Arctic Blast Today; Big Winter Storm Brewing

Thr.	Fri.	Sat.	Sun.	Mon.	Tue.	Wed.

6/ 14	10/ 35	28/ 39	19/ 30	10/ 19	– 5/ 19	0/ 20
– – –	Light	Light	Heavy	Light	– – –	– – –

Forecast Updated 02.27.14 @ 7:30a

Fresh Arctic Air…A fresh arctic air mass is blowing into the state this morning on gusty northerly winds. Top wind gusts here at IndyWx.com HQ, in southern Boone County, have been clocked at 41 MPH so far this morning. Despite a lot of sun today, don’t look for the thermometer to move much. In fact, we forecast most communities to remain below the middle teens- a far cry from the average high of the middle 40s.

Watching A Light Snow Maker…Most of Friday will feature sunshine, but clouds will be on the increase during the afternoon and some light snow will follow late Friday night into Saturday morning. This won’t be a big deal and really looks unimpressive- less than an inch for most neighborhoods.

Big Winter Storm Brewing…We continue to gain confidence in a winter storm that will impact central Indiana Saturday night through Monday morning. The set up is one that will feature an arctic front stalling out across the state Saturday night into early Sunday with moisture overrunning the cold air in place, resulting in periods of significant precipitation- mostly in the form of snow. Finally, a wave of low pressure will move out of the Mississippi River Valley northeast into the Tennessee Valley Sunday night into early Monday.

Our initial snowfall idea places a band of heavy snow through the majority of central Indiana, including Indianapolis, to the tune of 6-8 inches.

Bitter Air Flows In Behind The Winter Storm…A bitterly cold air mass will plunge into the area behind our winter storm. With a fresh, deep snow pack in place and clearing skies, it’s possible that we could be looking at below zero temperatures both Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. Forget that the calendar will say early March by this point…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast

7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 6-9″
7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.00″

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Bill McMillan February 27, 2014 No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Arctic Cold, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Record Cold, snow, Windy, Winter Storm

Word On The Weekend And A Couple Other Items Of Interest.

We continue to monitor the goings on for the weekend closely. As of now we still think snow is the dominant form of precipitation across central Indiana and likely comes in “waves” of intensity from late Saturday night into Monday morning. Significant snowfall totals are possible, but it’s still too early to pin point totals due to the chance of some mixing issues (sleet, freezing rain) for some and the overall placement of the cold front. This will be a bit different than what we’ve experienced with our last couple of winter storms and could be more of a prolonged event as warmer moist air overruns the cold air at the surface. Again, exactly where the arctic boundary stalls Saturday night into Sunday will determine the precise precipitation types and exactly who sees snow versus sleet and freezing rain. Stay tuned.

In other news…if you thought it’s been a cold winter then you’d be correct. In fact, this “cool” image from IEM shows that central Indiana has been at 32 degrees, or lower, between 60-70% of the time since December 1st. Impressive, for sure!

Finally, another arctic cold front will slam into central Indiana tomorrow morning and will be accompanied by howling northerly winds gusting to 40-50 MPH and a potential quick-hitting snow shower. This will set the stage for a brutal Thursday as temperatures struggle to recover to the lower to middle teens for IND and even colder for the northern ‘burbs. This is hard to handle when considering we’re expected to “normally” reach the middle 40s this time of year.

Bill McMillan February 26, 2014 No Comments Arctic Cold, Forecast, Freezing Rain, Sleet, snow, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Windy, Winter Storm

Back To Winter We Go

Fri. Sat. Sun. Mon. Tue. Wed. Thr. 31/ 43 31/ 44 26/ 34 18/ 32 19/ 26 8/ 22 7/ 19 Light –…

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Bill McMillan February 20, 2014 No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Arctic Cold, Canadian Model, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, snow, Windy

Active Thursday Ahead…

* Your complete 7-Day forecast can be found below this post.

We continue to monitor things closely Thursday as a busy day is on tap. Thunderstorms will initially blow into the region Thursday morning as a warm front lifts north through central Indiana. These storms will be capable of producing heavy rain and vivid lightning.

We’ll then get into a much warmer south wind (gusting up to 30 MPH) and watch radar trends closely to our west. We’re still very concerned for a squall line plowing east through the region Thursday evening. Time of greatest concern lies between 5PM and 8PM for this line, but we caution timing may have to be adjusted after looking over evening data. Damaging straight line winds are of the greatest concern Thursday evening, along with torrential rainfall.

Following the squall line, we’re also concerned for strong and potentially damaging northwest winds Thursday night, gusting up to 50 MPH, as low pressure rapidly deepens moving into the Great Lakes.

Bullet Point Thoughts You Need To Know For Thursday

Morning round of heavy rain and thunderstorms
Severe squall line capable of wind gusts over 60 MPH Thursday evening- targeting 5pm to 11pm
Heavy rain totals around 1″
Strong northwest winds Thursday night that could gust up to 50 MPH

Bill McMillan February 19, 2014 No Comments Flooding, Heavy Rain, Rain, Severe Weather, T-storms, Windy

Focus On Mid Week Flood/ Storm Threat…

Wed.	Thr.	Fri.	Sat.	Sun.	Mon.	Tue.

35/ 50	36/ 60	29/ 43	29/ 39	21/ 35	17/ 28	16/ 24
0.00”	0.75″-1.00″	0.00”	Trace	Trace	0.00″	Accumulating snow?

Forecast Updated: 02.19.14 @ 8:00a

One More Calm Day…A weak front blew through early Wednesday and produced a light shower for southeast parts of the state. Sunshine will return Wednesday along with a blustery northwest wind. It’ll be another mild day.

Concern For Flooding And Severe…With continued melting of a deep snow pack, combined with around an inch of rain (most of which falls within a 3 hour time period Thursday) and the stage will certainly be set for flooding. In fact, we remain very concerned for flooding Thursday. If you live in a flood prone area, please prepare to seek higher ground Thursday as flood waters rise.

The second concern is a severe potential Thursday evening. While the greatest threat for severe weather will remain south and east of our immediate region, we’ll have to be mindful of the potential of damaging straight line wind gusts Thursday evening. The greatest threat lies between 5PM and 8PM Thursday as a line of thunderstorms pushes east through the state. Again, damaging straight line winds, in excess of 60 MPH, is our greatest concern at present time. Stay tuned. Drier and much colder air will roar in behind the front Thursday night on strong and gusty northwest winds.

Weak Weekend Disturbances…A couple of fast moving disturbances will pass through the region this weekend and could spark scattered snow showers in the much colder air.

Accumulating Snow Early Next Week…Model data continues to struggle in the mid range handling energy coming east before what continues to look like a big blast of arctic air to wrap up February. As of now, we’re targeting Tuesday for best chances of accumulating snow, but stress this a low confidence forecast in regards to timing at present. Stay tuned.