May 2020 archive

June 2020 Outlook: “Transient” Is The Word…

The first month of meteorological summer is here and right on cue, we’re expecting a significantly warmer pattern to emerge. Does that set the tone for the month as a whole? In the words of Lee Corso: “not so fast my friend.”

After a refreshing weekend the first week of June, overall, is expected to be dominated by a MUCH warmer and more humid pattern. This is courtesy of an upper level ridge building east over the region (in response to the MJO moving into Phase 1, along with a strongly positive EPO).

Deeper into the month, it’ll be tough to hold onto this warm, humid regime as the EPO trends negative and the MJO shows signs of rumbling into Phase 2. In the month of June, Phase 2 delivers cooler than normal temperatures into our portion of the country, along with a good chunk of the East.

Sure enough, the latest European computer model is seeing this cooler trend developing by Week 2:

Given the longer range data, there’s reason to believe the cooler than normal temperatures will also be transient (similar to the warmth to open the month). Overall, drier than normal conditions are expected through the first month of meteorological summer. We’ll have to keep close tabs on where the drier pattern sets up as this can “feedback” on itself the deeper into summer we go.

Given the MJO and EPO forecasts, there’s reason to buy into a “transient” pattern that June should dish out. After a drier than normal 1st half of the month, precipitation should average out close to normal by month’s end. The one exception to this will have to do where remnant tropical moisture tracks inland in the Week 2 time period. From this distance, there are 2 camps pertaining to the potential track of soon-to-be Cristobal: TX/ LA coastline or FL panhandle. The next 7-10 days will be interesting. We’d recommend getting used to an ever-changing temperature pattern in the upcoming 3-4 weeks that should balance out close to average for our neck of the woods by month’s end.

Our official June Outlook looks like this:

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/05/31/june-2020-outlook-transient-is-the-word/

VIDEO: Switching Gears In The Week Ahead…

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Weekly #AGwx And #Severe Weather Outlook…

Weekly Highlights:

I. May ends and June opens with well below normal temperatures and humidity levels.

II. Summer pattern emerges during the 2nd half of next week, along with a return of hefty storms.

The upcoming 7-day period will be dominated by 2 distinct patterns: cool & refreshing (now through Tue.) and hot/ sticky (Wed. on). Overall, this will lead to a week that “averages out” close to normal.
While the pattern looks dry overall (and certainly will be up until the middle of next week), there’s the potential of storm clusters diving in from the northwest and providing heavy rain late in the period.
We’re actually more bullish on the precipitation front than what models currently portray. We’re going with a 7-day total between 1”-2” across central Indiana- most of which falls in the Wednesday-Friday time frame.
The Storm Prediction Center doesn’t currently outline a threat of severe weather in the upcoming period. However, that may change as we get closer to the back half of the week.

Forecast Period: 05.30.20 through 06.06.20

Cool, Canadian high pressure will dominate our weekend weather, continuing into early parts of next week. Enjoy the refreshing air while we have it as an upper ridge will expand east, providing a return of warm to hot and muggy weather by the 2nd half of the forecast period. This transition will also be met with the opportunity of “ridge riding” thunderstorm clusters into the Ohio Valley by mid to late week. These clusters will potentially deliver severe wind and heavy rain and the overall threat will certainly warrant our attention as we move through the next couple of days.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/05/30/weekly-agwx-and-severe-weather-outlook-8/

VIDEO: Ready For A Refreshing Change? Discussing Precipitation Chances Next Week…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/05/29/video-ready-for-a-refreshing-change-discussing-precipitation-chances-next-week/

Thursday Morning Rambles: Tropical Air Gets The Boot; Eyeing A Warm Stretch Of Weather Through The 1st Half Of June?

Our short-term weather pattern will be dominated by an upper level low (this morning) and a cold front (tomorrow). High pressure will build into the region over the weekend and help supply gorgeous conditions.

The best opportunity for widespread rain over the next week will take place today as the upper low impacts the region. With a tropical airmass in place, this feature will be able to produce a good soaking for most of central Indiana. Widespread moderate rain this morning will continue for the next few hours before being replaced with more scattered activity during the afternoon/ evening.

Most central Indiana neighborhoods can expect an inch of rain today with locally heavier totals.

