Category Archives: Winter Storm

Saturday Morning Rambles…

1.) Coast-to-coast cold:  The Lower 48 is waking up in an ice box this morning as widespread arctic air and below normal temperatures engulf the country (minus the FL peninsula this morning).  The arctic express will remain with us through the weekend, including temperatures once again tonight that threaten to dip into the sub-zero range across central Indiana.  Highs today will only reach the middle 10s and upper 10s to lower 20s Sunday.  Bundle up and stay warm.

t02.) Expanding Snowpack:  65.4% of the country is covered in snow this morning.  The cold, arctic high suppressed the winter storm threat south as we alluded to in previous posts.  Places across the Deep South that aren’t used to wintry precipitation are waking up to snowy and icy conditions this morning, including MS, AL, GA, SC, and into the Mid Atlantic.  Heavier snowfall accumulated across east TN, including 5″-8″ in the high country.  Heavy snow also fell through western and central NC and Blizzard Warnings are up in rare areas including VA Beach this morning.

nsm_depth_2017010705_national3.) Moderating Temperatures:  Our air flow will back around to the southwest and this will help temperatures begin to moderate early next week (around freezing Monday and all the way to around 50 Tuesday).  As the moderating trend gets underway, we may have to deal with a brief period of freezing drizzle/ freezing rain Monday evening.

gfs_ptype_slp_conus2_134.) Rainy Midweek:  A more significant surge of moisture will arrive midweek and result in periods of moderate to heavy rain Wednesday PM into Thursday.  Potential is present for 1″+ during this timeframe.

gfs_pwat_conus2_245.)  Weekend Wintry “Fun And Games?”  A tremendous battle will take place next weekend between a strong and sprawling arctic high pressure system and the southeast ridge.  In between it’ll be fascinating to watch things unfold, and as you’d imagine, that includes Indiana.  Despite the southeast ridge flexing it’s muscle, the concern here is that the shallow dense arctic air will “ooze” south and present an icy set-up for portions of the Ohio Valley and Mid West for the weekend.  We still have some time to watch this, but the potential of significant icing is very much present for some and this will require a close eye through the week.

gfs_t2m_a_f_conus2_31

Arctic Cold, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Freezing Rain, Rain, snow, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Winter Storm, Wintry Mix

Bitter Weekend; Changeable Weather Next Week…

screen-shot-2017-01-06-at-6-33-47-pmHighlights:

  • Bitterly cold weekend
  • Big shift in temperatures next week
  • Icy set-up late next week?

Heavy Winter Gear Required…We’ll watch a significant winter storm impact the southern states this weekend with heavy snow and ice accumulations.  Here on the home-front, expect bitterly cold conditions with dry skies.  Clouds tonight should keep most areas around zero.  That’s frigid in and of itself, but should skies clear, temperatures will easily fall below zero.  Very cold conditions remain Sunday.

We’ll back our air flow around to the southwest early next week and this will help give temperatures a big boost by the mid week period.  Gusty southwest winds and showers will be with us, as well.

A complex weather pattern will set up to close out the week.  The clash of air masses between a sprawling strong arctic high and an equally impressive southeast ridge will be fun to watch, but not to forecast.  It’s very possible unseasonably warm conditions of Thursday give way to much colder weather going into next weekend as the arctic high helps “ooze” dense, shallow, cold air south.  At the same time, waves of low pressure will move along the pressing arctic front and periods of heavy precipitation will result.  Conditions should grow cold enough by Friday into Saturday for the precipitation to fall as an icy mixture of sleet and freezing rain across portions of central Indiana.  Stay tuned.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall:  Trace
  • Rainfall:  1.50″ – 2.50″
7-Day Outlook, Arctic Cold, Forecast, Freezing Rain, Rain, Sleet, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Winter Storm

12.23.16 Ensemble Discussion On The 6-10 Day…

*A fresh 7-day will be updated late tonight or early Christmas Eve.*

Modeling continues to suggest a colder return looms as we close out 2016 and open 2017.  We’ve discussed the implications of a negative EPO and it certainly appears as if, at least initially, the negative EPO will do the “dirty work” to drive a colder regime in the 6-10 day period.

gefs_epo_12

epoold_neg_12decWe note ensemble data is suggesting high latitude blocking tries to develop towards Day 10.  Recall this was the missing ingredient in the bitterly cold blasts of air that occurred during the first few weeks of December.  Both the GEFS and EPS agree on the increasingly blocky look to the pattern by Day 10.  This would help drive a cold, stormy pattern by early January.  Instead of storms cutting, we would see more suppression.  With a “stubborn” southeast ridge, things could get interesting across the Ohio Valley from a wintry perspective….

gefs12z122316

eps12z122316We don’t want to jump the gun, but it the positives can “hook up” over the pole, we stand the chance of locking into a rather lengthy cold, snowy regime as we rumble deeper into the heart of winter.

Given the look, it’s no surprise we see the 12z teleconnections want to continue the trend of a negative look to the NAO and AO in the medium to longer term.

12zeuronao122316

12zeuroao122316Summary:  A rather mild regime remains as we rumble through Christmas before trending more seasonable next week.  From a wintry perspective we need to continue to keep an eye on the period around New Year’s Eve/ Day.  Confidence continues to increase on the potential of a return of arctic air come early January.

10-day, Arctic Cold, Christmas/ Thanksgiving, Client, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Winter Storm

Busy Winter Pattern Continues…

screen-shot-2016-12-10-at-8-24-08-amHighlights:

  • Snow arrives tonight for central; northern parts of the state
  • Even colder air coming
  • Pattern of storms and rumors of storms

Snow Develops Tonight…Today is mostly dry and cold, including a mostly cloudy sky.  Clouds will lower and thicken this afternoon and give way to light snow late tonight across north-central Indiana and points north.  As milder air is pulled north Sunday, snow will transition to a wintry mix and eventually a cold light rain across central Indiana.  Further north, this will remain mostly snow before transitioning to a wintry mix.  Precipitation will end for everyone Sunday night.

Here’s the current thinking on storm total snowfall with this event. (Click to enlarge).

snowfallmap121116We’ll open the work week with dry and cold conditions, but all eyes will be on the next arctic front by this time.  It’ll blast through here the middle of the week with even colder air than what we’re currently “enjoying.” 🙂  Expect sub-zero wind chills mid week.  Snow showers and gusty winds remain in the mid week forecast and will require fine tuning as we draw closer.  A quick note, medium range modeling and beyond will really struggle in run-to-run consistency with such a pattern.  The slightest difference in handling respected upper air energy will lead to dramatic changes in the sensible weather the modeling paints.  There’s no sense in changing the forecast daily (or, in some cases, multiple times per day, only to change it back to where we began as time draws closer).

Finally, yet another winter weather maker awaits for the end of the week.  Clouds will be on the increase Friday with snow (or a wintry mix) developing at night.  It’s a busy, cold pattern…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 1″ – 3″
  • Rainfall: 0.10″ – 0.25″
7-Day Outlook, Arctic Cold, Forecast, Rain, snow, Winter Storm, Wintry Mix