Updated 07.07.23 @ 7:31a
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Jul 07
Updated 07.07.23 @ 7:31a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-watching-saturday-storm-threat-next-week-opens-nice-before-turning-unsettled-mid-and-late-week/
Jun 02
Updated 06.02.23 @ 7:39a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-much-cooler-by-mid-next-week-reasons-to-believe-a-wetter-pattern-emerges-down-the-road/
Jan 19
Updated 01.19.23 @ 6:15p
Our short-term products will continue to handle the snow threats this weekend and next week. In short, we have no changes to our thoughts on either of those from this morning. The 2nd storm has potential to be something much more significant, but we need to give it another 2-3 days before putting a forecast in concrete, especially this winter.
As for the longer range, a more seasonably cold brand of air is expected as we put a wrap on January, but I’m not willing to go further than that to suggest anything close to “bitter” cold is on deck- certainly given the time of the year. It’ll feel much colder, especially considering just how warm it’s been of late, but I just don’t see anything overly cold on the horizon, compared to normal.
Thereafter, the pattern drivers suggest a warmer than normal pattern will return. “Transitional” anyone? While I can’t say we’re looking at anomalies as great as what we’ve seen so far in January, I do think early and mid February will feature above to well above normal temperatures before colder than normal trends take hold late February and into early March.
The updated European Weeklies mirror the new JMA Weeklies and we see no reason to argue given the movement and overall alignment between the EPO, PNA, NAO, and AO.
Week 2
JMA Weeks 3/4
European Weeklies: Week 3
European Weeklies: Week 4
As we get out towards the latter part of February (around or after the 20th), the teleconnections mentioned above, that will likely promote the relatively warm conditions, will begin to turn around and drive a colder close to the month and open to March. In fact, there are signs the coldest anomalies of the entire winter (compared to average, not in the “absolute” form) will await for this period, and potentially continue into a good chunk of March, especially if the MJO amplitude continues and we add in a negative NAO. (I know, I know- remember that I’m only the messenger).
In the meantime, we also agree with the above normal precipitation pattern painted throughout the upcoming few weeks between the updated Weekly products.
In this active type pattern, despite the lack of bitterly cold arctic air, plenty of snow is likely still yet to fall this winter. In fact, despite the slow start, I wouldn’t be shocked if snowfall amounts end up being pretty dang close to seasonal averages with this type pattern (give or take a few inches). The ultimate irony will be if the bulk of that falls in March…
Much more in the morning around the Sunday and Tuesday-Wednesday snow threats!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/february-and-early-march-long-range-discussion/
Oct 20
Updated 10.20.22 @ 5:48p
It’s been a chilly October. Officially, IND is running more than 4° below average month-to-date. It’s also been dry. We’re running close to 2″ below normal in the rainfall department.
When we look at the pattern drivers, it’s hard to see a way for there to be any sort of prolonged chill (compared to normal) over the next couple of weeks. That’s not to say there won’t be “pops” of cooler air here and there, but given the EPO and PNA state below, the upper pattern should favor more persistent ridging across the eastern portion of the country as opposed to the troughiness of late.
The MJO (likely a major driver this upcoming winter) is forecast to move out of Phase 6 into Phase 7 late October.
Phase 7 favors a western trough and associated cooler temperatures compared to average across the western portion of the country.
To no surprise, modeling sees the ‘mean’ trough and ridge placement in exact positions that we’d expect given the primary pattern drivers laid out above.
Week 1 500mb
Week 2 500mb
It’s also a continued overall drier than normal pattern, locally, over the next couple of weeks (in the face of a midweek storm system that should at least provide some unsettled weather the middle of next week- more on this in our short-term products).
As we look ahead towards November, there are potential changes with respect to the primary pattern drivers that could shift a colder regime back east. Note we think the month opens warmer than normal, but that things begin to take a turn towards the colder towards mid-month. Interestingly, the longer range teleconnection forecasts see the EPO heading negative by mid-Nov and the PNA heading neutral to positive. These are encouraging signs our idea is on the right path and perhaps that a colder pattern emerges during the lead-up to the holidays this year.
The NEW European Weeklies develop a 500mb look that features plenty of high latitude blocking by mid-November and should this be correct (we think it is), we should see the model trend colder across the East during this time period. Needless to say, this is the period we’ll continue to keep close tabs on…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/lr-update-late-october-into-mid-november-pattern-progression/
Sep 01
Updated 09.01.22 @ 7:48a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-looking-into-the-pattern-into-mid-september/