March 2017 archive

Mar 18

Weekend Improvements…

Highlights:

  • Chilly Saturday
  • Brighter Sunday
  • Unsettled week ahead

Improving Weekend Weather…The second half of the weekend will most certainly be more pleasant than the way we’re opening up.  Expect mostly cloudy skies with a potential quick-hitting shower, especially from Indianapolis and points northeast through the afternoon hours.  Drier air will then push in this evening and help set-up a very pleasant Sunday.  After a chilly Saturday, lower 50s sure will feel nice with that sunshine Sunday.

Unfortunately, we won’t be able to hang onto the sunny conditions for long.  Clouds increase Monday and evening showers develop.  Tuesday is a transition day and we’ll include mention of showers Tuesday morning before drier, colder air builds south Tuesday night and Wednesday.

A fast transition to a moist southerly flow will greet us for the latter portions of the week and we’ll ramp up shower and thunderstorm chances Thursday PM into Friday as a cold front approaches.  It’ll also be very windy (non-thunderstorm gusts of 40 MPH+).

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″

Our friend, Moe, sent these images from earlier in the week just north of Frankfort.  Despite the unseasonably cold weather we’ve been dealing with, these shots, separated only by a few hours, illustrate the power of that increasingly high March sun angle.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/03/18/weekend-improvements/

Mar 17

Gloomy St. Patrick’s Day Gives Way To A Brighter Weekend…

Highlights:

  • Wet, raw St. Patrick’s Day
  • Brighter weekend ahead
  • Shower chances return next week

Weekend Improvements Ahead…Today won’t be the classic “chamber of commerce” weather day across central Indiana.  A brief wintry mix impacted central and eastern portions of the state earlier this morning and will give way to “showery” weather with blustery conditions and an overall raw feel.  It won’t rain the entire day, but plan on packing the wet weather gear as you venture out to your March Madness and St. Patrick’s Day parties.  Stay safe out there!

Drier times will return for the weekend as high pressure slowly builds overhead.  Saturday will feature a couple of showers- especially across eastern portions of the state through the early afternoon.  However, brighter conditions will develop late in the day and by Sunday, mostly sunny skies will return.  Along with the increasing Sunday sunshine, temperatures will top 50° for the first time since March 8th.

Unfortunately the sunshine won’t last into the early stages of the work week as moisture returns and showers follow Monday into Tuesday.  We’ll turn briefly colder Wednesday before a moist southerly flow returns Thursday with another round of showers.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/03/17/gloomy-st-patricks-day-gives-way-to-a-brighter-weekend/

Mar 16

Thursday Morning Weather Rambles…

1.)  All of a sudden what was a warm March has revered big time.  Officially, Indianapolis is running close to 1° below normal on the month and will continue to fall further once today’s data is factored in.  Always fun to see Mother Nature “balance” things out.

2.)  It’s another cold start to the day with many central Indiana neighborhoods in the teens and hard freezes extending south into Florida this morning.

3.)  Sunshine can be expected today and after the frigid beginning, a moderating trend will begin this afternoon that will send temperatures into the lower to middle 40s.  That’s still close to 10° below average for daytime highs, but will feel much better than what we’ve been dealing with over the past several days.  Add in that high March sun angle and it’ll actually be a very pleasant afternoon.

4.)  Unfortunately, we won’t hang on to the sunshine for St. Patrick’s Day.  A warm front will lift northeast through the region during the overnight and lead to an increase in clouds by evening.  A wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain will impact central IN predawn Friday morning before transitioning to showers mid-to-late morning.  “Light” is the key word here with models suggesting less than 0.20″ total.  By Friday afternoon we’re back to dry times.

5.)  We’ll turn a touch cooler Saturday and it’ll be a blustery day, as well.  A couple of early snow showers are possible across east and northeast portions of the state before afternoon sunshine returns.  High pressure settles in overhead Saturday evening and will set up a nice second half of the weekend- lots of sunshine and milder temperatures by Sunday (lower 50s).

6.)  Looking ahead, the quiet times will be hard to come by as we progress through the latter portions of the month.  Both the new JMA Weeklies (shown below) and other ensemble guidance is bullish on a wetter than average close to the month, and also one that features wild temperature swings.  Thoughts shift back to severe prospects, especially for our friends to our south and the potential of backlash wet snow showers in the colder air.  From a temperature perspective, it’s a pattern that will be very “transient” with no true long-lasting periods of significant warmth, or cold- relative to average.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/03/16/thursday-morning-weather-rambles-4/

Mar 15

In The Deep Freeze…

Highlights:

  • Morning snow showers end
  • Slowly moderating temperatures
  • Wet St. Patrick’s Day
  • Sunshine returns this weekend

Heavy Winter Gear Required…The calendar may say mid-March, but Old Man Winter refuses to go away without having the last word.  To put things into perspective, our forecast high of 32° today is colder than our average low for the 15th (33°)!  To make matters worse, gusty north winds are pushing the wind chill factor into the single digits this morning.  Bundle up!  Moving forward, lake-enhanced snow showers will continue through the morning hours before ending as we progress through the afternoon.

