Hold On To Your Hat; Accumulating Weekend Snow?

Screen Shot 2017-01-31 at 8.07.29 AM Highlights:

Windy Tuesday
Scattered flurries; snow showers tonight-Wednesday AM
Accumulating weekend snow?

Bumpy Ride…Wind will be the big weather item today as a clipper low passes to our north. Gusty west breezes will reach 30 MPH at times. Otherwise, it’ll be a mild day as highs reach the lower 40s. Cooler air will arrive tonight and will promote the chance of a passing flurry or scattered snow shower into Wednesday morning.

We’ll close the week with cold and dry conditions, including highs below freezing both Thursday and Friday.

As we move into the upcoming weekend, a storm system will attack the lingering cold air and this will allow for a period of snow to develop Saturday night into Sunday morning. We still have time to monitor this event, but as of now this appears to be a relatively weak, flatter wave and “light” is the key word to describe the snow intensity Saturday night into Sunday morning.

Models want to drive a more significant storm system to our northwest early next week. What’s new this winter? A windy warm-up would result, including heavier rains late Monday into Tuesday.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

Snowfall: 1″ – 2″
Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.50″

Bill McMillan January 31, 2017 No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Forecast, Rain, snow, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Windy

Sunday Morning Rambles…

1.) Our fast-moving NW flow continues today. Snow showers and localized heavier squalls will increase later this afternoon and evening as another upper level disturbance moves through. This won’t be a “uniform” event, but if driving please plan on rapidly reduced visibilities within the heavier squalls.

2.) Overall, the upcoming week looks chilly, but relatively dry. Fast-moving disturbances can be a pain for modeling and “last minute” corrections can take place, but consistency on the next storm system tracking north of the region Monday evening and Tuesday morning continues. We’ll note a gusty wind during this time frame (30-40 MPH gusts), but don’t foresee significant precipitation across central parts of the state.

3.) There’s the chance for snow showers midweek, but our attention will shift to the prospects of a “more meaningful” event next weekend. With this being a storm we’re watching for the day 7 period, confidence is low and specifics vary greatly. Stay tuned this week as we fine tune the details. Just know from this distance, an accumulating event is possible.

4.) The last couple of weeks has featured an impressive January “thaw.” We note the blow torch regime of the past week across the central and east below.

See the shift back to winter, especially across the northern tier as we close January and flip the calendar into February.

The GEFS is bullish on the cold growing stronger as we progress through the first half of February.

Bill McMillan January 29, 2017 No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, snow, Unseasonably Cool Weather

Wintry Weekend; Accumulating Snow Sunday…

Screen Shot 2017-01-27 at 4.59.51 PM Highlights:

Wintry weekend
More widespread snow Sunday
Reinforcing cold next week

Scattered Snow Showers Turns To Steadier Snow Sunday…Upper level energy will continue to track across the region this weekend, setting off periods of snow showers and embedded heavier squalls (case in point this evening). The strongest upper level energy will pass Sunday evening and the result should be a period of more widespread snow Sunday- especially in the afternoon and evening. A light accumulation (1″-2″ potential) is possible.

The new work week will begin with early flurries Monday and then we’ll kick in a strong and gusty southwest wind Monday night, continuing into Tuesday. We’ll turn milder briefly Tuesday, but strong winds will remain. We’ll continue to monitor the Tuesday night-Wednesday morning period as some modeling wants to deliver a round of light snow with the reinforcing chill. We’ll give it another round of model runs, but we may need to hit snow a little harder in the Tuesday night period.

Another disturbance will race through the region Thursday with snow showers and then we’ll eye the potential of a stronger system next weekend…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

Snowfall: 1″ – 3″
Rainfall: 0.00″

Bill McMillan January 27, 2017 No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Forecast, snow, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Windy

Snow Returns To The Forecast…

Screen Shot 2017-01-25 at 9.34.13 PM Highlights:

Prolonged period of scattered snow showers
Much colder and windy
Winter returns

Scattered Snow Showers; Steadier Snow Sunday? Let’s cut right to the point: The January “thaw” is over. Yes, it was nice while it lasted, but we all knew it couldn’t continue (right?)! 😉

A much colder brand of air will be with us as we close the work week and head into the weekend. Additionally, upper level energy will keep periods of snow showers in our forecast. A more vigorous piece of upper level energy will push southeast to close the weekend and this should create more widespread snow showers. We’ll “enjoy” a colder and blustery weekend.

As the dawn of a new work week arrives, the weather will slowly improve. Colder than normal conditions will remain, but we’ll return to dry conditions Monday.

Our next system will pass Tuesday with gusty winds and colder air for mid week, complete with a return of snow showers.

Looking for potential of “more significant” snow? That may loom just past the current forecast period…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

Snowfall: 1″ – 2″
Rainfall: 0.00″

Bill McMillan January 25, 2017 No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Forecast, snow, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Windy

Wednesday Morning Weather Brief…

Your complete weekly discussion can be found in the post below from last night, but here’s a recap of our current 7-day:

Screen Shot 2017-01-24 at 9.49.46 PM Showers will expand in overall coverage as we progress through the late morning hours, but shouldn’t amount to much (0.10″ for a few neighborhoods). We return to a drier theme this afternoon.

A mild and windy afternoon is ahead, including gusts close to 40 MPH and highs in the lower-middle 50s.

Colder air will return tonight and remain in place through the second half of the work week, including the upcoming weekend. Temperatures will grow cold enough Thursday morning for scattered snow showers.

Upper level energy will keep scattered snow showers going late week and on into the weekend. Models can struggle on timing and specifics of the pieces of energy and we’ll keep an eye on things into the weekend. Potential is present for a more “robust” clipper Sunday that could yield better coverage of steady snow showers.

gfs_namer_106_500_vort_ht_s Longer term, the GFS ensemble continues to show the cold growing deeper and stronger for the region as we progress into early February. Winter is far from over.