Feb 12
Snow showers will continue across central Indiana this morning before things become more isolated and focus on one or two lake effect snow bands. We target north and northeastern areas…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/02/12/air-has-a-bite-to-it/
Feb 11
A one-two shot of arctic air will bring dangerous wind chills and snow squalls Thursday and again Saturday. Perhaps a bigger storm looms early next week…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/02/11/wednesday-evening-video-update-talk-of-arctic-air-snow/
Feb 11
Arctic Air And Snow Chances…Today will be the best day of the upcoming seven days, but caution as an arctic front slams into the region late tonight and early Thursday with bitter cold, strong and gusty winds, and scattered snow showers. Tomorrow will feel nasty with sub-zero wind chills continuing through the day.
Friday will feature dry and cold conditions and we’ll eye Friday night/ early Saturday for the second, and more intense, arctic surge. Temperatures will fall through the day, winds will be strong, and snow showers will be around the region. We also note some localized lake effect is possible with both arctic surges and targets northeast and east-central portions of the state for potential lake effect enhancement. Saturday wind chill values will be 20 to 25 degrees below zero.
Sunday will be dry and cold, but by this time all eyes will be on a winter storm developing to our southwest. Forecast models vary between a moderate to a significant winter storm and this will require a close eye and fine tuning in the days ahead.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/02/11/arctic-air-waiting-on-deck/
Feb 10
The well-advertised one-two shot of bitterly cold arctic air will arrive mid week into the weekend. Dangerous wind chills and snow squalls will accompany each surge of arctic air. As…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/02/10/tuesday-evening-video-update-cold-and-opportunities-for-snow/
Feb 10
A one-two punch of arctic air will drive through central Indiana in the Wednesday night through Saturday time frame. Snow showers and embedded squalls will be possible with both and…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/02/10/1-2-punch-of-arctic-air-this-week-watching-the-southern-branch-next-week/
Feb 09
Lots Of Winter Ahead…After a brief weekend thaw, winter’s set to roar back with authority this week. Morning freezing drizzle and freezing fog should diminish and give way to a mostly cloudy day. It’ll be much colder than what we enjoyed over the weekend as temperatures hold nearly steady through the day.
Sunshine returns briefly Tuesday, but another fast-moving weather disturbance will bring a light rain shower Wednesday. As a shot of arctic air drills in here Wednesday night and Thursday, snow showers will blow into town with gusty winds.
A second and even more intense surge of bitter arctic air will pour south Saturday into Sunday. Dangerously cold air will be accompanied with this surge, including below zero wind chills and more snow showers.
We’re eyeing early next week for the opportunity of a more widespread winter event. Stay tuned…
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/02/09/winters-back/
Feb 03
Not A Bad Day Today; Snow Event Wednesday…After a cold start today, temperatures will moderate into the lower to middle 30s this afternoon. We’ll be in a weak southerly air flow this afternoon as a disturbance tracks to our north.
The big focus of this forecast package has to do with Wednesday. We forecast a quiet start to the day, but clouds will quickly lower and thicken and widespread snow, briefly heavy, will overspread all of the region tomorrow afternoon. This will be a dry, powdery snow as all of the snow will fall behind an arctic boundary that will slip through the region. As of now we forecast 2″-3″ of snow tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening. Strong and gusty north winds will lead to blowing and drifting issues Wednesday evening. All in all, expect the Wednesday evening rush to be impacted. Frigid air will settle over the region by Thursday morning with dry conditions returning.
Temperatures will slowly moderate briefly out ahead of our next weekend weather maker. Keep an eye on Sunday-Monday as that will be our next opportunity for accumulating wintry precipitation.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/02/03/decent-day-today-snowy-wednesday-afternoon-ahead/
Feb 02
Models are handling the arctic front and associated wave differently from one another, but we tend to favor more of a GEM/ European blend. As it is, even the GFS is beginning to see the snow threat. The NAM (below) sees snow overspreading the region Wednesday afternoon and evening.
This is a different set-up than anything we’ve seen this winter as the majority of precipitation develops on the backside of the frontal boundary. An “ana front” is one that features clouds and precipitation developing behind the frontal system. The air behind this boundary will be of arctic origin and lead to very high snow ratios- meaning it won’t take much moisture to “fluff” up a few inches of snow across the region. Strong and gusty winds will also develop Wednesday night and temperatures will plummet (single digits or below zero Thursday morning). Blowing and drifting will be a concern. Stay tuned as we continue to look over the data.
The other item on the agenda has to do with Sunday. Once again we’ve got another major model battle on our hands. Taken verbatim, the GFS would imply a relatively boring weather weekend with some clouds and light rain (possibly ending as light snow Saturday night into Sunday). On the other hand, the European model implies a winter storm threat for the Ohio Valley Sunday….
Needless to say, there’s a lot going on and despite the headaches of last weekend, we may be back in a similar position for the upcoming weekend. And you thought you wanted this job?! 🙂
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/02/02/accumulating-snow-potential-wednesday-evening-model-madness-this-weekend/
Feb 02
Bundle Up…Snow showers and gusty winds are combining with refreezing of snow and moisture on roadways to create slick travel this Monday morning. Leave extra time on your way to work and school this morning and travel safely. Additionally, gusty northwest winds are pushing wind chill values into the subzero ranks. As we progress through the day we should see increasing sunshine, but it’ll remain frigid.
Our next storm system of interest arrives by the middle of the week. Forecast models differ on the timing and amount of moisture with this next storm, but there’s the chance of accumulating snow arriving Wednesday. This would be in advance of a quick-hitting pop of arctic air. We’ll keep a close eye on things.
The active pattern remains into the upcoming weekend as increasing clouds give way to showers Saturday and a transition to more a of wintry mix Sunday.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/02/02/cold-start-to-the-work-week-watching-wednesday/
Jan 31
An incredibly difficult and challenging forecast is in store for central Indiana over the course of the next 24-36 hours. I want to get out front with this right from the get go: bust potential is high with this type set-up, as a jog 10-20 miles north or south of the surface low will mean the difference between half a foot of snow and plain cold rain. As it stands now, and after careful consideration of every piece of data available, here’s our updated snowfall map:
I still am not sure any one piece of data is handling the interaction between the arctic high to the north and the developing low to our southwest “perfectly.” As such, additional fine tuning will have to take place tonight. That arctic high is powerful at nearly 1045mb. From a meteorological standpoint, it’ll be a fascinating battle watching the fight play out.
As you can see, we’re going to be looking at a very tight thermal gradient and it, unfortunately, appears to set itself up directly over the I-70 corridor. Precipitation type and amounts are the biggest challenge within the I-70 corridor. Further north, confidence increases rather significantly for a crippling snow storm. For central Indiana, this will be a very wet and heavy snow event before ending as a drier, powdery snow on the back end. As winds increase Sunday afternoon/ evening, the heavy “paste” like snow won’t blow around as easily as it would if it was drier. Further north the snow consistency will be drier and blowing and drifting will be severe (in the 8″-12″+ zone).
In the shorter-term, rain and a wintry mix will arrive into the region as early as early as 6-7 o’clock.
Stay tuned. Another post will hit here late tonight (midnight-ish). In the meantime, we’ll keep our thoughts coming at @indywx through the afternoon.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/01/31/crippling-snow-storm-for-some-just-wet-for-others/