After a cold start Thursday, a moderating trend will develop by afternoon.  Plentiful sunshine should be with us Thursday before clouds increase late in the day in advance of a warm front lifting northeast.  Showers will develop Friday (could begin as a touch of freezing rain, but not expecting problems Thursday night/ early Friday morning), but temperatures will actually reach seasonal levels despite the wet, breezy conditions.

Sunshine returns this weekend and though it’ll be cooler Saturday when compared to St. Patrick’s Day, considering how cold we’ve been of late, it won’t feel that bad. Early morning snow showers will target eastern and northeastern portions of the state before sunshine returns.

The next weather maker will provide showers Monday before we focus in on the middle of next week with potential of a more significant storm to deal with…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: Dusting
  • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 0.75″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/03/15/in-the-deep-freeze/

Mar 14

Quiet Start Gives Way To Localized Snow Squalls This Afternoon…

Tuesday is off to a frigid, but quiet start to the day.  Temperatures are in the upper 10s for most central Indiana neighborhoods with sunshine to start the day.  Gusty north winds are putting our wind chills into the single digits this morning.

As we progress through the afternoon hours, clouds will increase and scattered snow showers will develop.  Highs will remain below freezing today- generally in the upper 20s to around 30.

With very cold air aloft, a lobe of upper level energy, and some lake enhancement, scattered snow showers will develop this afternoon and continue into the evening hours.  Additionally, snow squall parameters are high and locally intense bursts of snow can also be expected as we move through the afternoon and evening hours.  These won’t impact everyone, but where they do occur, expect rapidly reduced visibility and a quick accumulation.  Forecast radar shows this potential as we move into the afternoon hours, with a couple of lake effect streamers continuing Wednesday morning.

Forecast radar 5p.

Forecast radar 3a.

Wednesday will be another frigid day, especially by March standards.  We’ll focus in on the morning hours for the most widespread snow shower activity with quieter times expected as we move through the day.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/03/14/quiet-start-gives-way-to-localized-snow-squalls-this-afternoon/

Mar 13

A Wintry Week…

Highlights:

  • Snow develops
  • Bitterly cold air for March
  • St. Patrick’s Day showers

Snow Develops…Drier air is “eating away” at the snow shield as it attempts to advance eastward this morning.  Eventually, we’ll moisten the atmosphere up enough to allow snow to push into the greater Indianapolis region by late morning.  Snow will accumulate this morning, but marginal temperatures, that high March sun angle, and the fact most of the snow will be falling during the afternoon, we don’t anticipate accumulation issues this afternoon.  Reinforcing cold air will filter back into the region tonight and last through mid week.  With this late season arctic air, additional snow showers and embedded heavier squalls will continue.  With all of that said, we don’t have any changes to our ongoing accumulation forecast.  Expect an inch, or less, for the city, itself, increasing to 2″-5″ for north-central Indiana (where lake effect will add to the totals) for storm totals through Wednesday.

Dry conditions return late Wednesday and Thursday, but the cold will continue.  Our next storm system arrives on the scene St. Patrick’s Day and with blustery, chilly conditions in place, showers added to the mix will feature “raw” weather conditions.  As it stands now, we are going with a more optimistic approach for the weekend, including a dry forecast with increasing sunshine.  After the cold week ahead, we will have earned it!

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 1″ – 2″
  • Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.50″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/03/13/a-wintry-week/

Mar 12

Work Week Opens Snowy…

Highlights:

  • Unseasonably cold
  • Snowy Monday
  • Cold week ahead

Sunny, But Cold…We may have sprung forward overnight, but Mother Nature can have a mind of her own.  Despite gaining an extra hour of daylight in the evening, temperatures will feel more like the dead of winter this week.  With the cold air comes snow chances, as well…

A frigid start to the day is at least accompanied by wall-to-wall sunshine, however, clouds will increase as we progress through the afternoon and evening hours.  Eventually those clouds will lower and thicken and give way to snow overspreading the state from west to east during the predawn hours Monday.  With marginally cold temperatures during the daytime Monday, we don’t anticipate big travel problems for most of central Indiana.  That said, if your travels take you north, prepare for slick travel as a “plowable” snow falls for our neighbors across northern Indiana.  As it stands now, we forecast generally an inch, or less, for the city, itself, Monday morning before melting occurs during the daytime.  As colder air pours into the state Monday evening, an additional dusting to coating is possible in spots through central Indiana as scattered snow showers and heavier bursts continue into midweek.  As mentioned, further north, several inches of snow (2″-5″) will fall for places like Lafayette, Kokomo, Marion and points north.  Perhaps an even bigger story will be the cold that follows the early-week snow.  Lows will fall into the middle teens for many central Indiana neighborhoods Wednesday and Thursday morning.

