Highlights:
- Mostly dry and hot weekend
- Humidity levels on the rise Sunday
- Storm chances return
Put On That Sunscreen…High pressure will supply a beautiful open to the weekend, including mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies, low humidity levels, and warm temperatures.
Our airflow will shift to the SW Sunday and help push a more humid air mass back into the state as the day progresses. An isolated thunderstorm could accompany the return of the humid air, but for now we’ll maintain a mostly dry forecast.
Better thunderstorm chances arrive Monday evening into Tuesday as a cold front pushes in from the north. A locally strong to severe storm is possible. As we move forward into the middle and latter parts of next week, models suggest a rather unsettled time of things.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 1″-2″
The teleconnections aren’t much help in trying to generate longer term thoughts. They would favor more of a “normal” period temperature-wise, locally. (BTW, thanks to the fine folks at MAD US Weather and ESRL for the data below).
Looking at some of the model data, the general consensus is for a warm look to go through the back half of the month, but we caution that we can’t simply “broad brush” the forecast through the EOM as warm and relatively quiet (a note on that in a moment).
As mentioned above, despite an overall warm look on the models there will likely be periods of cooler “jabs” and it sure looks like a rather transient pattern to us across the Mid West and Ohio Valley, featuring more of the sustained heat across the Southwest region. Transient patterns usually also yield for potential wetness and we note the GFS Ensembles trending in that direction to wrap up the month.
In the shorter term, there will also be localized heavy downpours, but it’s a continued case of “haves and have nots.” There won’t be any particular rhyme or reason to the specific placement of heavy, gully-washer type showers and storms mid week.
