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May 2018 archive
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/05/11/video-warmth-builds-to-summer-levels-focusing-on-storm-chances/
May 10
Thursday Evening Rambles…
1.) A gorgeous Thursday evening will give way to increasing cloudiness overnight along with isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm coverage into the wee morning hours Friday. The culprit? A warm front lifting north through central Indiana.
2.) Sunshine will develop as the day progresses Friday and we’ll notice an increasingly muggy feel through the afternoon and evening. A true taste of summer can be expected as we put a wrap on the work week, including highs in the middle 80s and dew points climbing into the mid and upper 60s.
Also note the tight temperature gradient across the state. That temperature gradient will serve as the focal point between a mostly dry central Indiana through the first half of the weekend and “busier” times across northern parts of the state into the southern Great Lakes region. Locally heavy rain will fall at times with storms for our friends “up north!” We’ll remain very summer-like here into next week.
3.) Most of the weekend will be rain and storm free across central Indiana with many more dry hours than not. With that said, we’ll monitor for the prospects of a couple rounds of showers and thunderstorms Saturday evening into Sunday.
4.) The balance of next week will run significantly warmer than normal and feature an almost daily threat of showers and thunderstorms. While there will be some “haves and have nots,” most area rain gauges should accumulate 1″ to 2″ of rain by the end of next week.
5.) Speaking of rain, the new European Weeklies in tonight, courtesy of weathermodels.com, also point towards wetter times in our future. This is encouraging as it supports the going idea shown this morning from the JMA Weeklies, CFSv2 Weeklies, and GEFS. Needless to say, despite the recent dry shift, we’re not concerned for long term moisture issues (or lack thereof ;-)).
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/05/10/thursday-evening-rambles-4/
May 09
VIDEO: Late Evening Update On Storms; Looking Ahead Into Next Week…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/05/09/video-late-evening-update-on-storms-looking-ahead-into-next-week/
May 09
Timing Out Storm Chances Tonight…
We continue to monitor things closely for the potential of strong to severe thunderstorms this evening into tonight. As of this morning, we still believe greatest threats of severe weather…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/05/09/timing-out-storm-chances-tonight/
May 08
Attention Shifts To Wednesday Evening…
The Storm Prediction Center has expanded the Slight Risk of severe to encompass more of central Indiana as of the latest update:
Concern is on the increase for the potential of strong to severe thunderstorms to impact central parts of the state Wednesday evening and night. That said, there are questions with how quickly the atmosphere will be able to recover from morning cloudiness and scattered thundershowers.
Forecast radar shows scattered showers and embedded thunder scooting through the state Wednesday morning, especially between the hours of 9a and noon.
Current thinking leans towards a brightening sky through the mid and late afternoon hours which will help destabilize things for potentially a “more significant” event Wednesday evening and night (bracketing the hours of 6p to midnight from west to east).
We note the latest high resolution forecast radar guidance shows rather explosive development as we near the 6 o’clock hour.
Storms are expected to exit off to the east by midnight:
The primary concern that severe thunderstorms may deal central Indiana lies around damaging straight line winds and large hail, however, it should also be noted current parameters also suggest a couple of storms could spawn a tornado.
Bottom line, it’ll be important to keep close tabs on tomorrow’s forecast updates and ensure you have a means of receiving the latest information around watches and warnings that will likely come.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/05/08/attention-shifts-to-wednesday-evening/
May 08
VIDEO: Storms Return Wednesday; Warmth And Humidity Build…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/05/08/video-storms-return-wednesday-warmth-and-humidity-build/
May 07
Quick Evening Notes: Warm Pattern Grabs The Headlines In The Longer Range…
As we look over the 12z long range guidance, we see a common theme: warmer (dare I say “hotter”) than average. Additionally, most data paints a drier than normal trend Days 10-20, as well.
The GEFS shows eastern ridging gaining control during the period which favors a warmer than normal pattern. Consensus of other data is similar in the upper levels.
At the surface, all three major global models agree on warmth in the long range period, including the GEFS, EPS, and CFSv2:
Guidance suggests below average precipitation during the period. With broad scale ridging in place, we agree on a drier theme compared to normal. While trying to put our finger on the flip from the prolonged cold to warmer was difficult to nail down from March and April, May always looked like a drier than average month from several weeks out. (One note is the potential of active times across the Great Lakes region as “sudden summer” gains steam to the south and stubborn chill refuses to let go to our north. The gradient would promote heavier than normal precipitation relative to average).
Given the agreement in the data, along with some additional pattern drivers, we continue to believe the medium to longer term period (including mid and late May) will feature an overall warmer than average pattern along with drier than normal conditions.
More on the short-term in the morning, including what will be a summer-like feel by late week.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/05/07/quick-evening-notes-warm-pattern-grabs-the-headlines-in-the-longer-range/
May 07
VIDEO: Refreshing Open To The Week Gives Way To Building Late Week Humidity…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/05/07/video-refreshing-open-to-the-week-gives-way-to-building-late-week-humidity/
May 06
PM Storms Today; Turning Up The Warmth And Humidity Late Week…
Our morning is off to a gorgeous start, including clear skies and pleasant temperatures! Take the coffee out on the front porch this morning and enjoy!
A cold front currently sits off to our northwest and this will move southeast as we head through the afternoon and evening hours. As the front slides through central Indiana, we’ll forecast scattered showers and thundershowers to develop this afternoon, lasting up to around sunset before diminishing.
Drier and slightly cooler air will build in as we open the new work week. Overnight lows will fall into the mid and upper 40s both Monday and Tuesday mornings. High pressure will supply plentiful sunshine.
A broad southwesterly air flow will return as we progress through the latter stages of the work week and head into next weekend. We’ll certainly notice an uptick in humidity by Thursday and that summer-like feel will remain into the weekend. The increased moisture will also result in periods of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Expect “splash and dash” variety of storms in a daily fashion beginning Wednesday evening.
While scattered storms will be on the radar daily from midweek on, significant widespread rainfall isn’t expected. There will be some locally heavier amounts, but for the most part across central Indiana, 7-day totals won’t exceed three quarters of an inch.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/05/06/pm-storms-today-turning-up-the-warmth-and-humidity-late-week/
May 05
VIDEO: Gusty Storms For Some Sunday; Mid-Late May Warmth…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/05/05/video-gusty-storms-for-some-sunday-mid-late-may-warmth/