

Weekly #AGwx And #Severe Outlook…

Weekly Highlights:

I. Additional threat of late season frost/ freeze early in the forecast period.

II. Transition in the pattern midweek signals a significant flip from the record chill across the East to one much more typical for mid-late May. Meanwhile, the West will turn much cooler.

A transition in our overall weather pattern will lead to a return of wet weather mid-late week, including multiple rounds of t-storms from the Plains into the Ohio Valley.
7-day rainfall should run between 1.75″ and 2.25″ with locally heavier amounts across central Indiana.
While the period will run cooler than normal, it’s because the first few days this week will run so far below normal. We’ll actually warm significantly mid-late week, however, the deviation from normal won’t be enough to tip the scale from the week being cooler overall across the Plains and East.
A couple gusty storms are possible across central and eastern IN this afternoon. We’ll also have to closely monitor late week for the threat of additional strong thunderstorms.

Forecast Period: 05.10.20 through 05.17.20

An area of low pressure and associated cold front will blast across the Ohio Valley during the next 24 hours. Ahead of the front, scattered showers are already entering the state from the west this morning. As we progress into the afternoon, we’ll watch for the potential of a couple skinny lines of thunderstorms try to develop across central and eastern parts of the state. A couple of these storms could quickly pulse to strong – severe levels and pose a threat of damaging straight line winds and hail. Once the front scoots to our east, we’ll notice a much colder (yet again) northwesterly breeze and drier conditions to open the work week. There will be a threat of another frost and freeze by Tuesday morning. Patchy frost is also possible Wednesday morning, especially across east-central parts of the state.

Thereafter, our region will undergo a rather significant flip in the overall pattern. As a result, an airmass much more typical of mid-May will engulf the eastern portion of the country. With the significantly warmer conditions will also come a few rounds of rain and thunder during the mid-late week stretch. Locally heavy rain is likely towards the end of the period including the threat of additional strong thunderstorms in the Thursday-Saturday time frame.

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VIDEO: New Daily And May All-Time Record Low Established; Looking Ahead To The Upcoming Week…

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VIDEO: Stage Set For Record Cold Saturday AM; Updated Long Range Thoughts Towards Memorial Day Weekend…

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In Position To Challenge The All-Time Record Low For May Saturday; Discussing Degree Of Moderation Late Month…

We may only be a few weeks away from meteorological summer, but you wouldn’t know it. Instead, we’re talking about the potential of wet snow mixing in with a cold rain to close the work week and threat of lows falling into the 20s Saturday morning!

A strong cold front will settle south across the Ohio Valley Friday morning. In response to the front moving south, surface low pressure will organize along the boundary across the TN Valley Friday morning before roaring northeast and off the New England coast Saturday morning.

Widespread light rain will overspread the southern half of the state during the wee morning hours Friday, continuing into the mid to late morning before pushing off to the east. This will be a cold rain and may even mix with wet snowflakes at times before ending.

This won’t be a huge precipitation producer across central Indiana with most checking in between 0.10″ and 0.25″ (heavier amounts expected across southern Indiana).

Temperatures will slowly fall through the 40s during the daytime Friday. (Yes, we’re talking about May 8th)!

That then sets us up to at least be in position to break the all-time record low for the month of May (28° set in 1966). This will be an airmass with arctic origins and if high pressure can clear us out in time Friday night, overnight lows by Saturday morning are likely to fall into the upper 20s. High resolution guidance takes IND to between 26° and 27° while the European data remains consistent at 28°. Regardless, this will be “rare air” for so late in the season. Those with ag interests should use today to prepare for a hard freeze Friday night into Saturday morning.

Looking ahead, the bulk of the upcoming 7-day period will remain much cooler than average, but there are at least hints of a potential pattern change during the 8-10 day period. The European data is much warmer than the GEFS or new JMA Weeklies that are in-house. Additionally, the teleconnections don’t scream an all-out pattern change. Regardless, a period of moderation would certainly be welcome after this unusually chilly spell. We’ll have much more on this later today with our long range video update. Stay tuned.

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VIDEO: Record Territory; Looking Ahead To Late May…

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