Category: Windy

Jan 02

Rare And Potentially Crippling Winter Storm Brewing…

Fresh on the heels of a significant winter storm that impacted central Indiana Wednesday night-Thursday, we’re eyeing our next winter storm and, quite frankly, it could be a memorable one.

We continue to keep a close eye on the pending winter storm Sunday and remain impressed with what we see.  A severe winter storm is brewing and may require blizzard watches and warnings before all is said and done as a combination of heavy snow, strong winds, and severe blowing and drifting promises to make travel difficult, if not impossible, for some areas Sunday.

Setting the stage:

A powerful arctic boundary will drift south towards Indiana Saturday night and Sunday morning.  As this takes place, low pressure will track off the lee of the Rockies and move east, northeast.  Model data continues to suggest this area of low pressure taps into some Gulf of Mexico moisture and really begins to deepen (strengthen) as it tracks into the central/ eastern Ohio Valley Sunday.  To the northwest of the low’s track, a deep blanket of fresh snow will fall.  As the winter storm departs, the coldest air since 1994 will pour into the region on a gusty northwest wind.  Temperatures will reach record territory, and downright dangerous levels, by Monday and Tuesday.

Last night we mentioned a couple of things going “for” and “against” a major winter storm here in central Indiana.  While there’s no doubt going to be a sharp “cut off” of heavy snow with this storm, this “cut off zone” is most likely well north and west of central Indiana.  Additionally, the impressive thermal gradient between the brutal arctic air mass to the north and the warmer air (relatively speaking) to the south and east will only add fuel to a deepening storm moving northeast into the Ohio Valley.  Finally, with arctic air pouring into the region, the “fluff effect” will be in full-go mode, meaning the northwest flank of the heavy precipitation is likely to have snow ratios of 15:1 as compared to the “normal” 10:1 ratio.  This will be very important to watch as the system develops and will most likely be the spot (far too early to pinpoint at this juncture) where snowfall amounts in excess of one foot will fall.

All of our medium range model data is in agreement on central Indiana receiving quite the blow from Old Man Winter Sunday.  Here’s a look at the latest GFS, European, and Canadian forecast models, valid Sunday afternoon:

GFS1EC1CMC1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

As you can see, there’s excellent agreement and this leads to a rather high confidence idea on a high-impact and rather rare severe winter storm set to impact Indiana.  Can we tell you with certainty exactly where the 12″+ band of snow will lie across the state?  Not at this time.  That said, we suggest preparing now for a rare and potentially crippling winter storm Sunday.  The combination of heavy snow, strong winds, historic cold, and severe blowing and drifting will make for an extremely dangerous situation Sunday, continuing into early next week.  Temperatures by Tuesday morning will approach 20 degrees below zero, with wind chill values plummeting to 40-50 degrees below zero Monday into Tuesday…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/rare-and-potentially-crippling-winter-storm-brewing/

Jan 01

Triple Threat Of Dangerous Winter Weather Ahead…

You can always catch your latest 7-Day Video Forecast in the video player to the right of this post.

We continue to be very impressed with what’s ahead, winter weather-wise, for central Indiana over the course of the upcoming 10 days.  Simply put, what’s at stake is a 10-day period of winter weather that could rival the all time greats in terms of snowfall and cold.  It’ll certainly be interesting to watch things unfold in the days ahead.

Here are some quick-hitting bullet points of what we’re eyeing…

  • Accumulating snow late tonight-Thursday
  • Accumulating snow late Saturday night-Sunday
  • Coldest air since 1994 early next week
  • Dangerous cold and wind chill values to 40 degrees below zero

First things first and that’s tonight’s and Thursday’s snow event. We think snow becomes widespread across central Indiana prior to, or around, midnight.  The low pressure system that will aid in snow production across our region Thursday AM is organizing across the central Plains this evening and this will move east northeast with time between now and Thursday morning.

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Latest high-resolution simulated model data shows the snow increasing in coverage across central Indiana around midnight.

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We think the period of heaviest snow comes during the early to mid morning Thursday and will result in a horrible rush period on area roadways.  Accumulating snow ends by noon and is replaced with falling temperatures, gusty northwest winds resulting in blowing and drifting, and scattered lake-driven flurries.

All eyes will then shift to storm number two set to arrive late Saturday night into Sunday.  An arctic boundary will moves towards the region Saturday night and Sunday and help surface low pressure develop.  All of our medium range models (GFS, Canadian, European) are on board with a developing surface low in the Ark-la-tex region late Saturday night/ early Sunday morning and can be seen below.

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There are still some questions that we have in regards to the extreme snowfall forecasts off some computer models, and we’ll stick with our initial call made here last night of an additional 3-6″ of snow late Saturday night-Sunday for now.  We come up with that range based off an all model blend, including raw numbers, operational data, and ensembles.  An extremely strong arctic high pressure system will be plunging south and will limit how far north the heavy snow makes it.  That said, snowfall ratios and an initial impressive thermal gradient will lead to a heavy snow storm for some parts of the Ohio Valley region Sunday.  Stay tuned.