The next feature we’ll contend with is the cold front itself and it’s still slated for a Friday passage. Scattered showers and storms will remain possible ahead of the boundary but coverage shouldn’t be nearly as widespread as what we’re seeing this morning. Once the front blows through tomorrow afternoon, much drier and cooler air will arrive and stick around for a few days.

Cool and refreshing Canadian air will arrive just in time for the weekend.

Dry conditions will stick around through the weekend and into early next week to result in perfect weather to get some of those outdoor chores knocked out before the warm, muggy stuff returns.

Speaking of that, as we look ahead, we’ll replace the refreshing air with a return of warmth and humidity during the 2nd half of next week. Note how the European ensemble shows the transition.

The JMA Weeklies (fresh in this morning) also show the warmth that looms through the better part of the 1st half of June.

We’ll have to keep close tabs on exactly where the upper level ridge sets up in the Week 2 time period. This will mean the difference between “splash and dash” storm coverage as the mugginess returns vs. more widespread, organized activity in what would be a northwest flow around the periphery of the ridge. Stay tuned.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/05/28/thursday-morning-rambles-tropical-air-gets-the-boot-eyeing-a-warm-stretch-of-weather-through-the-1st-half-of-june/

VIDEO: Better Short-Term Storm Chances; Meteorological Summer Looms…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/05/27/video-better-short-term-storm-chances-meteorological-summer-looms/

Sticky Now; Big Changes Arrive By The Weekend…

A warm and humid airmass will remain intact through the next 72 hours. Little impulses of energy scooting across the area will be all that’s needed to ignite scattered showers and thunderstorms, but not all will see rain. Due to the moisture content, those that do find themselves under a shower or storm can expect locally heavy totals. Thursday will likely offer up the best chance of more widespread thunderstorm activity.

Friday will continue to offer up scattered showers and thunderstorms courtesy of a cold front moving through the Ohio Valley. Once this front slides south, MUCH drier and cooler air will filter into central Indiana, leading to a fantastic weekend. A northeasterly flow around high pressure will create a much more refreshing feel. Lows in the 40s and highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s are a good bet this weekend.

The cooler, more refreshing air won’t stick around for more than a few days before warmth rebuilds. This is in association with the MJO moving into Phase 1 (a phase favoring widespread warmth across the Lower 48 this time of year). Drier conditions should prevail as temperatures warm early June.

An interesting item to keep tabs on has to do with the potential of tropical “mischief” in the Gulf towards mid-late month. If you have beach plans down to those beautiful Gulf Coast beaches, this is something I’d recommend keeping a close eye on over the next 2-3 weeks. Should something develop, the pattern would favor the central/ eastern Gulf it would appear from this distance.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/05/26/sticky-now-big-changes-arrive-by-the-weekend/

VIDEO: Late Week Cold Front Offers Up Changes…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/05/25/video-late-week-cold-front-offers-up-changes/

VIDEO: Warm And Humid Memorial Day Weekend; Timing Out Features Into Mid-June…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/05/24/video-warm-and-humid-memorial-day-weekend-timing-out-features-into-mid-june/

Weekly #AGwx And #Severe Outlook…

Weekly Highlights:

I. Summer-like pattern arrives for most just in time for the unofficial start to summer.

II. Cold front rumbles in late week with a better chance of organized storms and much cooler air for the weekend.

The upcoming 7-day period will feature above normal temperatures for a change overall. Keep in mind, the period will end cooler but warmth (and humidity) will be the headline for the majority of the week.
Overall, precipitation will run near normal levels for the period, primarily driven by “splash and dash” coverage of storms daily.
We are forecasting between 0.50” and 1” this week on a widespread basis. There will, however, be much higher amounts where slow moving storms track.

Forecast period: 05.24.20 through 05.31.20

The majority of this forecast period will feature a “rinse and repeat” forecast on a daily basis: warm to hot, humid, and daily chances of isolated to widely scattered thunder. The exception will be late week (centered on Friday) as a cold front drops in from the north. This will result in better coverage of thunderstorms along with much cooler air by next weekend (good bet lows fall into the upper 40s by next weekend). Looking ahead to early June looks to continue the “back and forth” theme as we welcome in meteorological summer.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/05/24/weekly-agwx-and-severe-outlook-8/

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