Category: Weekly Outlook

Jul 27

JMA Weeklies: Hottest Of The Summer Is Behind Us…

The new JMA Weeklies are in and highlighted by the following:

  • An unseasonably cool close to July
  • Worst of the summer heat is behind us
  • Warmest anomalies along the East and West Coasts

Week 1:

A trough will sink into the central and eastern portions of the country and result in rather widespread below normal and quite refreshing conditions as we close the month of July.  Along with the cool, dry air will come an extended stretch of rain-free conditions through the latter portions of next week.

Week 2:

The JMA suggests the mean trough position will remain across the central portions of the country with signals of ridging developing along the Northwest coast.  Cool, wet weather (compared to average) is forecast central as the heat continues across the West.  We also note developing warmth across the Northeast region.

Weeks 3-4:

Seasonal temperatures are set to unfold across the central late August with warmest anomalies painting themselves across the Northeast and Northwest portions of the country.  The pattern, locally, is set to become more active from a precipitation perspective as wet conditions return.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/jma-weeklies-hottest-of-the-summer-is-behind-us/

Jul 20

JMA Weeklies: Seasonal Pattern To Open August

The new JMA Weeklies are in and highlighted by the following:

  • Central hot pattern doesn’t last
  • Seasonal pattern takes hold
  • Heat builds across the Northeast region

Week 1:

Hottest anomalies remain across the central region, but the days are numbered on this pulse of heat and the JMA Weeklies suggest a cooler, more seasonal, pattern looms to close July and open August.  We note the wet regime across the Southwest region, where associated cooler anomalies are also located.

Week 2:

It’s a “book end” hot pattern that includes heat along both the Northwest region and a developing hot pattern over the Northeast.  The central region, including here on the home front, looks very seasonal.  With a subtle northwest flow aloft, we’ll have to be mindful of storm complexes at times.

Weeks 3-4:

Our attention is drawn to the heat across the Northeast region and the cooler, wetter regime (relative to average) across the Southwest.  Locally, there aren’t any strong indications for big time heat or heavy rains.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/jma-weeklies-seasonal-pattern-to-open-august/

Jun 18

Upcoming Week Headliners…

I. Drier and Cooler Air Returns:  A cold front will pass this evening and allow a much less humid and cooler air mass to return to the state.  Dew points will fall into the 50s by Monday morning and highs should only reach the upper 70s to around 80 Monday afternoon.  Refreshing air will remain in place through the day Tuesday.

A much less humid air mass will arrive to open the work week.

II. Watching the Gulf:  All eyes will be on the Gulf of Mexico this week as it tries to breed early season tropical “mischief.”  There are many more questions than answers right now concerning the all-important details (ultimate track and strength), but confidence is high on a depression or storm forming in the Gulf by middle to latter portions of the week.  Early thinking would place more emphasis on this being a big inland rain event across portions of the southeast, as opposed to this thing ramping up fast enough to be a big wind/ surge problem, but stay tuned.

Confidence is high on early season tropical development this week in the Gulf of Mexico.

III. Unsettled Weather Returns:  A storm system will approach the region by the latter portions of the work week, including the weekend.  As a result, a warmer and increasingly moist air mass will return and help spawn showers and thunderstorms.  Unfortunately, timing isn’t our friend as numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast Friday-Sunday.  Locally heavy rain is also a good bet.

Heavy rain and storm chances increase late week.

IV. June Ends On A Cool Note:  Once we get rid of the significant storm next weekend, an unseasonably cool air mass will build in over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley in the 8-10 day time period.  How do highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s sound and lows in the middle 50s?

Models agree on an unseasonably cool close to June.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/upcoming-week-headliners/

Jun 15

JMA Weeklies: Heat Relief Coming And An Active Pattern As We Get Into July…

The new JMA Weeklies are in and highlighted by the following:

  • Heat relief on the way through Week 1
  • Core of heat, relative to normal, backs west through the period
  • Active NW flow regime to open July

Week 1:  

The JMA Weeklies really try to emphasize the “transient” nature of the pattern and associated dry, hot weather some folks were becoming concerned about only a couple of days ago.  Week 1 is highlighted by a much wetter regime through the Ohio Valley and most of the East.  As the ridge pulls back west, a cooler regime returns to our region, while the Southwest bakes with anomalously hot weather.

Week 2:  

The pattern favors wetter than normal conditions across the upper Mid West, including Great Lakes.  The mean upper ridge is forecast to remain out west.  Fittingly, the warmest temperatures, relative to average, will be confined to the west.

Weeks 3-4:  

As we push into July, the upper pattern sets-up in a manner that will require us to keep a very close eye on storm potential.  With a northwest flow aloft, we’ll have to be mindful of the potential of storm clusters impacting the region- tracking northwest to southeast.  Through the balance of the period, the hottest weather should remain to our west, relative to normal.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/jma-weeklies-heat-relief-coming-and-an-active-pattern-as-we-get-into-july/

Apr 23

Quiet Open To The Work Week Turns Stormy By Midweek…

After a blustery and chilly Saturday (and temperatures in the upper 30s to start our Sunday), a gorgeous close to the weekend is ahead.  Wall-to-wall sunshine is expected with moderating temperatures this afternoon.  Our average high on the 23rd of April is 66° and we should be very close to that later this afternoon.  Enjoy!

High pressure will remain entrenched over our area as we progress through the early portions of the work week.  This will provide pleasant weather and plentiful sunshine.  With a dry airmass in place, expect significant temperature swings.  Overnight lows in the 40s will quickly rise into the 70s Monday and Tuesday.

High pressure will dominate our early-week weather.

A southerly flow will help pull a more humid air mass northward Wednesday and as a cold front slices into the unseasonably warm and muggy airmass, we expect showers and thunderstorms to increase Wednesday evening into Thursday morning.  We still have some time to watch things evolve, but from this distance, we feel strong to severe thunderstorm potential is present during this period.  Locally heavy rains are also possible as PWATs zoom to 1.5″ +.

Precipitable water values will increase to 1.5″+ Wednesday and support the threat of locally heavy rain.

We’ll get into some briefly drier air to wrap up the work week, but a warm front will blow through the region Saturday and will likely be accompanied by thunderstorms as it lifts north.  Once the warm front passes, unseasonably warm and humid air will make a return and set the stage for a true summer-like feel next weekend.  We expect highs to go into the lower to middle 80s with a muggy feel, as well.

Finally, after Saturday morning thunder, we think the majority of next weekend is dry before a cold front brings a return to widespread showers and thunderstorms late Sunday.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/quiet-open-to-the-work-week-turns-stormy-by-midweek/