Oct 13
This post is coming to you from the beautiful sandy shores of the Florida panhandle. As a result, posts will be a bit erratic over the next week, or so,…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/sunday-thoughts-from-the-gulf/
Oct 10
Updated 10.11.13 @ 6:45a
Zionsville, IN I, like many of you, make sure to enjoy the last of the warm, sunny weather this time of year. As veteran Hoosiers know, the months ahead present a cloudy, bitterly cold, and windy time of things. Thankfully, we have another gorgeous day lined up to close the work week. We discuss this and busier times ahead below!
Friday: Partly cloudy; 48/ 76
It’s only fitting that we close out the work week with the same type of weather we’ve enjoyed all week long- a cool start followed by beautiful weather conditions through the afternoon. Get outside and spend some time soaking up the sunshine!
Saturday: Mostly cloudy; scattered evening/ nighttime shower; 0.10″ or less; 50/ 76
Most of your daytime Saturday will provide pleasant weather to get some of those last minute chores taken care of. We’ll notice an increase in our cloud cover followed by a broken line of showers (perhaps a rumble of thunder) rolling through the state from west to east. We’re not looking at significant rainfall with this system. In fact, we think most communities pick up less than one tenth of an inch of rain (if that).
Sunday: Partly cloudy; 55/ 70
While some of our extreme eastern counties may see an AM shower Sunday, most of the day will be rain-free and feature increasing sunshine. It’ll be another pleasant day for outdoor activities.
Monday: Partly cloudy; 45/ 69
High pressure and an associated northerly air flow will dominate our weather to begin the new work week. North breezes may gust upwards of 15 MPH Monday and this will help keep us cooler than the weekend. We’ll start the day quite chilly (middle 40s for most) before warming into the upper 60s.
Tuesday: Increasing cloudiness, PM shower; 0.10″; 54/ 73
While we have some timing issues to work out as we draw closer to the event (GFS is more progressive whereas the ECMWF is slower), we’ll go ahead and introduce shower chances to your forecast as early as Tuesday evening. Stay tuned as we fine tune things.
Wednesday: Rain; 0.50″; 49/ 64
As of now, we see a cold front moving through the region Wednesday. Ahead of the front, showers and possibly a thunderstorm will blow through the region. Our winds will shift to the northwest Wednesday night/ Thursday, helping drive the coldest air so far this season into the Hoosier state Wednesday night and Thursday.
Thursday: Rain; 0.50″; 44/ 57
Again, as we posted above, timing is everything with our mid to late week cold front. Overnight model data places a heavier corridor of rain through central Indiana mid week- potentially as much as 1″-1.25″ over the two day period.
We also want to continue pointing out that with the PNA shifting back into the positive, the stage is set for chilly air to hang around the region with more “staying power” as we move through October’s second half. We’ve covered this in posts below and will continue to go over things as we move forward… It’s time to certainly pull out those coats! 🙂
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/friday-forecast-busier-times-ahead-in-the-good-ole-forecast-office/
Oct 10
After an unseasonably cool summer, the pattern flipped to a warmer regime during the month of September. That same warm pattern continues presently, but are changes brewing?
We note the PNA (Pacific North American pattern) is trending positive and this could help promote more of a sustained trough and associated cooler than normal pattern to wrap up October. Would it be enough to offset the very warm first half of October? Too early to tell. However, I will say that with the PNA trending positive, it does suggest we’ll be looking at more sustained chilly conditions, as opposed to the “in and out” flirtations of cool air as of late.
The GEFS suggests a trough sets up shop across the eastern part of the country for the back half of October.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/changes-brewing/
Oct 09
Updated 10.09.13 @ 5:00p
Zionsville, IN Our stretch of beautiful early fall weather will continue as we wrap up the work week and head into the weekend. Latest model runs are looking less and less impressive on rain chances Sunday (very light amounts), but we do have more significant weather to discuss in the longer term…
Thursday through Saturday: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy; upper 40s, middle 70s Thursday and Friday and upper 70s Saturday.
High pressure will remain in firm control of our weather pattern to wrap up the work week and head into another weekend. This means our “uneventful” weather will remain with mostly sunny skies Thursday and Friday, giving way to partly cloudy conditions Saturday. While overnight lows will remain pleasantly cool, daytime highs will continue to moderate, eventually reaching the upper 70s by Saturday.
Sunday: Scattered shower; 0.10″; 58/ 74
Latest model runs continue to look less and less impressive in terms of potential rainfall Sunday. While a broken line of light showers will press their way through the region, we’re certainly not looking at any sort of significant rainfall. Simply put, the moisture return just isn’t that significant ahead of the advancing cold front. Most of your Sunday will remain dry with just a quick scattered shower expected at this point.
Monday: Partly cloudy; 54/ 70
There’s currently a pretty big spread in forecast temperatures to kick off the new work week. Case in point, the European model suggests we’re looking at a dry day with sunshine, helping to push the thermometer into the lower 70s. The GFS says it’ll have “none of that” as it keeps us in the lower 60s with lots of clouds and showers around. For now, we’ll side with more of the European solution, with a mainly dry day and highs reaching the 70 degree mark. Stay tuned.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy; scattered shower; 0.10″; 55/ 72
Our next storm system will advance towards the region by the middle of next week. While we still have to work out timing and track involved with this system, we think southerly winds transport enough low level moisture northward to help spark a scattered shower as early as Tuesday afternoon.
Wednesday: Showers and T-storms; 0.50″, 51/ 62
At this distance, it appears as if the primary energy source (surface low) will track too far north and west of the region to result in significant severe weather, but we’ll still expect showers and thunderstorms to become likely Wednesday, especially directly related to the frontal passage. Model data suggests heaviest rainfall totals fall across northern portions of the state, but with this being a week out, we’ll continue to monitor for any potential shift in the track of the low.
A MUCH colder air mass will pour into the region late next week, resulting in the coldest temperatures so far this fall season…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/thursday-forecast-beautiful-weather-continues-for-now/
Oct 08
Forecast models continue to hint at the potential of our next significant storm system slated for a mid month arrival. Latest data, hot off the press, remains in general agreement on the way things evolve, but details on timing and any heavy rain/ severe threat will have to be fine tuned as we move forward.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/wednesday-evening-forecast-update/
