September 2019 archive

A cold front will sink south across the state this evening. As the front moves through the area, we expect thunderstorms to increase in coverage and intensity across northern Indiana over the next few hours. These storms should push off to the south during the overnight, weakening as they do so. We still aren’t expecting much in the way of widespread severe weather across immediate central Indiana.

Once the front passes, northwest winds will take over during the predawn hours and help push a drier and cooler brand of air south into the region.

Thereafter, get used to unseasonably cool air, to the tune of what we’d normally expect by late September, for the 2nd half of the week- including this weekend. Mostly dry weather is expected to prevail through the period.

As we look ahead to next week, moderating temperatures are expected next Tuesday and Wednesday, including lower to middle 80s. That said, we do have questions if the warmth will have staying power.

We note the MJO “toying around” with the warmer Phase 6 for a time before returning to Phase 5 (a cooler phase this time of year).

Add in the fact that the EPS and GEFS are in disagreement in handling the EPO in the medium term and this results in lower confidence in the overall staying power of the warmth come mid month.

Unfortunately, this time of year, the tools we can really “lean on” for indications of where the longer range pattern will head are limited (compared to late fall through early spring). That’s when we can really focus on the other drivers such as the AO, NAO, PNA, recurving WPAC tropical activity, etc.

As such, while we continue to believe the pattern trends warmer after the cool spell into the weekend, patience is required with respect to the staying power of said warmth…