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Category: Weather Rambles
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/23/video-saturday-washout-and-reasons-to-buy-the-cold-early-november-idea-winter-19-20-chatter/
Oct 18
Friday Morning Rambles…
I. A mostly dry, but breezy weekend is dialed up! A couple light showers may scoot across western portions of the state Saturday, but “light” is the key word.
South winds are expected to gust between 20-25 MPH at times over the weekend. This will deliver milder air with high temperatures reaching the upper 60s to around 70° Saturday and Sunday.
II. An active week is on tap next week with (2) strong cold fronts slated to move through the region.
The first boundary will result in widespread showers and embedded thunder Monday. Most can expect around half an inch of rain with this system to open the work week. Cooler and blustery conditions will return into midweek.
The second cold front will move though late Thursday into Friday and feature another quick pop of rain (relatively light amounts expected at this time) followed by the coldest air mass so far this autumn heading into next weekend.
The air mass will be cold enough to ignite for the first lake effect snow outbreak of the season next weekend.
Finally, we still need to monitor the prospects of additional upper level energy that may try and result in a cold rain or wintry mix just before Halloween. Regardless, Halloween is looking quite chilly this year…
III. Our official annual winter outlook will be released later this month. The latest sea surface temperature anomalies have to make central and eastern winter weather lovers drool. The persistent warmth in the NE PAC should promote a more sustained western ridge/ central and eastern trough this winter when compared to the past couple. More on this and many other factors (including the Modoki Nino event) in the near future…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/18/friday-morning-rambles-5/
Oct 05
Saturday Morning Rambles…
I. Our Saturday will get off to a stunning start. Despite some patchy fog here and there, look for plentiful sunshine and chilly temperatures in the low-mid 40s rising into the low-mid 70s for afternoon highs with increasing clouds.
II. Those increasing clouds will deliver showers by tonight across central Indiana and then more concentrated heavier rain downstate Sunday evening into the predawn Monday. Southern Indiana is needing a good soaking in a bad way and this system will at least help things slowly begin to improve…
Rainfall totals with this system across central Indiana should accumulate to the tune of 0.20 to 0.40 for most with heavier amounts approaching 1” across the IN-KY border.
Note this is where things are driest across the state per Thursday’s drought update.
III. Our next storm system will swing through here late in the work week. We’re timing Thursday PM into early Friday for a round of showers and potentially gusty thunderstorms as a cold front pushes through.
Behind this boundary, the coldest air of the fall so far will blow into town. We’re continuing to think many of the area can expect the first frost of the season next weekend.
IV. As we look ahead, it’s time to start putting more stock into other tools in the box. Case in point, the MJO is showing signs of less amplitude over the upcoming couple weeks followed by a strongly positive PNA. This supports colder signals in the period. We’ll dig in further in the days ahead.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/05/saturday-morning-rambles-10/
Sep 12
Thursday Morning Rambles: Warmth Continues To Dominate Over The Next 10 Days…
A “cold front” will pass Friday evening. Despite the threat of a couple widely scattered storms this afternoon/ evening, a broken line of storms may accompany the front Friday afternoon and evening. We’re not expecting widespread rain or storm activity with the passage of this front and some yards won’t see a drop of rain over the next couple of days.
While somewhat drier air will briefly work into the region Saturday, temperatures will remain well above average. The humidity will return next week.
As we look ahead over next week, generally quiet conditions are anticipated. The big story in the weather department will be the continuation of summer-like heat and an active time of things in the tropics.
Let’s start with the tropics. Guidance overnight has trended further east with the disturbance that at one time appeared it was heading for the Gulf of Mexico. Instead, our East Coast friends should take note of the disturbed weather in the Caribbean. Some model guidance spins this up into a hurricane over the upcoming weekend as it at least “flirts” with the Southeast US coast (perhaps in an eerily similar fashion as Dorian). The item in the open Atlantic is another we’ll have to keep close eyes on for Week 2 for the Gulf of Mexico. Unfortunately, the upper pattern is a favorable one for the Southeast US coastline to experience a landfall over the next couple of weeks…
That same pattern through the next couple of weeks is also one that will continue to produce an “extended summer” across the East.
