Jan 09
A strong winter storm system will impact a good chunk of the country between today and Sunday morning. More specific to Indiana, rain will begin to overspread the region (initially…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/01/09/video-walking-through-the-specific-details-of-our-incoming-strong-storm/
Jan 08
Type: Heavy Rain
What: Localized flood potential
When: Friday into Saturday
Rain Amounts: 2.5″ to 3.5″ (localized heavier totals)
Wind: Variable 20-30 MPH with gusts to 40 MPH+
The National Weather Service has hoisted Flood Watches across central Indiana in advance of an approaching strong storm system that will present the greatest impacts, locally, in the Friday evening through Saturday morning time period.
Clouds will increase through the day tomorrow (after a sunny start) and light rain will likely follow by evening. Rain will increase in overall coverage and intensity and become heavy at times across central IN Friday morning. We may see a “lull” in the heavy rain Friday evening before widespread moderate to heavy rain returns overnight into Saturday. As things stand this evening, it appears as if the heaviest rainfall amounts will fall from Indianapolis and points west (and north) and the GFS forecast storm total rainfall amounts is our preferred solution this evening- including widespread 2.5″ to 3.5″ totals (locally heavier amounts possible) with this system. Localized flooding will likely result.
Precipitation will exit off to the northeast Saturday afternoon-evening and may end as a “touch” of wet snow across central Indiana (no significant impacts expected from a wintry precipitation standpoint). If traveling north, greater impacts from wintry precipitation can be expected across northern Indiana from a combination of sleet, freezing rain, and snow.
Confidence: High
Next Update: 7a Thursday
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/01/08/client-brief-heavy-rain-arrives-friday-into-saturday/
Jan 08
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/01/08/big-late-week-storm-monitoring-prospects-of-much-colder-temperatures-in-the-8-10-day/
Jan 07
The storm system that will impact the region late this week will really be a precursor of what lies ahead over the upcoming 10-14 days.
Here’s how we envision the ‘mean’ pattern shaping up through the January 20th time period:
This pattern is driven by Phase 5 of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) and, secondarily, by a positive EPO.
Upper air patterns in January typically look like this during MJO Phase 5:
The analog composite above isn’t as strong compared to reality with the northern Plains/ Rockies cold and that’s where things could potentially turn a bit more interesting, locally, once out of Phase 5 (more on this a bit later in the week). As it is, this cold will try to press and as this takes place, resistance from the East Coast ridge will put up a fight. The battle ground will set-up over our neck of the woods and the end result will be an active/ stormy pattern that features “transitional” cold shots. This time of year, even warmest of patterns can present wintry challenges, however. Case in point is this weekend. Personally, I think what will actually take place with respect to the strength and track of the low pressure system will end up being a blend of the intense European and more progressive GFS. It’s going to be mighty tough to drive such an intense low so far northwest, per the Euro- especially considering the placement/ strength of the high to the north.
With that said, this continues to place northern parts of the state under the threat of a wintry mix of snow and freezing rain/ sleet, while central and southern areas deal with flooding rain. If traveling the state Saturday, expect a significant temperature gradient that will result in a difference of as much as 20° within 10 miles in some cases, especially across north-central parts of the state. I think there’s still the chance rain could end as wet snow across central Indiana Saturday PM, but the better chances of accumulating wintry precipitation will likely be to our north.
Locally, the bigger concern at this point has to do with the potential of 2.5″ to 3.5″ of rain with locally heavier amounts. The bulk of this likely falls late Friday night into Saturday morning. Localized flooding is possible and we’ll likely have to begin issuing storm briefs this time tomorrow.
Next up will come storm threats in the 1/14 and 1/16-1/17 time frame…
Stay tuned, friends.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/01/07/dinnertime-rambles-stage-set-for-the-next-couple-weeks/
Jan 07
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/01/07/video-quiet-times-give-way-to-heavy-rain-friday-into-saturday/
Jan 06
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/01/06/long-range-update-and-latest-weekend-thinking/
Jan 06
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/01/06/gearing-up-for-a-busy-late-week-weekend/
Jan 05
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/01/05/video-quiet-open-to-the-week-gives-way-to-a-busy-close/
Jan 04
A highly amplified MJO through Phase 5 will lead to a mean trough across the west with a persistent ridge over the east coast over the next couple of weeks. Week 2 ensemble data correlates almost perfectly with the Phase 5 analog composite (albeit a bit colder in the west).
The end result will be a very active storm track across our portion of the country, sustained cold from the Plains and points west, and sustained warmth along the eastern seaboard. In between, we’ll remain in a transitional time of things with shots of warmth and cold (very “back and forth” regime, locally).
Precipitation will run well above average through 1/20, including periods of heavy rain with storm systems that track through the area.
At times, we’ll need to monitor “waves” that move up along pressing boundaries into the eastern ridge. As cold periodically tries to push, it could present wintry challenges for portions of the Ohio Valley. Our first potential issue with this may present itself late next week.
We’ll have to stay tuned to see if the MJO rumbles into the colder phases or circles back through the warm phases late month. As mentioned last night, it’s also worth keeping tabs on potential Scandinavian ridging down the road.
Fun times ahead.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/01/04/mjo-flexes-its-muscles/
Jan 03
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/01/03/active-pattern-and-2nd-half-of-january-questions/