Category: Unseasonably Warm

Another Picture-Perfect Day…

Screen Shot 2015-08-13 at 9.12.43 AMHighlights:

  • Beautiful weather continues
  • Warmth and humidity returns over the weekend
  • Spotty weekend storm coverage
  • Better storm chances ramp up next week

High pressure remains in control of our weather today and will supply lots of sunshine and continued low humidity.  Get outdoors and enjoy if at all possible!

A frontal boundary will make a run at the region from the north Friday evening and may result in an increase in cloudiness, but we expect any shower and thunderstorm activity that may make it into northern portions of the state to dissipate upon moving into central Indiana.

Small upper level disturbances will have to be watched over the weekend for the potential of sparking an isolated to widely scattered storm, otherwise mostly dry conditions can be expected with continued sunny skies.

Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.50″ – 0.75″

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August Outlook

Before we dive into what we expect for the month of August, here’s a look at where we stand so far for July (with 4 days left as of this post).

This was our July forecast upper air pattern, issued 6.29:

July2015UAHere’s a look at temperature anomalies through 7.27:

ncep_cfsr_noram_t2m_anomWhile overnight lows have been running warm with all of the clouds and moisture, daytime highs have been significantly below average:

tmax30dydevWith four days left in the month, it’s already been the wettest month on record at IND.  The Corn Belt, as a whole, has been quite wet month-to-date.

nws_precip_conus2_mtd nws_precip_indy_mtd precip30dydevAs we progress into August (where does time go) we think we continue in an active pattern, locally, biased cooler than normal and wetter than normal.

AugustUA2015While modeling disagrees with the specifics in regards to the timing, most mid to long range modeling does agree on the overall idea of the hot dome (ridge) backing west and setting up shop over the southwest portion of the country early August which will put our region in (you guessed it) the favorable northwest flow for active weather.  Similar to July, disturbances will ride the periphery of the hot dome to our southwest and offer up plenty of chances for showers and thunderstorms.  That’s not to say we’re looking at setting another record for greatest amount of rain within a month, but it is saying precipitation should be above average yet again.

From time to time the ridge will attempt to expand northeast, but we don’t think it’s potentially until the last portion of the month before the ridge has much chance to encompass our region for any staying power more than a few days.  We suggest getting used to this 500mb look:

EarlyAugThe latest NAEFS and CFSv2 highlights the cooler than normal period we should undergo early August (especially after the 5th).

wk1.wk2_20150726.NAsfcT2015072712_054@007_E1_north@america_I_NAEFS@TEMPERATURE_anomaly@probability@combined@week2_186The latest European Weeklies suggest there may be a window for a “calmer” regime after the 25th.  That said, it’s a rather volatile pattern.

Yet another tool we’ve been keeping a close eye on the past few months has been the SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) as it’s been a big help in tipping us off for prolonged wet weather.  Note the consistent negative SOI:

Screen Shot 2015-07-27 at 11.22.11 PM

 

 

 

 

 

 

World

Not to sound like a broken record, but we continue to think the relentless wet weather pattern “keeps on keepin’ on” as we progress through August.  It’s very interesting to note the dynamics at play between the strengthening El Nino and warm northeast PAC waters… More on that, and the implications we feel for fall and winter, in the weeks and months ahead. 🙂

July2015SST

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Warmth & Humidity Build; Storms Return…

We’ve enjoyed a stretch of dry and pleasant air, but that will come to an end this weekend as warmth and humidity build and help fuel storms at times later…

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Can’t Ask For Anything Better This Time Of Year…

Screen Shot 2015-07-23 at 11.28.22 PMHighlights:

  • Beauty of a close to the work week
  • Humidity and storm chances return this weekend
  • Turning hot ahead of a cold front next week

We simply can’t ask for more beautiful weather this time of year than what we’ll enjoy to wrap up the work week.  (3 day weekend, anyone)?  Make time to spend outdoors today!

Warmth and humidity will be on the uptick this weekend and with the increasingly humid air, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms can be expected.  That said, there’ll be more dry time than not this weekend so there’s no need to cancel any of those outdoor plans.

Heat will build early next week, along with continued “splash and dash” storm coverage- particularly of the PM variety.  Best rain and storm chances should come Thursday as a cold front draws near.

Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.50″ – 1.00″ (locally heavier totals under stronger storms)

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At Odds With Some Of The Modeling In The Mid/ Long Range…

Right off the bat, we tend to lean more in the direction of the 12z GFS and its’ associated cooler look next week, rather than the warm European. It’s a…

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