As early next week approaches (and I’m all settled in to enjoy what I hope to be Auburn’s second National Championship in 4 years), the coldest air since 1994 will be blowing into the region.  Downright dangerous wind chill values of 40 degrees below zero will be possible Monday into Tuesday and result in extremely dangerous conditions to be outdoors for any period of time.

Here’s a look at the latest wind chill idea:

plotterForecast lows of 15 to 20 degrees below zero will be likely early next week across central Indiana with afternoon highs struggling to make it to zero.

Prepare now for a significant triple threat punch of snow and cold in the days ahead. Stay tuned!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/triple-threat-of-dangerous-winter-weather-ahead/

Nov 10

Monday Forecast: Snow Develops By Evening

Updated 11.11.13 @ 8:30a

Zionsville, IN Despite some wind (top wind gusts this weekend reached around 30 MPH) and a chilly Sunday, the weekend was a beautiful one, complete with lots-o-sunshine!  A more active time of things is ahead to kick off the work week.  We discuss below…

Status-weather-snow-scattered-day-iconMonday: Increasing cloudiness with PM rain showers transitioning to light snow (0.50″); 28/ 46

The day will dawn with some sunshine, but clouds will be on the increase and showers won’t be far behind. This is all part of the early season arctic cold front we’ve been talking about.  We think showers (initially rain) arrive into north-central Indiana as early as the early to mid afternoon hours before pushing fairly rapidly south. It’s towards late afternoon/ early evening rain begins to transition to snow. Light snow will continue into the nighttime hours and potentially accumulate to around half an inch across most of central Indiana.

There are a couple of items we’ll have to monitor closely through the overnight and that’s the exact placement of what should be some impressive bands of lake effect snow streaming off Lake Michigan.  While the more significant accumulations, upwards of half a foot for the Indiana snow belt, will remain well north of us, there is the chance a more concentrated band of snow could reach as far south to impact portions of north-central Indiana late Monday night into Tuesday morning and result in accumulations of an inch or two for localized communities. Again, this will have to be handled as a “NowCast” scenario and isn’t set in stone.  If locally heavier snow accumulations do develop with the localized lake enhancement, the majority of this would be north of our immediate coverage area.

Temperatures will plummet Monday night into the lower to middle 20s on a gusty northwest wind.  Needless to say, slick spots could develop on area roadways Monday night.

Status-weather-snow-scattered-day-iconTuesday: Scattered AM snow showers (localized 0.50″); 22/ 35

We’ll keep an eye to area radars Tuesday, particularly in the morning hours as scattered snow showers (potential lake enhanced snow for localized spots) continue.  Conditions will be much more like winter than fall so plan to bundle up. In fact, temperatures will average close to 20 degrees below average for afternoon highs. Any lingering snow showers or flurries will begin to dissipate during the afternoon, paving way for a clear and very cold Tuesday night.

Status-weather-clear-iconWednesday: Sunny; 19/ 42

High pressure will be overhead Wednesday and help supply a day filled with sunshine, although it’ll remain MUCH colder than normal.  We’ll awake to the upper teens followed by highs reaching the lower 40s Wednesday afternoon.

Status-weather-clouds-iconThursday: Partly cloudy; 28/ 49

Temperatures will begin to moderate slowly Thursday as high pressure moves to our east. This will set the stage for a return southwesterly air flow and corresponding milder regime, albeit slowly.  After yet another cold and frosty night, temperatures will make a run at 50 degrees Thursday afternoon.

imagesFriday: Mostly cloudy; 35/ 49

A weak weather system will scoot through the region Friday and lead to an increase in cloud cover. Thinking, at least for now, has the area trying to recover from the cold, dry air mass in place so any sort of precipitation will, most likely, be tough to come by. That said, we’ll continue to monitor to see if we need to introduce a scattered light shower into our Friday forecast.

Status-weather-showers-scattered-iconSaturday: Cloudy with developing light rain; (0.25″) 39/ 52

The early look at next weekend places the region under a southerly flow of air with moisture making a return north, potentially out ahead of a rather significant storm system we’ll have to deal with early next week. The end result will initially be a rather cloudy, gloomy time of things, including developing light rain Saturday.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/monday-forecast-snow-develops-this-evening/

Nov 09

Closer Look At Saturday!

Happy college football Saturday!  Here’s a quick post before the fun begins this afternoon!  War Eagle!

Today will be a beautiful day, albeit windy.  Winds will gust out of the southwest up to 30 MPH at times. Partly cloudy skies are on tap as highs reach the upper 50s to lower 60s, courtesy of that mild southwest air flow.

Enjoy the warmth while you have it, as the next 7 days will be MUCH colder than average.  By Tuesday, highs will remain in the 30s with AM light snow. Overnight lows by Wednesday morning?  How do the lower 20s sound?

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/closer-look-at-saturday/