As we look ahead to next weekend, there’s the potential of a stronger cold front offering up more organized rain/ storm chances followed by a stronger cool shot. We’ll have more on this threat in our Weekly AG/ Severe Weather Outlook published this weekend.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/09/12/thursday-morning-rambles-warmth-continues-to-dominate-over-the-next-10-days/
Sep 03
Pulling The Curtain Back On The Medium Range Pattern…
A cold front will sink south across the state this evening. As the front moves through the area, we expect thunderstorms to increase in coverage and intensity across northern Indiana over the next few hours. These storms should push off to the south during the overnight, weakening as they do so. We still aren’t expecting much in the way of widespread severe weather across immediate central Indiana.
Once the front passes, northwest winds will take over during the predawn hours and help push a drier and cooler brand of air south into the region.
Thereafter, get used to unseasonably cool air, to the tune of what we’d normally expect by late September, for the 2nd half of the week- including this weekend. Mostly dry weather is expected to prevail through the period.
As we look ahead to next week, moderating temperatures are expected next Tuesday and Wednesday, including lower to middle 80s. That said, we do have questions if the warmth will have staying power.
We note the MJO “toying around” with the warmer Phase 6 for a time before returning to Phase 5 (a cooler phase this time of year).
Add in the fact that the EPS and GEFS are in disagreement in handling the EPO in the medium term and this results in lower confidence in the overall staying power of the warmth come mid month.
Unfortunately, this time of year, the tools we can really “lean on” for indications of where the longer range pattern will head are limited (compared to late fall through early spring). That’s when we can really focus on the other drivers such as the AO, NAO, PNA, recurving WPAC tropical activity, etc.
As such, while we continue to believe the pattern trends warmer after the cool spell into the weekend, patience is required with respect to the staying power of said warmth…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/09/03/pulling-the-curtain-back-on-the-medium-range-pattern/
Aug 30
Widely Scattered Light Showers Through Labor Day Weekend; Tracking A Strong Cold Front Late Next Week…
A frontal boundary will continue to settle south this morning and we’ll notice a much less humid feel tonight into Saturday morning as a northeast wind takes hold.
Widely scattered light showers will scoot across the state late tonight into Saturday morning.
We’re still not expecting heavy or widespread organized rain this Labor Day weekend- just widely scattered “nuisance” level showers at times. There will be many more dry hours than wet through the holiday weekend.
Most area rain gauges can expect to pick up between 0.25″ and 0.50″ by Monday afternoon.
The big story this weekend will be Hurricane Dorian. We anticipate Dorian to strengthen into a major hurricane later today. The latest official National Hurricane Center forecast brings Dorian into the southeast Florida peninsula as a major hurricane late Labor Day night or Tuesday. While confidence continues to increase on an eventual landfall along the Florida peninsula (before a hard turn right that would take Dorian either north across the peninsula or perhaps wobble back off shore), timing is much more uncertain as the majority of data has slowed the forward progress of Dorian this weekend. If you have interests across the state or loved ones in the path of the storm, it’ll be important to stay tuned for future updates.
Back here on the home front, quiet weather is expected through early week. The first of 2 cold fronts will pass Tuesday night or early Wednesday (little in the way of fanfare with that frontal passage).
The second front will be a bigger deal late next week. Though still rather moisture starved, it’s the drop in temperatures expected behind the frontal passage that will be impressive. We’ll notice an October-level chill next weekend as this front sweeps off to the southeast. We note the latest European data has highs only in the 60s next weekend with lows in the 40s.
Meanwhile, it’s very possible we’ll still be dealing with Dorian this time next week along the southeast US costal region…
Much more through the weekend, including updates on Dorian, the season’s 1st strong fall frontal passage, and our September Outlook.
