Weekly Highlights: Tropical Weather Headlines…

Highlights928104There’s a whole slew of new products we’re going to start rolling out over the next several weeks, including more videos, as well.  One of the new features is a nationwide weekly highlight map, helping showcase the big-ticket weather items that have our attention over the upcoming week.  While we could side with going with fancy graphics, we chose to go the route of a hand drawn map for old time sakes.  🙂 This will be posted on Sunday or Monday of each week.

1.) A cold front will move through the Mid West and Ohio Valley during the early to middle portion of the work week and be responsible for putting a temporary delay in #harvest15.  While rainfall won’t be particularly heavy, it’ll help to serve up a fresh chill to the air as we progress from mid to late week.  A significant temperature reversal can be expected from 10-15 degrees above normal to 10 degrees below normal from early week to late week.

2.)  A tropical disturbance is plaguing the Gulf Coastal waters with rough surf, gusty winds, and heavy rain to open the week.  As this disturbance moves northeast, heavy rains will encompass a large portion of the southeast, as well as southern and central Appalachians, on up the eastern seaboard.

3.)  Perhaps of more importance is the way things evolve over the coming couple days with TD 11 and the overall weather pattern off the eastern seaboard.  If you live along the East Coast, you’ll want to pay particularly close attention to the goings on.  At the very least, an impactful system is ahead from a heavy rain and erosion perspective, but there’s also the potential of something more severe from a purely tropical stand point.

4.)  An area of low pressure will drop south along the Front Range late in the period and offer up beneficial moisture to not only the Front Range, but the central Plains.

As always, you can follow us on Twitter (@indywx) or e-mail us at bill@indywx.com for more on the variety of weather consulting we provide.  Have a great day and God Bless!

More Winter Chatter…

Now that we’re in September (where does time go?!) we wanted to touch base on some of our latest thinking as we rumble closer to winter… * Our official 2015-2016…

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Where We Are And Where We’re Going…

It’s another frigid start to the day and this seems to be the story of the winter of 2024-2015. The weather roundup of 7am temperatures and March 6th snow cover…

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Enjoy Today; Cold Week Coming…

Another mild day is on tap with a southwest flow ahead of a frontal boundary that slips through this evening with light showers. Note the sharp temperature gradient this evening.…

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Short-term Cold; Mid-range Warm…

There’s been a ton of conversation as of late about where this overall weather pattern is heading.  Perhaps it’s the Christmas season that brings out the conversation as everyone is hoping for that cold pattern to provide a White Christmas.

While in the short-term cold will continue to dominate, we’re becoming increasingly confident of an unseasonably mild stretch of air in the mid-range period.  That’ll take us up to the week before Christmas…

In the short-term, the positive PNA will continue to be the primary driver in our pattern.  This will ensure a colder east through the majority of week 1 (through next Friday).

pna.sprd2

A positive PNA pattern typically leads to below normal heights (trough) and associated cooler than normal pattern across the eastern region.
A positive PNA pattern typically leads to below normal heights (trough) and associated cooler than normal pattern across the eastern region.

Modeling sees the cool east in week 1 and warm west- typical of a positive PNA pattern:

gefs_t2anom_by5_conus_29

There are changes in the mid-range period that’ll have lovers of winter and cold frowning.  Many of our long-term readers know how we use the “typhoon rule” as a good indication of what we can expect across our region 6-10 days down the road.  As stated multiple times in the past (want to give credit where credit is due), we learned this from the great Joe Bastardi.  For those that are new here, I’ll describe this very briefly (you can read through the archives, if you’d like, for a longer/ more detailed description).  Typically when you have a recurving typhoon in the WPAC, that suggests a trough (colder pattern) across the central and eastern Lower 48.  On the flip side, when you have a westward moving typhoon, that’s a good indication of eastern ridging (warmer pattern).

Courtesy of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Super Typhoon Hagupit is forecast to move on a general westward trajectory.

wp2214

This is a very good sign of a much milder than normal period in the mid-range (days 8-12).  Modeling, in return, is going towards a warm pattern (associated ridge) week 2:

test8

The GFS ensembles and NAEFS agree on the warmth and given what we’ve discussed above, so do we:

2014120412_054@007_E1_north@america_I_NAEFS@TEMPERATURE_anomaly@probability@combined@week2_186

D12

In fact, it wouldn’t surprise us to see high temperatures in the 55-60 degree range during a day or two week 2.

Really quick and before we end- lovers of winter weather, there’s absolutely NO reason to throw in the towel.  In fact, indications in the long range suggest the trough collapses into the east during the week leading up to Christmas and that could provide for all sorts of wintry “mischief” when almost all of folks are wanting snow…

Much more on that in the days ahead.  Have a great night!