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One More Mild Day; Old Man Winter Is Knocking On The Door…

Screen Shot 2017-01-24 at 9.49.46 PMHighlights:

  • Hold on to your hats
  • Cold air returns
  • Extended period of scattered snow showers; squall potential

Changes Brewing…Wednesday will feature more of the same mild weather we’ve come to know and enjoy across the Mid West over the past couple of weeks.  Despite the mild air, a storm system will result in scattered showers for our hump day, along with very windy conditions.  Gusts of 40 MPH will be common across central IN.

Temperatures will fall late Wednesday and Old Man Winter is set to make up for lost time as we progress through the back half of the work week and on into the weekend.  In addition, fast-moving upper level energy will push southeast in the active northwest flow aloft.  Scattered snow showers will result, along with localized embedded heavier squalls.  It certainly won’t snow the entire time, but passing snow showers will be a good bet from time to time Thursday through Sunday.

Our wintry pattern will relax briefly early next week, but renewed cold air appears poised to blow into town the middle of next week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: Dusting – 1″ (local 2″ amounts possible)
  • Rainfall: 0.10″ – 0.25″
1 Comment 7-Day Outlook, Arctic Cold, Forecast, Rain, snow, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Windy

Winter Returns…

January got off to a frigid start.  Remember this coast-to-coast cold, including sub-zero temperatures across central IN, during the first week of the month?

t0-1024x818After the past week to ten days, that frigid open to the month seems like forever ago!  The past 7-10 days has featured a significant January thaw, and temperatures now, MTD, are warmer than average across the Ohio Valley.  Warmest anomalies can be found across the southeast region.

conus_mtd_t2max_anom_2017That said, the pattern is shifting back to winter for the last week of the month and while the duration, longer-term, can be argued, the next 2-3 weeks appear to offer an opportunity to play “catch up” in both the snow and cold departments.  Note the developing eastern troughiness.  This will bring colder air back into the east as we close January and open February.  The GFS ensembles, courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com, also develops an interesting “blocky” look towards the end of the period in Week 2.  Should this verify, it would lead to a better chance of the cold, active pattern locking in.

GEFS2wk12417
You’re corresponding temperature anomalies show the shift back to a colder than normal regime.

Days 2-6
Days 2-6
Days 4-8
Days 4-8
Days 6-10
Days 6-10
Days 12-16
Days 12-16

A fast northwest flow will also result in multiple “pieces” of energy rotating southeast and we’ll forecast a period of snow showers by mid and late week, continuing into the weekend.  There’s the chance of a stronger clipper system sometime in the Sunday-Tuesday time frame that we’ll have to keep a close eye on.  We want to stress that global modeling will struggle with the specifics (timing and strength) of these clipper systems until within a couple days.

Longer term, while confidence is high on the evolution to a cold, wintry regime through the medium range, the longevity and sustainability of the cold is in question.  For instance, by Day 10 (as the GFS continues to drill cold into the region), the European ensembles are much less impressed and suggest the overall transient pattern we’ve dealt with for the balance of the winter continues:

ecmwf-ens_z500aNorm_namer_11

ecmwf-ens_T850a_namer_11Thinking here at IndyWx.com believes the European is likely rushing the warmer central look.  Time will tell…

**We do note the NEW European Weeklies lock a period of cold into the east from mid-February through early March, including a stormy (snowy) look.  Will Old Man Winter have the final say?

Updated 7-day later this evening!

No Comments Ensemble Discussion, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, January Thaw, snow, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Weather Rambles

Foggy Start; Winter Returns…

Screen Shot 2017-01-23 at 7.15.25 AMHighlights:

  • Dense fog this morning
  • Turning much colder this week
  • Scattered snow showers late week

Low Beams On…Dense fog engulfs most of central IN this morning.  Make sure you have the low beams on this morning as you head off to work and school and allow extra time.  A shower is possible at any point today, but particularly across the eastern half of the state.

Our next storm system will push through mid week.  Southwest winds will increase Wednesday and scattered showers will accompany a cold front moving through the state.  Temperatures will fall Wednesday night into Thursday and scattered snow showers will develop.

The theme late in the week and for the weekend will be a wintry one.  Upper level energy will interact with the colder conditions and result in scattered snow showers from time to time into the weekend.  The active northwest flow will remain into next week, as well, and we’ll have to keep a close eye for the prospects of a more “robust” clipper impacting the region just beyond this forecast period.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: Dusting – 1″
  • Rainfall: 0.10″ – 0.25″
No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Fog, Forecast, Rain, snow, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Windy

Spring-Like Weekend, But Changes Loom…

Screen Shot 2017-01-20 at 10.25.29 PMHighlights:

  • Spring-like weekend
  • Unsettled times continue
  • Winter returns

Rare January White Leg Alert…The big news this weekend will be temperatures close to 30 degrees above normal and a legitimate spring feel.  Average highs across central IN this time of year are in the middle 30s and temperatures this afternoon will zoom to the lower-middle 60s.  Patchy morning fog and drizzle will be with us, but we’re remaining optimistic we could squeeze a couple of looks at the sun during the day.  Count yourself lucky if you do, indeed, see that weird giant bright thing in the sky! 😉

A developing storm system will track east across the central Plains and into the TN Valley this weekend.  This will result in a significant severe weather outbreak across the south and increasing rain chances here for the back half of the weekend.  The magnitude of the rain and potential embedded storms remains in question, but shower chances will at least be on the increase Sunday afternoon into the evening.  We note short-term, higher resolution modeling hitting the locally heavy rain threat harder than global data early this morning (centered on Sunday evening) and we’ll keep a close eye on things as most central IN communities remain waterlogged.  Winds will increase Monday- NE shifting to the N and gusts to 40 MPH with leftover showers continuing.

Tuesday will present a bit of a break in our active pattern before a fast-moving cold front blows into town Wednesday with scattered showers amidst blustery conditions.

We turn colder (you knew this incredibly mild pattern had to break at some point) late week and upper level energy will help ignite snow showers with the return of the wintry feel Thursday into Friday.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: Dusting – 1″
  • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 0.75″
No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Forecast, Forecast Models, January Thaw, Rain, snow, Spring, T-storms, Unseasonably Warm, Windy