Looking ahead, confidence remains low in the late week forecast.  That fast-moving northwest flow aloft can (and will) wreck havoc on model solutions and fine tuning will be required as we progress through the week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 1″ – 3″
  • Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.40″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/03/12/work-week-opens-snowy/

Mar 11

Winter Finally Shows Up…

Highlights:

  • Much colder than average
  • Snow prospects to open the week
  • Busy pattern continues

Locked In A Cold Pattern…The stretch of spring-like, unseasonably warm, conditions we enjoyed through most of February and to open March will be all but a distant memory once to this time next week.  A major reversal to a colder than normal pattern is now with us and will feature lows into the teens on a few nights over the upcoming week.

Additionally, we continue to highlight the fast-moving northwest flow aloft.  This kind of regime wrecks havoc on forecast models and, accordingly, we have lower than normal confidence in the specifics late in the work week.  Stay tuned.

Before we get to late week, we have a disturbance (that will eventually help feed a blockbuster Nor Easter) that will deliver snow as we open up the work week.  This time of year, snow intensity and time of day mean a world of difference between an accumulating event, or not.  Snow should overspread central Indiana before sunrise Monday and will likely accumulate before the higher sun angle takes over and lighter snowfall rates result in a lack of daytime accumulation.  As reinforcing cold air filters in Monday night, additional light accumulation will be possible in scattered heavier snow showers that will continue into Tuesday.  All-in-all, this doesn’t appear to be a huge event, but a few slick spots will be possible Monday morning before that higher March sun angle gets to work.  We’ll keep a close eye on things.

Moving forward, we’re confident on the overall colder than normal pattern that will continue into Saint Patrick’s Day, but, as mentioned above, fine tuning will be required with the potential of a late week storm system to contend with.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 1″ – 3″
  • Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.50″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/03/11/winter-finally-shows-up/

Mar 10

Extended Period Of Unseasonably Cold Air…

Today will begin a rather extended period of unseasonably chilly air that will grip the region.  It’s not until the latter portions of next week that we should begin to see slowly moderating temperatures.

The reason for this is a persistent trough setting up over the Great Lakes and eastern portions of the country.  From time to time, individual disturbances will come racing along in the fast northwest flow aloft and help to reinforce the cold and also create snow potential.

Forecast models continue to show an eastern trough into the middle parts of next week.

 

This is an impressively cold pattern for so late in the season.

This is the type pattern that will promote multiple nights in the teens over the upcoming week.  We forecast coldest nights to be Saturday night, Sunday night, Wednesday night, and Thursday night.  Each has the potential to send neighborhoods into the middle-upper teens.

As far as snow goes, we still are keeping an eye on the early stages of the work week.  We’ll fine tune things this weekend, but models continue to show energy diving southeast Monday that would help snow overspread the region during the day, continuing into Tuesday morning.  This time of year, snowfall rates and time of day means a world of difference between snow flying in the air, versus accumulating.  The potential is there for light accumulation Monday night as reinforcing cold air pours in.

Stay tuned!  Much more later!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/03/10/extended-period-of-unseasonably-cold-air/

Mar 09

Enjoy Today; Winter Returns…

Highlights:

  • Spring-like feel today
  • Much colder pattern developing
  • Accumulating snow early next week?

Colder Pattern Taking Hold…The day is dawning bright and sunshine will be with us through the majority of the day, along with pleasant, spring-like temperatures.  Find a way to get out and enjoy it!  Unfortunately, the pleasant weather will end tonight.

Clouds will increase late in the day and give way to showers during the nighttime period.  A cold front will press south and pull much colder air into the region as we wrap up the work week and head into the weekend.  The suppressed route is still the one most likely for the weekend system and instead we’re left with an unseasonably cold, mostly dry forecast, locally.  We’ll still be on the watch for the potential of some light snow early Saturday, but the more significant, accumulating snow will be shoved south to the TN Valley.  Those beautiful northeast TN and western NC mountains look to be in the “sweet spot” for this storm (plowable accumulations).

Another storm system will track through the Mid West as we close the weekend and open next week.  Consequently, clouds increase late in the day Sunday and snow should overspread the region Monday.  Reinforcing cold air will arrive Tuesday with snow showers and gusty winds.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 1″ – 3″
  • Rainfall: 0.10″ – 0.20″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/03/09/enjoy-today-winter-returns/

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