Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/focusing-on-wednesday-evening-severe-potential/
Jun 17
We asked this question on our Twitter account earlier this morning. Do you prefer heat and humidity or frigid and snowy? Here’s a look out the back door from the IndyWx.com HQ from this morning and then back to right after the early January winter storm. Note the snow depth on the fence line. Amazing stuff!
Anyway…as we look ahead, we still anticipate an overall regime change as we progress through the upcoming weekend and into next week.
Model data remains in rather good agreement on the evolution of the upper air pattern over the course of the upcoming 7-10 day period. The GFS is a touch more aggressive on the eastern trough when compared to the European, but both agree on week 2 cooling, as do we.
This won’t be tremendously cool air (such as last weekend), but when compared to averages, we’re likely to cool things back to slightly below normal.
The PSD shows the changes, as well. Note the current eastern ridge is replaced by the Day 10 eastern trough.
The precipitation idea is one that is continued wet. Our three primary mid range global models (GFS, Canadian, Euro) agree on widespread rainfall totals of 1.5″-3″ (locally heavier totals where stronger thunderstorms move) over the next 10 days. Here’s a closer look at the Canadian, thanks to the model suite at Weatherbell Analytics.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/still-anticipate-late-june-changes/
Jun 17
|
Tue. |
Wed. |
Thr. |
Fri. |
Sat. |
Sun. |
Mon. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
70/ 90 |
71/ 89 |
71/ 89 |
70/ 86 |
70/ 86 |
70/ 84 |
67/ 80 |
|
– – – |
– – – |
Light |
Light |
Light |
Light |
Light |
Hot and humid will sum things up nicely over the next 48 hours. Prepare to sweat as temperatures approach 90 both days and dew points remain between 65 and 70- oppressive! Better rain and storm chances enter the picture late Wednesday night and remain in our forecast into the upcoming weekend. Periods of locally heavy rainfall can be expected and we’ll also have to monitor for severe potential Wednesday night/ Thursday- with the big concerns being strong winds and large hail. Rainfall potential between tomorrow night and Sunday will reach 1.5″-2″ with locally heavier amounts. Looking further ahead…we still forecast a cooler pattern to develop next week. Much more later!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/hot-and-humid/
Jun 16
Quick video update tonight discusses some of our thoughts as we progress through the week ahead!
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/monday-evening-video-update-feeling-very-much-like-summer/
Jun 16
Walking out the door this morning feels dramatically different than what we’ve enjoyed over the weekend! Not only are humidity levels much higher, but temperatures are 15-20 degrees warmer than what they were this time 24 hours ago across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes.
With the increased warmth and humidity, it’s not going to take much to kick scattered showers and thunderstorms off. That’s exactly what we’re seeing across central Indiana this morning. Locally heavy downpours are possible under any of the stronger storms.
Look at the Northeast region radar snapped at 8am, courtesy of the Penn State e-wall site:
As for precipitation amounts, it still appears as if we’re in a wetter than normal regime over the next couple weeks. As of this morning, we’re officially running 1.56″ above normal at IND year-to-date. A look over a blend of GFS, Euro, and Canadian would imply widespread 2-3″ amounts over the upcoming two weeks, with locally heavier totals where local downpours occur. This is NOT what one wanting a hot pattern to lock in wants to hear.
While warmth and humidity will be the story this week, we still think we turn cooler to wrap up June. We’ve been talking about a cooler than normal pattern developing for late month and latest guidance continues to suggest that thinking has merit. Much more later! BTW- your 7-day forecast can be found here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/monday-morning-weather-rambles-2/