Enjoy your Friday, friends!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/08/30/widely-scattered-light-showers-through-labor-day-weekend-tracking-a-strong-cold-front-late-next-week/
Aug 25
Sunday Morning Rambles…
I. The dry air we’ve enjoyed the past couple of days will be replaced with an increasingly moist air mass to open the work week.
II. With that will come an increase in cloud cover later today and the possibility of a couple of showers. Better coverage of showers and embedded thunder will return Monday into Tuesday.
Rainfall amounts of 0.25” to 0.75” can be expected during this time period with some neighborhoods accumulating close to an inch.
III. A cold front will sweep across the Ohio Valley for midweek leading to a return of dry and unseasonably cool conditions. This will be followed by a second frontal passage Labor Day weekend that will serve to reinforce the cooler than normal air.
Will have a more detailed post, including longer range thoughts later this evening, friends.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/08/25/sunday-morning-rambles-5/
Aug 07
Severe Potential East Thursday; Great Weekend On Deck, And Looking Ahead To Next Week…
Needed moisture missed much of immediate central Indiana Tuesday. Areas south of the city picked up some locally heavy downpours, but the early morning diminishing convection to our northwest helped stabilize things just enough to prevent storms from redeveloping locally.
There will be another opportunity for getting some needed rain Thursday, but we caution coverage, yet again, will likely be of the “hit and miss” variety. Given some of the ingredients, a couple of severe cells will be possible ahead of the frontal boundary Thursday afternoon. Best chances of being impacted by a storm Thursday will be across east-central Indiana as a line of storms across Ohio “tails back” into Indiana. Accordingly, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) does include this part of the state in a Slight Risk of severe weather Thursday.
Primary concerns for any stronger thunderstorm that develops will be large hail and straight line winds.
As we look ahead to the weekend, sprawling high pressure is still expected to move overhead and produce plentiful sunshine, low humidity (you’ll notice a big drop in moisture levels Thursday afternoon to Friday morning), and very pleasant temperatures.
Our next chance of rain and storms will arrive Monday into Tuesday.
More a bit later with the issuance of our Wednesday evening video update! Enjoy your Wednesday!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/08/07/severe-potential-east-thursday-great-weekend-on-deck-and-looking-ahead-to-next-week/
Aug 01
VIDEO: Quiet Open To August Turns More Active Next Week…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/08/01/video-quiet-open-to-august-turns-more-active-next-week/
Jul 30
Tuesday Morning Rambles: Tropics Turn More Active And More On The Cool 1st Half Of August…
I. Indianapolis officially register 0.68″ in the rain gauge Monday, however, there were many neighborhoods that reported over 1″ of rain. A snapshot of radar estimates below show between 1″ and 1.5″ of rain from places such as Crawfordsville up through Frankfort and towards Fort Wayne, along with areas in and around Connersville and Richmond. After a dry stretch, this rain sure was welcome!
II. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will remain in the forecast today- especially across southeast portions of the state. From Indianapolis and points north, we’ll begin to really notice the drier air that will take hold later this evening.
III. An extended stretch of dry, pleasant late summer weather is expected for the rest of the week and into the weekend, thanks to high pressure.
IV. The tropics will begin to turn more active over the upcoming 10 days. I think it’s the “follower” that we’ll need to pay close attention to as we get to the weekend and on into next week. Given the steering current, should this system develop, we’d likely be talking about a tropical storm sitting off the eastern FL or southeast coast early to middle next week.
V. Our August Outlook was posted last night and features an overall cooler than average month, locally. After a quiet week this week, a series of cold fronts will begin to impact our neck of the woods next week. Each front will deliver showers and embedded thunder along with unseasonably cool, pleasant air by early-August standards. More on the specifics here once we get closer!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/07/30/tuesday-morning-rambles-tropics-turn-more-active-and-more-on-the-cool-1st-half-of-august/